Saturday, March 3, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 THRU MAR 09, 2018


WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 THRU MAR 09, 2018

 The Indian Equity Markets had a short week as the Markets remained closed on Friday on account of Holi. This week as well, just like two previous weeks, the benchmark NIFTY Index ended on a flat note heading nowhere. The NIFTY saw itself ending the previous week with loss of 32.70 points or 0.31% on weekly basis. If we analyze previous five weeks, the NIFTY ended the first two weeks with loss off 3% each week. Then the remaining three weeks saw NIFTY closing on a flat note.
As we approach the new week on Monday, it is very much likely that we will see a rough start to the week. The global markets have remained week post Indian Markets closed on Thursday. We are likely to see a weak opening to the trade and there are all chances that we see NIFTY testing its immediate support zone of 10310-10275 on Monday. However, it would be extremely crucial to see how the Indian Markets react to these levels. There are high chances that we see some resilience stepping in if NIFTY tests these levels.
The coming week will see the levels of 10510 and 675 as immediate resistance zone for the Week. Supports come in at 10310 and 10250 levels.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Weekly Chart is 53.9312 and it has marked a fresh 14-period low which is bearish. A Bearish Divergence is also seen as the Weekly RSI has marked a fresh 14-period low while the NIFTY has not done so. Weekly MACD stays bearish while trading below its signal line. No significant formations are observed on Candles.
If we have a look at pattern analysis, we see that NIFTY is currently resting at its 20-Period moving average. If we see a negative start to the trade and the likelihood of which is much higher, NIFTY will see a breach of this support area if the week is ended on a negative note.
Overall, the coming week is likely to remain volatile and bit stormy as well. While we cope with the global weakness there will be two situations that we will be dealing with. First, the very likely possible weak start to the trading week and the volatility that will come with it; and second, the behavior of the Markets vis-à-vis the 10-310-10275 support zones. There are high probabilities that we see Markets behaving in a resilient manner if these supports are tested. We advise Market participants to approach this week on a highly cautious note and avoid any significant exposures. NIFTY has added large number of shorts over past couple of days and this may act as support in event of weakness, if any. We recommend approaching this coming week on a cautious note and remaining light on overall exposures.
A study of Relative Rotation Graphs – RRG this week paints a little tricky picture. IT pack which has remained in leading Quadrant is likely to evidently outperform the general Markets on relative basis. The PHARMA, IT and SERVICES stock are seen losing momentum though may lend support on selective basis. METALS also is likely to see select outperformance but his would remain on highly selective basis as it has faltered on relative Momentum in the week that has gone by. But it is still likely to fare relatively better than other sectors. All other sectors like Auto, BankNifty, Media, NIFTY Next Fifty and other broader Indices are steadily losing on both relative ratio and momentum and are not likely to put up any significant performance. Key performers are likely from IT, and select Metal, Pharma and Services sector stocks.
Important Note: RRG™ charts show you the relative strength and momentum for a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance as against NIFTY Index and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.
(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Thursday, March 1, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY,MAR 01, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY,MAR  01, 2018

The benchmark Index NIFTY50 consolidated on expected lines and did not move out of the congestion zone but the session remained much weaker than expected. However, given the global weakness that we witnessed, the domestic equity markets relatively outperformed the other markets. We have a short week as Thursday remain the last trading day of the current week with Friday being a trading holiday. We expect this weakness to persist and consolidation to continue. However, we also strongly expect the 100-DMA to continue to hold on as support at Close levels. No downsides beyond this are expected.
Going into trade on Thursday, the levels of 10535 and 10590 will act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports come in at 10450 and 10435 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 45.3143 and it remains neutral showing no divergence against the price or any failure swing. The Daily MACD still remains bearish though it continues sharply narrow its trajectory and moving towards positive crossover in immediate short term. A falling window occurred on Candles. This is a gap down and usually implies persistence of the downtrend. However, this cannot be read singularly. Given the fact that it is very near to the important support of 100-DMA, it can have limited negative impact.
If we look at pattern analysis, it is clear that the NIFTY still remains in the congestion zone that it has created for itself. It will break out of this zone only after it moves past 10590-mark. Until this happens, it is likely to remain in this zone while trading above its critical supports.
All in all, so long as the NIFTY remains in this congestion area, it will stay at the mercy of its immediate support zone of 10276-10310. However, before that there is 100-DMA which stands at 10437 that it is very much likely to defend. We do not see any likely breach of any of these critical support areas. Apart from banks which will remain largely affected by news flow, we will continue to see bottom fishing in good quality stocks. With no critical supports yet broken, we recommend avoiding shorts and keeping overall exposures at modest levels.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Resilient technical set up is seen in stocks like ASIAN PAINTS, HEXAWARE, OMAXE, EIH LIMITED, SIEMENS, MAX VENTURES, TV18 BROADCAST, FUTURE  LIFESTYLE, BHARAT BIJLEE, DBCORP and KALPTARU POWER.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Wednesday, February 28, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, FEB 28, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, FEB 28, 2018

