Saturday, April 28, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR APR 30 THRU MAY 04, 2018


WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR APR 30 THRU MAY 04, 2018


In the week that was, the Indian Equity Markets continued to make a modest advance as the index NIFTY50 inched higher and ended the week gaining 128.25 points or 1.21% on Weekly basis. The volatility in the previous week remained overall less-than-expected and the Markets showed no major signs of any corrective move baring few range bound slightly volatile oscillations. The expiry that happened in the previous week also remained relatively less volatile.
The coming week remains a truncated one with Tuesday being a trading holiday. In the 4-day Week that we have and beyond that, we expect the Markets to continue with it’s up move. However, we might also have to tackle volatile trading environment in coming days. Slightly overstretched oscillators and with volatility remaining at the lowest levels in recent times will keep the Market participants cautious.
The coming Week will see levels of 10790 and 10885 acting as major resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10610 and 10550 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Weekly Charts stand at 60.1670. It remains neutral to the price showing no divergence against the price. Weekly MACD is still bearish while trading below its signal line. However, it is seen sharply moving towards positive crossover over coming days. Apart from a white body that occurred over Candles, no significant formations were observed.
If we run a pattern analysis on the Weekly Charts, it is seen that the NIFTY has ended above the short term 20-Period Moving Average. This means that in routine course of business, we can expect NIFTY to test its upper Bollinger band which stays at 10990. However, it is equally important to note that this is not likely to happen too fast and without any consolidation or minor corrective moves.
Overall, we fairly expect a modestly positive start to the Week and also expect the Markets to remain resilient to volatility, if any, inflicted by global markets. However, we will need to continue to remain cautious about the immensely low volatility that the NIFTY is experiencing. Though we may see NIFTY fairly continuing to advance, it continues to remain vulnerable to volatile profit taking bouts from higher levels. We continue to advise purchasing during dips and at the same time protecting profits very vigilantly at higher levels while effectively rotating sectors.
 A study of Relative Rotation Graphs – does not paint an overly worrisome picture. IT Pack is seen losing its relative momentum and is likely to do so in the coming week as well as it is likely to take some breather. On the other hand, FMCG pack will see relative outperformance against general markets. It is likely to be assisted with AUTO, MEDIA, INFRA, MIDCAP, who is seen improving their relative momentum against the general markets. We will also see overall betterment of relative performance from broader indices like CNX 100, CNX200 and CNX500. All this will collectively prevent Markets from a major slide. On the other hand, METALS and REALTY will see just select outperformance which will remain stock specific in nature. ENERGY is seen faltering on momentum. No major outperformance on week-on-week basis is expected from PSU Banks, Public Sector Enterprises, BANKNIFTY, METALS and PHARMA.
Important Note: RRG™ charts show you the relative strength and momentum for a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance as against NIFTY Index and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.
(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Friday, April 27, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY,APR 27, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY,APR 27, 2018

The Markets ended the expiry day of the April derivative series on a positive note as the NIFTY ended gaining 47.25 points or 0.45%. The session remained absolutely quiet, contrary to expectations. Expiry led volatility was expected but the Markets spent the entire session in a 20-point sideways trajectory. It was only the last 30-minute of the trade that saw the spurt, majorly driven by short covering.
We expect the up move to spill over to Friday as well. With a caveat that we do not have any overnight weakness in the global markets to deal with, we are likely to see a modestly positive opening, though the 10650-mark will continue to pose immediate resistance to the Markets.
Friday is likely to see the levels of 10650 and 10735 acting as immediate resistance levels. Supports come in at 10575 and 10540 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI stands at 63.8754. A bearish divergence is observed as while NIFTY has marked a fresh 14-period high, RSI did not. Daily MACD continues to remain bullish while trading above its signal line.
Pattern analysis of the Daily Charts shows the Markets accumulating in a narrow sideways trajectory after testing its important pattern area resistance. After more than 500-point up move from the immediate lows, the NIFTY is just remaining sideways after testing resistance and is showing no signs of any retracement.
A sideways movement after a strong pullback often translates into a base formation for further up move. Also, the new series is likely to start on much lighter note as well. Contrary to the short positions that were being piled up in the current month, long rollovers were witnessed in the next month. However, we still have to exercise some caution until the levels of 10650 is taken out with conviction. We reiterate to continue to utilize dips into making fresh select purchases. A cautiously positive outlook is advised for the day.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Good technical set up is observed in stocks like ONGC, CGPOWER, HINDZINC, GREENPLY, JAIBHARAT MARUTI, ESCORTS, TD POWER SYSTEMS, NTPC, IIFL HOLDINGS and .

