Saturday, April 21, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR APR 23 THRU APR 27, 2018


WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR APR 23 THRU APR 27, 2018

 In our previous Weekly note, we had mentioned about the possibilities of the Markets consolidating and at the same time showing resilience as compared to its global peers. While trading on expected lines, what the Markets put on display all through the previous week was classic consolidation. The Markets remained volatile, but remained within a capped range and kept recovering from the lows while showing resilience which demonstrated continuing buoyant undercurrent. NIFTY ended this week with net weekly gains of 83.45 points or 0.80%.
As we approach trade in the coming week which will also see expiry of the current derivative series, we see this consolidation spilling into the coming Week as well. With Markets still resisting at a pattern resistance area on the Daily Charts, it remains overstretched a bit and it would be no surprise if we see some corrective bouts from higher levels in coming days.  Markets are still not completely done with its consolidation and some minor corrective moves should not come as a surprise to anyone.
Coming week will see the levels of 10610 and 10690 acting as resistance area. Supports are expected to come in at 10580 and 10375 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Weekly Chart is 57.1979. It continues to remain neutral showing no divergence against the price. Weekly MACD is bearish and it trades below its signal line. No significant formations were seen on Candles.
Pattern analysis reveals that as of now we continue to remain comfortably in the 27-month long upward rising channel. Despite a minor downward  breach couple of weeks back, NIFTY has managed to crawl back once again into the upward rising channel.
Overall, next week will once again see attempts by the Markets to move out of the consolidation and inch higher. However, higher levels may not come easily and we might see some good amount of volatility creeping into the Markets once again. NIFTY PCR (Put to Call Ratio) once again remains at slightly uncomfortable levels. With consolidation imminent, we reiterate and advise to vigilantly protect profits at higher levels. Though select purchases may be made, profits should be religiously protected with each up move that the Markets may offer in coming days.
A study of Relative Rotation Graphs – shows  in line with what was mentioned in our previous sectoral view, IT arrested its loss of momentum and relatively outperformed the general Markets. The broader indices like CNX100, 200, NIFTY Next 50, and NIFTY MID50 continued to show improvement in the relative momentum against the general markets and this is likely to be seen in coming week as well. Apart from this, we will see stocks from AUTO, FMCG, ENERGY and FINANCIAL SERVICES continuing to improve its relative performance. Select stocks from METAL and  REALTY will see selective outperformance. Apart from this, BANKNIFTY, PSUBANKS, CNXPSE, and PHARMA are not expected to put up and major out-performance.
Important Note: RRG™ charts show you the relative strength and momentum for a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance as against NIFTY Index and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.
(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Friday, April 20, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY,APR 20, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY,APR 20, 2018

Though the Equity Markets ended with gains on Thursday, the session remained extremely range bound and the benchmark Index NIFTY oscillated in a 20-point range throughout the day making no directional headway. The Index gained 39.10 points or 0.37% but showed no conviction on either side.
As we approach the last trading day of the week, we see Friday’s trade getting initiated on a quiet note once again. The Markets are showing lot of inherent buoyancy but if we speak of immediate short term, some consolidation is now getting long overdue. It would be healthy for the Markets if it spends some time oscillating in a capped range. This will make the current pullback more healthy, sustainable and potent to scale higher levels.
The Friday’s trade will see the levels of 10580 and 10625 act as resistance levels. Supports have shifted littler lower at 10510 and 10465 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 62.8027. While it marked a fresh 14-period high, it remained neutral against the price showing no divergence of any kind. While Daily MACD continued to stay bullish, no significant formations were observed on Candles.
Pattern analysis of the Daily Charts shows the Markets trying to break out from the pattern resistance area that it is being encountered. The Markets are trying to break out from a rectangle formation which resulted out of a broad trading range.
Overall, it is beyond doubts that the inherent buoyancy in the Markets is quite visible. However, the current structure on the Daily Charts looks bit overstretched and possibilities of a profit taking bouts from higher levels cannot be ruled out. NIFTY PCR (Put to Call Ratio) which is currently at relatively higher levels might restrict the up move as well. We strongly advise to refrain from creating shorts as the undercurrent remains bullish. However, with possibilities of Markets encountering volatile profit taking bouts at higher levels, vigilant protection of profits is advised. While adopting a very cautious view on the Markets, all profit taking bouts, if any, should be continued to be used for making select purchases.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Fresh long positions were seen being added in VEDANTA, JSW STEEL,  NATIONAL ALUMINUM, IFCI, SOUTH BANK, TATA MOTORS, GODREJ PROPERTIES, CENTURY TEXTILES, ITC, POWER GRID, LARSEN & TOUBRO and ONGC.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Thursday, April 19, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY,APR 19, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY,APR 19, 2018

