Friday, May 25, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY,MAY 25, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY,MAY 25, 2018


Though the Markets were expected to attempt to find some stability, the session remained much contrary to what was expected on Thursday. After a tepid start and losing ground in the initial trade, the NIFTY rebounded sharply and nearly tested the 100-DMA. The benchmark Index ended the day gaining 83.50 points or 0.80%.
If we draw a conclusion with a technical angle, the NIFTY has defended the 50-DMA levels at Close which stand at 10471.60. Stepping into Friday’s trade, we expect this attempt of an pullback to continue. However, in any case, the 100-DMA levels of 10538 still remain a concern and we cannot take NIFTY as completely out of the woods as yet.
Friday is likely to see the levels of 10538 and 10595 acting as immediate resistance area. Supports come lower at 10470 and 10380 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 44.16 and it remains neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Daily MACD stays bearish while trading below its signal line. It has started to narrow its trajectory. On the Candles, a strong bullish candle emerged. It has emerged near the support area of 50-DMA and therefore it holds some significance.
The pattern analysis throws up an interesting picture. The 50-DMA rule below the 100-DMA and this indicates likely continuation of short term weakness. The NIFTY has pulled back from near the 50-DMA and this has validated 50-DMA as support for the immediate short term. However, it has still resisted to the 100-DMA mark which stand at 10538.
Overall, again the level of 10538, which is the 100-DMA has come into play again. Though a quiet start is expected and some follow up move may still be seen, the NIFTY can still find resistance at Close levels at 100-DMA. Any fresh sustainable up move shall occur only after the NIFTY moves past and closes above the mentioned level. Until this happen, theoretically speaking, the Markets still remain susceptible to selling pressure at higher levels.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Long positions were seen being built in stocks like BHARTI AIRTEL, STATE BANK, JSW STEEL, PFC, NCC, IDEA, SUN PHARMA, DLF, POWER GRID, KPIT, INFOSYS, ICICI BANK and ITC.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Thursday, May 24, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY,MAY 24, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY,MAY 24, 2018
The session on Wednesday remained damaging on technical terms for the Indian Equity markets. The NIFTY resumed its losing streak after taking a breather for a day and ended the day losing 106.35 points or 1.01%. Besides anything else, it was the confirmation of the breach of 100-DMA which was damaging. After spending nearly first half of the session just below the 100-DMA of 10538, the Index slipped and went on to even breach the 50-DMA level of 10469.
All is not well with the Markets as we step into Thursday’s trade. Though we expect a quiet start to the trade again, we might see some weakness persisting for some more time. The zones of 10380, which is a major 27-month long trend line support and the 10330 mark which is the 200-DMA now remains the sacrosanct support for the Markets.
Given the weakness on some of the indicators, it there are chances that the Markets may test these support areas before it gets oversold. The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 37.19 and it has marked yet another 14-period low which is bearish. The Daily MACD remains bearish while trading below its signal line. A big black candle emerged. The emergence of such candle near the important resistance area of 100-DMA signifies the credibility of the resistance area.
The resistance for any kind of up move remains at 10470 and 10538 levels with supports coming in at 10380 and 10330 levels
Pattern analysis confirms the breach of the 100-DMA levels on the Daily Charts. With the 50-DMA trading below the 100-DMA mark, and with the NIFTY ruling below both of these levels, the area of 100-DMA remains a important resistance area that the NIFTY will have to move past over coming days.
Overall, apart from PSU Banks and some resilience from the IT Index, the weakness had remained across the board. Up moves in NIFTY are likely to remain capped first 10470 and then at 10538 zones. Until these levels are breached on the upside, we will continue to see the Markets vulnerable at higher levels with every pullback. The NIFTY presently remains in no-trade zone and the sessions, just like the previous one, are likely to remain very much dominated with stock specific activities. We recommend refraining from creating any major positions and preserve liquidity to make quality purchases at each lower level. Continuance of cautious outlook is advised for the day.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Fresh unwinding of long positions was seen in stocks like JP ASSOCIATES, AXIS BANK, RCOM, INFOSYS, IDFC, PNB, TATA POWER, RELIANCE, PETRONT,  GRANULES, FEDERAL BANK, DLF, KOTAK BANK and HAVELLS.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY,MAY 23, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY,MAY 23, 2018

