Saturday, March 24, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 THRU MAR 30, 2018


WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 THRU MAR 30, 2018


While the global markets reacted bitterly in what is seen as a trade war initiated by US mainly targeting Chine, the Indian Markets too ended the week on a weaker note. The benchmark NIFTY ended the week with a net loss of 197.10 points or 1.93% on a weekly basis.
The ending of this week has left us hanging in a precarious manner. On one hand, the lead oscillators points towards Markets dealing with oversold zones, there is also a potential minor breach of the 27-month long upward rising channel that the NIFTY has been trading in since the beginning of 2016.
Coming week remains short week with Thursday and Friday being trading holidays. Nevertheless, it remains extremely tricky as well. We head into expiry of the current derivative series in this short week on Wednesday. Though NIFTY may struggle to pullback a bit, the levels of 200-DMA have established themselves as a major resistance area for the Markets to conquer. The zones of 9980-9920 will continue to offer important support. There are possibilities that the NIFTY attempts a minor pullback but the week surely promises to remain tricky.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Weekly Charts is 41.2805 has reached the lowest value in last 14-period which is bearish. However, it does not show any divergence against the price. The Weekly MACD stays bearish while trading below its signal line. No major formations were observed on Candles.
The pattern analysis of the Weekly Charts shows two important things. First, the NIFTY has slightly breached the 27-month long upward rising channel. Though the breach as of now is not a major one, but it certainly remains an important one. On the other hand, the NIFTY is seen taking support on the 50-Period Moving Average on the Weekly Charts. NIFTY had move above this 50-Period Moving Average in early 2017and had never tested it since then.
All in all, the conclusion that we can draw from this is that the NIFTY though has shown a minor breach on the Weekly Charts, there are still chances of it finding stability subject to some stability in the global Markets. However, given the shorter week, we do not see any runway up move or a pullback in the Markets. Avoiding fresh positions, preserving cash and approaching markets with great caution is what is advised for the coming week.
 A study of Relative Rotation Graphs – RRG this week show that there are not much places left to hide. However, we expect resilient performance from pockets of IT, Financial Services, Services and FMCG pack. Also, isolated out-performances may come from NIFTY Junior,  and ENERGY universe. Apart from this, no major relative out-performances are expected this week.
Important Note: RRG™ charts show you the relative strength and momentum for a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance as against NIFTY Index and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.
(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Friday, March 23, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, MAR 23, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, MAR 23, 2018

Corrective undertone continued to persist as the Indian Equities continued with its modest slide. The benchmark index NIFTY failed to sustain once again above 200-DMA after enjoying a modestly positive opening and finally ended the day with modest loss of 40.50 points or 0.40%. The session continued to remain volatile but also remained in a capped range.
As we approach Friday, the analysis remains once again on similar lines. The NIFTY has resisted to the 200-DMA which stand at 10171 now and unless NIFTY moves past this level, this level will continue to pose a resistance to the Markets at Close levels.
We are expected to see a quiet opening once again. However, the levels of 10170 and 10135 will continue to offer strong resistance area for the Markets. Supports continue to remain at 10040 and 9980.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 36.4130 and this continues to remain neutral showing no divergence against the price. Daily MACD stays bearish while it trades below its signal line. No significant formations were observed on Candles.
Having a look at pattern analysis, it is seen that the NIFTY dipped below the 200-DMA at Close and while attempting to pullback, this level has offered a stiff resistance. Any pullback will be seen only after the NIFTY moves past and closes above the 200-DMA.
Having said this, the oscillators have begun to turn upwards for the Index on the Daily Charts while being still oversold on the Weekly Charts. The level of 10040 will continue to offer a strong pattern support for the Markets. However, it would s till remain important to note that in spite of any strong opening that the Markets may see at opening of during the session, unless it ends itself above 200-DMA, it will continue to remain vulnerable to sell offs. We continue to recommend approaching markets on a very cautious note until it throws an imminent pullback taking it above 200-DMA at close.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Good technical set up is observed on counters like BAJAJ FINSERV, CG POWER, VEDANTA, HINDZINC, INDUSIND BANK, IDFC, RELIANCE, TATA POWER, TATA MOTORS, HINDALCO and NTPC.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Thursday, March 22, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, MAR 22, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, MAR 22, 2018