Consolidation crept into the Indian Markets on expected lines. The second half of the session took a volatile turn as the NIFTY pared nearly 90-points from the high point of the day. Though some recovery was seen, the benchmark index ended the day losing 22.50 points or 0.21%.
The consolidation that we saw creeping in is likely to persist on Thursday as well. As we go into the trade on Thursday, we expect a quiet start to the trade. The zones of 10570-10590 will continue to act immediate resistance for the Markets.
However, this being said, looking at the F&O data, the consolidation that we are expecting is not likely to last long. Despite some volatility, it is also likely to have limited downsides.
We see the area of 10570 and 10610 acting as immediate resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10480 and 10450 levels.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 60.83 and it remains neutral showing no divergence to the price. The Daily MACD stays bullish while trading above its signal line. No significant formations were seen on Candles.
Pattern analysis suggests that the NIFTY resisted at the upper range of the broad rectangle formation that was created. Currently, we expect this resistance area to hold and we expect some consolidation taking place in a ranged movement on either side.
Overall, even after nine days of gain, the NIFTY not registering any major loss is a sign of underlying strength. However, given the present structure of the Markets on the Daily Charts, some consolidation is very much imminent. We expect Thursday’s session to remain range bound. Volatility is likely to continue to persist but downsides, if any, will remain limited. We reiterate maintaining stock specific approach for Thursday. Volatility should be used to make select purchases while continuing to protect profits at higher levels.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Favorable technical setup is observed in BHARTI AIRTEL, IDFC, ZEE ENTERTAINMENT, M&M FINANCIAL, AMARA RAJA BATTARIES, GREAVES COTTON, ROLTA INDIA, THOMAS COOK, GODREJ INDUSTRIES and COLGATE PALMOLIVE.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Wednesday, April 18, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY,APR 18, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY,APR 18, 2018

NIFTY continued with its gaining streak and ended the ninth consecutive session in green as it ended on Tuesday with net gains of 20.35 points or 0.19%. Though the session ended with just modest gains, it saw a V-Shaped intraday recovery. What was seen on Tuesday was a classical consolidation while the NIFTY still tested its important near term pattern resistance.
As we approach Wednesday, as mentioned in our previous note, the zones of 10550-10575 will continue to pose immediate resistance to the Markets. Though the underlying buoyancy remains very much visible, the Markets are also set to continue to consolidate a bit more before a clear up move continues.
The levels of 10575 and 10610 will act as immediate resistance area for the Markets while supports will come lower at 10510 and 10465 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart stands at 62.6075. While it remains bullish forming a fresh 14-period high it continues to remain neutral showing no divergences against the price. The Daily MACD stays bullish while trading above its signal line. A Hanging Man that emerged on Candles shows likely creation of reversal top and can temporarily halt the up move.
Pattern analysis shows the NIFTY resisting to the 10550-10575 zones which is the strong pattern resistance are for the Markets. It is the upper range of the broad rectangle formation which was created since February. This range was breached but during the pullback, the NIFTY managed to crawl back inside it.
Overall, there are no doubts that the undercurrent remains extremely bullish. The NIFTY is adding Open Interest with each up move this shows buoyant intent of the Market participants. However, given the overstretched nature of few oscillators and given the present structure of the Charts, some consolidation in form of range bound movements with limited downsides remains imminent. This will bring with itself fair amount of volatility as well. We reiterate our advice of protecting profits at higher levels while continuing to rotate stocks effectively while maintaining a cautious view on the Markets.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Long positions were seen being built in POWERGRID, SOUTH BANK, ICICI BANK, BHARTI AIRTEL, NTPC, HINDALCO, L&TFH, TITAN, TATA GLOBAL, NCC, NATIONAL ALUMINUM, ITC and FEDERAL BANK.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Tuesday, April 17, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY,APR 17, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY,APR 17, 2018