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Thursday, April 26, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY,APR 26, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY,APR 26, 2018

In our previous note, we had expressed caution with regard to the lowest value of VIX seen in recent times along with elevated levels of NIFTY PCR (Put to Call Ratio) and the possibility of the Markets seeing profit taking bouts from higher levels. In line with this analysis, the Wednesday’s session remained much volatile, especially in the second half. The benchmark index NIFTY50 saw 80-point swing before it ended with a net loss of 43.80 points or 0.41% after some pullback from the intraday lows.
We approach expiry of the current derivative series and we expect the session to remain dominated with rollovers. We expect a modestly negative to flat start to the trade but there are high probabilities that we continue to see the Markets oscillating in a capped range with some volatility ingrained in it.
The levels of 10610 and 10650 will act as immediate resistance levels on the upper side. The supports come in at 10535 and 10480 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 61.1110. It continues to remain neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Daily MACD remains bullish while trading above its signal line but it is also seen narrowing its trajectory. Apart from a black body that occurred on Candles, no significant formations were observed.
Pattern analysis now makes it evident that the NIFTY has fiercely resisted to the upper end of the rectangle pattern that it has formed. The levels of 10630-10650 have now become immediate resistance zone for the Markets.
Overall, despite the fact that undercurrent in the Markets continue to remain buoyant, the zones of 10630-10650 have now become a immediate short term important resistance area for the Markets. For any fresh sustainable up move to resume, NIFTY will have to move past 10630-10650 zones and sustain above that. Unless this happens, we will continue to see the Markets remaining susceptible to range bound but volatile oscillations. We recommend remaining moderate on overall exposures and continue to adopt a very stock specific approach for the day.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Short positions were seen being added on counters like ADANI POWER, HINDALCO, SUN PHARMA, AXIS BANK, STATE BANK OF INDIA, NATIONAL ALUMINUM, STEEL AUTHORITY, FEDERAL BANK, VEDANTA, CG POWER, NCC and ITC.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Wednesday, April 25, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY,APR 25, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY,APR 25, 2018

One more session of consolidation took place in the Indian Equity markets as the benchmark NIFTY50 ended the day with modest gains of 29.65 points or 0.28%. Markets saw a quiet opening on expected lines and just when it started to correct in the late morning trade, short covering lifted the Markets. Bulk of the short covering was rollover related in nature.
On Wednesday, we enter the penultimate day of the expiry of the current derivative series. We once again expect a tepid start to the trade. The rollovers will continue to dominate the trade and we once again expect the Markets to trade while continuing to resist to the 10650 zone.
Wednesday’s trade is likely to see 10650 and 10695 acting as resistance levels. Supports come in lower at 10585 and 10510 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 65.4201. It has marked a yet another 14-period high which is bullish. RSI shows no divergence of any kind against the price. The Daily MACD stays in bullish mode while trading above its signal line. No significant formations were seen on Candles.
Pattern analysis shows that despite showing buoyant undercurrent NIFTY has not yet achieved a clear breakout from the broad rectangle trading range. A clear breakout will be achieved once the NIFTY moves past 10650 with some conviction.
Overall,  while having no second doubts on the buoyancy of the undercurrent, we still need to tread the Markets with caution. VIX has dropped to its lowest value in recent time and the NIFTY PCR (Put to Call Ratio) still continues to remain at elevated levels. These factors are likely to keep up move capped on the upside. In other words, with each up move that we see, we are likely to remain more and more vulnerable to profit taking bouts from higher levels. Apart from this, we will continue to see sector and stock specific performances occurring as well. We continue to reiterate to keep protecting profits vigilantly at higher levels while adopting a cautious view on the Markets.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Good technical set up is observed in stocks like GATI, SNOWMAN LOGISTICS, SBI, CANFIN HOMES, BAJAJ FINSERV, GODREJ PROPERTIES, RELIANCE, ONGC, BHARAT FINANCIAL, and RAYMOND.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Tuesday, April 24, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY,APR 24, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY,APR 24, 2018