In what seemed to be a strong and sustainable pullback on Wednesday, the NIFTY failed to sustain above the 200-DMA levels. The intraday gains fizzled out and Markets came off significantly from the high point of the day. After great amount of volatility, NIFTY ended the day with a modest gain of 30.90 points or 0.31%. The NIFTY has resisted to the 200-DMA at Close levels after breaching that level a day before. The levels of 200-DMA will continue to pose a threat to the NIFTY in the immediate short term.
Going into trade on Thursday, we expect a similar behavior from the Markets. A modestly positive opening to the trade is expected once again but it would be imperative for the Markets to move past the 200-DMA mark which stands at 10168. Longer the Markets remain below 200-DMA, more vulnerable it will remain to the selling bouts.
Thursday will see the levels of 10170 and 10245 playing out as immediate resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10040 and 9980 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 38.0574 and it remains neutral showing no divergence to the price. Daily MACD continues to remain bearish while trading below its signal line. No significant formations were seen on the Candles.
Going by the pattern analysis, it is seen that the NIFTY did breach its 200-DMA levels at Close a day before but stayed within its filters. A pullback was attempted but it resisted at the 200-DMA which it had marginally breached in the previous session.
Overall, NIFTY still continues to remain on tenterhooks on expected lines. It would be important for the Markets to move past and sustain above the 200-DMA at the earliest to form a temporary bottom once again. Staying below the 200-DMA for long will increase the vulnerability of the Markets for some more weakness. However, the oversold nature of important oscillators on both Daily and Weekly Charts point towards larger chances of a technical pullback. While remaining moderate on the overall positions, continuance of a cautious outlook is advised for the day.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Fresh longs were seen being added in stocks like JSW STEEL, DLF, PFC, RPOWER, BHARTI AIRTEL, RECLTD, ITC, NTPC, ASHOK LEYLAND, MARICO, ONGC, RELIANCE CAPITAL and RELIANCE INDUSTRIES.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Wednesday, March 21, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, MAR 21, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, MAR 21, 2018

Despite ending below 200-DMA on the previous day, Tuesday’s trade saw a volatile attempt by the Indian Markets to keep itself afloat and avoid any serious breakdown. The benchmark Index NIFTY 50 saw itself in a capped range during the day oscillating back and forth while struggling to keep its head above the crucial 10040-mark. The Markets finally ended with net gains of 30.10 points or 0.30%.
As we approach Wednesday’s trade, we can expect technical pullback by the Markets. A modestly positive start is expected but in any case NIFTY will have to move past the 10166-mark to stay successfully afloat and avoid any major breakdown. 10166 is the 200-DMA. Given the oversold nature of the oscillators, even if the NIFTY does not immediately find its bottom, there are larger chances of a pullback than a outright breakdown from current levels.
The levels of 10166 and 10245 will act as immediate resistance for the Markets. Crucial supports come in at 10040 and 9980 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 36.0100 and it remains neutral showing no divergences against the price. The Daily MACD is bearish while it trades below its signal line.
Pattern analysis shows that the NIFTY has continued to resist to the 200-DMA on the upside while attempting to pullback. It will have to move past 10166-mark at the to have a sustainable and serious pullback. Until this happens, NIFTY remains vulnerable to volatile oscillations with 10040 acting as its support.
Overall, NIFTY is not completely out of the woods as yet but it certainly remains oversold on some oscillators. This makes it likely that even if it remains in continuing downtrend, it gives some decent technical pullback. However, the moving past and closing above 10166 will be crucial for the NIFTY to avoid any major breakdown. We will recommend avoiding any major shorts at this juncture. Cash should be preserved and extremely select stock specific purchases may be made. Continuance of cautious outlook is advised until we see NIFTY moving past 10166 in a convincing manner.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Resilient technical is seen on stocks like BHARTI INFRATEL, TATA STEEL, CG POWER, VEDANTA, TATA POWER, MERCATOR, ZEE ENTERTAINMENT, BEML, MARUTI, BHARAT FINANCIAL and GRASIM.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Tuesday, March 20, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, MAR 20, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, MAR 20, 2018