A remarkable resilience was put on display by the Indian Equity Markets on Monday as the Index opened lower, recouped all of its losses by afternoon and ended with gains. The NIFTY closed the day gaining 47.75 points or 0.46%. In our previous note, we had expected the Markets to put up a resilient show. However, this being said, the NIFTY has ended with gains for the 8th day in a row.
As we approach Tuesday, there are no second thoughts and the Markets are continuing to display a buoyant undercurrent. In the same breath, it is time that we now approach the Markets with caution. Some consolidation at current or little higher levels seem imminent it is time that we approach each up move with a pinch of additional caution.
For a healthy up move to continue, the Markets seen overripe for some consolidation. Tuesday will see the levels of 10550 and 10580 posing resistance to the Markets. Supports come in at 10490 and 10450 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Charts stand at 61.6643. It marks yet another 14-period high which is bullish. RSI continues to remain neutral showing no divergence against the price. Daily MACD remains bullish while trading above its signal line. On the Candles, an engulfing bullish pattern has occurred. It is important to note that if such pattern emerges during an up move, it has a potential to temporarily halt the present up trend and push the Markets towards some consolidation.
While having a look at pattern analysis, it remains evident that the NIFTY looks little overstretched on certain oscillators. Further, if we have a simpler look, the NIFTY is approaching its important pattern resistance which lies in the 10550-10580 zones.
Overall, we are likely to see undercurrent remaining extremely buoyant. However, we also expect some volatility to creep in and some range bound consolidation to occur. For a healthier continuation of the current up move, it would be necessary for the Markets to consolidate a bit. We will see the session remaining highly stock specific and select out-performance will continue. While remaining light on overall exposure, proper rotation of sectors and stocks is advised while protecting profits at higher levels.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Technically buoyant set up is observed in stocks like INDIABULLS REAL ESTATE, SAIL, JAIN IRRIGATION, JINDAL POWER, CIPLA, CGPOWER, HIND ZINC, VEDANTA, ASHOK LEYLAND, NCC, NOCIL, EXIDE INDUSTRIES and GRASIM.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Monday, April 16, 2018

Tech charts signal a major spike in Brent crude in coming weeks


15APR2018

BRENT CRUDE SHOWING ALL SIGNS OF INCHING HIGER IN COMING WEEKS

Professional Technical Analysts often argue if you know your Charts well, you can see much beyond the price. It is sometimes wonderful to see that even if one is not completely aware of the fundamental inputs; Market Participants know it all and it all gets discounted in the price. In other words, Charts reflect all. The fundamentals picture, the psychology and the consensus of the Market Participants.

Once such good example is the Brent Crude.  The below picture shows how the total Oil inventories of the OECD countries peaked in 2016 and after that it shows how consistently it has dropped ever since. When compared against their 5-year averages, the OECD stocks are seen consistently reducing and very near to getting into negative.


One would not require Einstein’s brain to understand that the glut of stored oil among industrialized economies – which helped keep prices low for years – has shrunk after production cuts by OPEC and Russia. This has not only set prices higher but it  is likely to push it higher significantly over coming week.

This gets wonderfully reflected on the Technical Charts. Let us examine the Weekly Technical Charts of Brent Crude and see how wonderfully it corroborates the above picture and reflects all that we discussed above. 

The below  Chart gives several indication which point towards up move in prices of Brent Crude over coming weeks.


·         A  Golden Cross is seen with 50-Period Moving Average crossing the 200-Period Moving Average from below. This often signals initiation of a prolonged up move in prices
·         After good accumulation, a big white candle appearing near the 20-Period Moving Average point towards attempt for a fresh break out.
·         On Balance Volume – OBV is moving towards a fresh high while the prices consolidate. This shows inherent buoyancy.
·         Prices ended above their upper Bollinger band. Though some temporary retracements inside the bands may be seen but this also point towards likely initiation of a fresh up move in prices.

It would be no surprise if we see Crude prices moving higher over coming weeks.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY,APR 16, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY,APR 16, 2018
Indian Equity Markets continued with its winning streak on Friday as well as the benchmark index NIFTY inched up further and ended the day with net gains of 21.95 points or 0.21%. Despite the Markets ending with modest gains, the Markets have started to show some signs of consolidation. Few signs of some fatigue are evident and there are bright chances that the Markets may take some breather for a while before it prepares to continue with its up move again.
Apart from the fact that the Markets looks little tired and overstretched on Daily Charts, the strikes on Syria carried out jointly by US, UK and France are likely to infuse some volatility in the global trade as well once again. However, these jitters may be short lived but in any case the present structure of the Charts point towards from highly probable range bound consolidation.
The Monday will see levels of 10535 and 10560 will act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. Supports come in at 10430 and 10410 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 59.4349 and it has continued to mark yet another 14-period high which is bullish. RSI remains neutral to the price showing no divergence. Daily MACD stays bullish while trading above its signal line. No significant formations were observed on Candles.
Pattern analysis show some indicators which are little overstretched. They do not hold any potential to trigger any significant downsides in the Markets. However, they certainly can push the Markets into some consolidation in the immediate short term.
Overall, there are some chances of global trade triggering some volatility but in any case, the consolidation is what is expected and no major downsides are seen. Whatever volatility that we may witness is expected to remain range bound. We advise to keep overall exposures moderate at higher levels and vigilantly protect profits as well. Downsides, if any, will present opportunity to make quality purchases once again.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Long positions were seen being added in NATIONAL ALUMINUM, RCOM, HCC, ASHOK LEYLAND, IDFC BANK, TECH MAHINDRA, SAIL, HINDALCO, KPIT, COAL INDIA, NTPC, ESCORTS and FEDERAL BANK.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com