In what can be termed as a classical consolidation, the Markets failed to sustain at the high point of the day. Very much on expected lines, the higher levels saw some profit taking coming in and the NIFTY pared nearly 50-points from the high point of the day before it ended the session with a modest gain of 20.65 points or 0.20%. If we discount the out-performance of CNX IT Index, which also came off significantly from the high point of the day, NIFTY would have ended with losses.
As we enter Tuesday’s trade, we expect such consolidation to continue to persist in the Markets. Though downsides, if any, may be limited, the zones of 10610-10640 will continue to pose good resistance to any up move in the immediate short term.
Tuesday will see the levels of 10610 and 10650 acting as immediate resistance area for the Markets. On the downsides, the NIFTY may find support near in the 10540 and 10510 levels.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 63.8164. It has marked a fresh 14-period high once again but remains neutral to the prices showing no divergences. Daily MACD stays bullish while trading above its signal line. A spinning top, indicative of indecisiveness of the Market participants occurred on Candles. Apart from this, no major formations were observed.
Pattern analysis shows that despite evident display of buoyant undercurrent, NIFTY has not been able to move past the important pattern resistance area of 10610-10640 zones. This is the upper area of the broad trading range NIFTY had developed over past couple of months.
Fresh shorts were also seen being created as the NIFTY’s future shed nearly its entire premium. We expect such consolidation to continue to exist in the immediate short term. We also expect volatility to persist owing to expiry of the current derivative series. There are high probabilities that Markets continue to witness profit taking bouts from higher levels. We reiterate to avoid creating any major shorts. It is further advised to continue to utilize volatility and downsides to make select purchases with any downsides or profit taking bouts that the Markets may offer. While keeping overall positions moderate, cautious view is advised for the day.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Fresh shorts were seen being added in IDFC Bank, JSW STEEL, SOUTH BANK, DHFL, ITC, WIPRO, ICICI Bank, STEEL AUTHORITY, DISH TV, ONGC, HDFC, TATA GLOBAL and NCC.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Monday, April 23, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY,APR 23, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY,APR 23, 2018

Friday’s session continued to witness a typical consolidation as the benchmark index NIFTY50 oscillated in a capped range and ended the day with a nominal loss of 1.25 points or 0.01%. The Markets continued to show resilience as it recovered significantly from the low point of the day before ending flat.
As we enter into expiry, we see that this is not yet the time when we throw caution to the wind. The Markets on the Daily Chart still continue to remain little overstretched. Though we may see buoyancy continuing to persist, we will still need to protect the profits with each up move that we witness.
Monday’s opening is likely to be quiet. The levels of 10580 and 10625 will act as immediate resistance for the Markets. Supports come in at 10530 and 10480 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 62.6975 and it remains neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Daily MACD stays bullish while trading above its signal line. A spinning top that occurred on the candles signaled indecisiveness on part of market participants.
Pattern analysis shows Markets continuing to resist at a pattern resistance area. This is the upper range of the broad rectangle formation that the NIFTY has formed. Though Markets are expected to move past these levels, it may not happen without some consolidation happening in the Markets.
Overall, despite buoyant undercurrent that is more than evident, there are certain factors which we cannot ignore. The NIFTY PCR (Put to Call Ratio) still continues to remain at elevated levels. Also, the sharp decline in volatility (VIX) also signals calmness in the Markets. This calmness may become complacency and may itself become cause of return of some volatility. We will also see expiry happening this week as well. If we take a cumulative view of all of these factors, though it may not be a time to start shorting the Markets but it is certainly a time where we continue to protect our profits vigilantly at higher levels. A cautiously positive view is advised for the day.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Resilient technical set up is observed in stocks like CGPOWER, HINDZINC, GODREJ PROPERTIES, HINDALCO, ASHOK LEYLAND, CYIENT, BEL, TECH MAHINDRA, BATA INDIA and UPL.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com