Indian Equity Markets had a very disappointing session as the NIFTY slipped below its very crucial 200-DMA to end the day below it. Markets remained in the declining trajectory for the entire session and the NIFTY ended the day losing 100.90 points or 0.99%. Advance-Decline Ratio remained heavily in favor of the declines.
As we approach Tuesday’s trade, we stare at a probable break of key support levels. We are presently dealing with the two most important support levels of the recent past. The first level is 10163 which is the 200-DMA on the Daily Charts; and second, is the 28-month long upward raising trend support of 10040. The zones of 10040-10163 are expected to provide very serious support to the Markets failing which we will stare at a possible initiation of a intermediate bear t rend.
Tuesday will see the levels of 10160 and 10230 as a potential resistance area. Supports come in at 10040 and 9980 zones. There are still chances that NIFTY might hold on to these supports at Close.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 34.0379. A bullish divergence is observed. NIFTY formed a fresh 14-period low while RSI did not. The Daily MACD has reported a negative crossover. It is now bearish while trading below its signal line.
If we look strictly at the pattern analysis, though the NIFTY has ended below its 200-DMA, it still stays within its filter. Further, it also eyes another important pattern support of 10040 which remain in very close vicinity. On a theoretical note, NIFTY still has chance to avert more weakness if it manages to crawl above 200-DMA again.
Overall, it would be extremely crucial to see how the Markets behaves vis-à-vis the levels of 10040-10160 at Close levels. The NIFTY will be able to avert the weakness if it manages to crawl back above these levels. However, at the same time, we now have to take into account the fact that if the levels of 10040 is significantly breached, we are staring at some prolonged weakness and the levels of 200-DMA will become a resistance for the Markets in the immediate short term. We advice refraining from taking any major directional view until a validation of the current trend comes. A highly cautious view is advised for tomorrow.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Amid chaos, fresh longs were also seen being added in stocks like NALCO, SRF, TATA COMMUNICATIONS, DIVIS LAB, GAIL, RELIANCE, POWER GRID, STAR, MARICO, GRASIM, PETRONET, LARSEN & TOUBRO and TITAN.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Monday, March 19, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY, MAR 19, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY, MAR 19, 2018

Friday’s session remained weaker-than-expected as the NIFTY opened low, drifted even lower and went on to end the day with a loss of 165 points or 1.59%. Despite the fact that the Markets saw large number of shorts piling up, the Index showed no inclination to recover. A very minor recovery was seen towards the end but it did no good to the overall closing of the Markets.
We open the fresh week on Monday with a little precarious situation. We have been grossly underperforming the global markets on one hand. On the other, we have seen significant amount of shorts that have piled up in the system.
As we approach Monday’s trade, there are two distinct possibilities. We might see a subdued opening and there are chances that the 200-DMA levels of 10161 may be tested and might see some intraday violation as well. Also, there are equally good amount of chances that Markets find support once again at 200-DMA and it is not violated at Close.
We will see very strong supports coming in the 10040-10160 zones. Resistances can be faced near 10245 and 10310 zones on the upside.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 37.6497 and it remains neutral showing no divergence against the price. Daily MACD continues to remain bullish while trading above its signal line.
If we look at pattern analysis, the NIFTY currently stands near to a very strong support of 200-DMA on the Daily Charts. This level is followed by a strong pattern support at 10040. So, in a way, the zones of 10040-10160 pose a very serious and long term support for the Markets.
Overall, though there is no denying to the fact that the zones of 10040-10160 provide for a strong support area. We also take into account the large number of shorts that have been added all through the previous week. However, until the NIFTY at least potentially marks this as a bottom, we need to continue to take a ultra-cautious view on the Markets. The reason is that in even of violation of these levels, we may see some more pain in the Markets over coming days. However, there is still no structural breach on the Charts and given the other piece of evidences; we can expect potential marking of bottoms near current levels.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Shorts were seen being added in stocks like RCOM, ICICIBANK, TATA MOTORS, ITC, IFCI, STATE BANK, INFIBEAM, RELIANCE, SAIL, CGPOWER, BHEL, ENGINEERS INDIA and INDIGO.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com