The Indian Equity Markets ended its 5-day losing streak and end the day with gains on Tuesday. The gains remained modest as the NIFTY closed with a gain of 20 points or 0.19%. As mentioned in our previous note, the NIFTY continued to resist to the 100-DMA mark of 10538 for the entire day and also ended the day while resisting to this level. NIFTY did achieved some stability on the analyzed lines.
Wednesday’s session is likely to remain on similar lines. We expect a quiet to modestly positive start to the trade. At the same time, the levels of 10538 which is the 100-DMA of the NIFTY will continue to remain a critical level to watch for the immediate short term. It will remain critically important for the Markets to open and sustain above 10538 to attempt a pullback.
Wednesday will see the levels of 10550 and 10615 acting as immediate resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10510 and 10460 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 43.6255 and it remains neutral showing no divergences against the price. The Daily MACD stays bearish while trading below its signal line.
If we look at pattern analysis, the 50-DMA still trades below the 100-DMA mark. This means that the NIFTY is presently under very short term sideways movement and has lost upward momentum over past couple of week. The zone of 10460-10538 is likely to remain a extremely important support zone over coming days.
Overall, NIFTY appears oversold on some of the oscillators. Further, after five days of ending with losses, NIFTY has attempted to stabilize on expected lines. Also, some F&O data also suggest some likely technical pullback happening. We also expect some continuation of short covering in the broader markets as well while quality stocks will continue to see modest purchases being made. We recommend a cautiously positive view on the Markets while continuing to keep overall exposures into check.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Shorts covering was seen in stocks like JSWSTEEL, IDFC BANK, ASHOK LEYLAND, NCC, TV18 BROADCAST, TATA MOTORS, SYNDICATE BANK, FEDERAL BANK, DISHTV, PTC, ICICI PRULIFE, NHPC and TATA GLOBAL.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Tuesday, May 22, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY,MAY 22, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY,MAY 22, 2018

Markets had a thoroughly disappointing session on Monday as after staying very briefly in the green in the morning; it slipped and remained in a falling trajectory all throughout the day. The benchmark Index NIFTY ended the day losing 79.70 points or 0.75%. The broader Markets saw extremely dismal performance with Midcap and  Small Cap universe losing between 1.80% to 2.46%. Poor sector performance was seen in Pharma, Auto, Media, Metal and Realty as they saw losses anywhere from 1.6% to 3.3%.
As we approach Tuesday, the level of 10538 remains extremely important to watch for. This level is the 100-DMA of the Markets. The NIFTY has ended a notch below this level but still remains within its filter.
Tuesday is likely to see a quiet opening and we might see Markets attempting to find some stability at current levels. In any case, for NIFTY to stabilize, moving past 10538 and sustaining above that will be of immense importance for the Markets.
The levels of 10538 and 10590 will act as immediate resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10490 and 10450 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 41.8687 and it has marked a fresh 14-period low which is bearish. RSI, however, does not show any divergence against the price. Daily MACD stays bearish while trading below its signal line. Apart from a black body that occurred, no significant formations were seen on the Candles.
Pattern analysis shows that NIFTY which had broken above 10550-10600 zone which represent multiple resistance area earlier, not only suffered a full throwback but dipped below the breakout level and in the process failing the breakout.
Overall, with the NIFTY dipping below 10550-10600 zones, it now once again trades inside the earlier broad trading zone of 10310-10600. However, it currently flirts with its 100-DMA. It would be important to see if this level is held as support at Close levels. NIFTY presently stays within the filter of this support and for it to stabilize a move above 10538 and sustenance above this level will be important. We recommend keeping overall exposures light in the present scenario. Focus should be now to start reducing the shorts positions if any as the NIFTY is nearly oversold on some of the oscillators. Quality purchases may be made in modest quantities. Cautious view is advised for the day.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Unwinding was seen on counters like HINDALCO, ITC, RNAVAL, PTC, NHPC, ADANI POWER, HDFC BANK, FEDERAL BANK, BAJAJ FINANCE, AXISBANK, VOLTAS and NCC.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Sunday, May 20, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY,MAY 21, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY,MAY 21, 2018

Bearish undertone continued to persist in the Friday’s session as the NIFTY opened negative and remained in the falling channel throughout the session. It ended the day losing 86.30 points or 0.81%. The nervousness was evident on Friday as the political drama shifted to proving majority on the floor on the following day.
What is happening in Karnataka is also being viewed as a prelude to what we can expect in the 2019 general election. Life sprouting out of almost non-existent opposition is seen as a factor which can likely instill political uncertainty in the country. This was first seen during Gujarat assembly elections and now became more evident during the Karnataka polls.
As we step into Monday’s trade, BJP’s resignation even before the floor test is an event that can have knee-jerk reaction in the Markets. There are high chances that the NIFTY might see a weak opening on Monday. However, this being said, it is also likely that post weaker opening, the NIFTY might spend rest of the session trying to improve and in the process, the 100-DMA levels will be very crucial to watch for as a major support at Close.
The levels of 10630 and 10665 will act as resistance for the Markets. Supports come in at 10165 and 10540 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 47.3261. It has marked a fresh 14-period low and this is bearish. RSI does not show any divergence against the price. The Daily MACD stays bearish while trading below its signal line. No significant formations were seen on Candles.
Overall, Monday is likely to turn out to be a volatile day for the Markets. We will continue to see selective buying at any given levels in the sectors that are anyway outperforming the general markets or in the stocks which have posted good results. In event of any possible downside, the 100-DMA levels will be crucial to watch for. Though overall exposures should be kept at modest levels, lower levels can be utilized to make good quality purchases. With political dust nearly settled, Markets may now attempt to find its bottom from lower levels in days to come.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Relatively resilient technical setup is observed in stocks like TATA GLOBAL, MANAPPURAM FINANCE, GUJARAT NARMADA, CADILA HEALTH, UJJIVAN, INDIABULLS REAL ESTATE, KARNATAKA BANK, TECH MAHINDRA, TVTODAY and LINDE INDIA.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com