Tuesday’s session remained much on expected lines as the benchmark Index NIFTY consolidated and remained within the fresh congestion area that it has formed. The Index ended the day losing 28.30 points or 0.27% after spending major part of the session in a sideways trajectory heading nowhere. Going into trade on Wednesday, we again expect a positive start to the trade. However, in the same breath, we also expect some consolidation before the NIFTY moves out of the congestion area.
The levels of 10630 and 10665 will play out as immediate resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10510 and 10480 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 48.6478. This stays neutral showing no divergence of any kind against the price. The Daily MACD is still bearish and it trades below its signal line. However, it continues to move sharply towards reporting a positive crossover. No significant formations were observed on Candles.
While having a look at pattern analysis, it remains evident that the NIFTY has continued to resist to its 50-DMA at Close. It has also resisted to its short term 20-DMA. It is also important to note that the short term 20-DMA has crossed the 50-DMA from above. This may be due to the current consolidation that we have witnessed. This also point towards the likelihood of some more consolidation happening in the Markets.
All in all, it is further important to note that the fresh congestion area that the NIFTY formed after pulling back from the immediate support area of 10276-10310 zones can be the result of either further distribution or likely accumulation. Usually any accumulation pattern is resolved by the price breaking out and moving higher. This will get confirmed only after the NIFTY comfortably moves past the 50-DMA mark. Until this happen, we will see consolidation continuing in the Markets.
The F&O data and chart pattern analysis point towards NIFTY more likely to break out and inch higher but not without some more consolidation. Given this reading, we continue to recommend making select purchases with any available minor corrective move. While keeping overall exposures modest, cautiously positive view is advised for the day.
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Tuesday, February 27, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, FEB 27, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, FEB 27, 2018

Indian Equity Markets had a relatively stable and steady session. The benchmark NIFTY enjoyed a positive opening as the session progressed; the NIFTY steadied further and ended the day with a gain of 91.55 points or 0.87%. Technically important thing to note was that the NIFTY managed to open and move past beyond 10500-mark. Therefore, these levels of 10480-10500 zone will act as support area for the immediate short term.
Going to trade on Tuesday, we can expect a quiet start to the Markets. While we approach the 50-DMA mark of 10617, we expect some minor consolidation to happen. Tomorrow’s opening would be crucial it will be important to see if we still keep inching higher or consolidate once again with the level of 10617 acting as resistance.
Tuesday’s trade will see the levels of 10615 and 10650 acting as likely resistance area for the Markets. Supports will come in at 10550 and 10490 mark.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 50.2279 and it has marked a fresh 14-period high which is bullish. Daily MACD is sharply moving towards positive crossover and we may see this happening in coming days. On the Candles, a rising window occurred. This is usually a gap and often results into continuation of up move.
While having a look at pattern analysis, it is observed that NIFTY has defended and re-validated support of 100-DMA at close levels. Also, it is likely to resist to 50-DMA which stand at 10617. However, over previous days, NIFTY has formed a small congestion zone.
Overall, though some consolidation is likely, but in all probabilities NIFTY has formed a base in the support area zone of 10276-10300 and is likely to inch higher from current levels. The congestion zone that is seen looks like an accumulation. It is likely that post some minor consolidation, if any, we will see the NIFTY inching higher, moving out of this congestion area. This will result into confirmation of the current support levels. We recommend approaching the Markets with a highly stock specific view and maintain a cautiously positive view on the Markets for the day.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Fresh long positions were seen being created in RCOM, TV18 BROADCAST, IDEA, JSW STEEL, SOUTH BANK, RNAVAL, ASHOK LEYLAND, MOTHERSON SUMI, HDIL, HIND ZINC and L&TFH.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Monday, February 26, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY, FEB 26, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY, FEB 26, 2018

In our Friday’s note, we had mentioned that NIFTY has been struggling to find base as current levels and longer it remains around its 100-DMA, higher would be the chances that it moves past that level. The Friday’s session saw the benchmark Index hovering around 100-DMA and then the rest of the session saw the NIFTY steadily inching higher. The session saw NIFTY ending near its immediate support area of 10480-10500 zones, gaining 108.35 points or 1.04%.
Going in to trade on Monday, we expect this follow through up move to happen. We are likely to see the Markets opening on a positive note and might attempt to move past the 10480-10500 zones. The behavior of the Markets vis-à-vis the 10500-mark will be important. The levels of 10500 followed by 10615 are likely to act as immediate resistance area for the Markets.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 44.8467 and it has marked a fresh 14-period high which is bullish. The RSI also shows Bullish Divergence against the price. Though the Daily MACD remains bearish, it is seen sharply narrowing its trajectory and moving towards positive crossover in coming days. A white body occurred on the Candles and this holds significance as it has emerged near the important support area of 100-DMA.
While having a look at pattern analysis, it seems that the NIFTY has formed a base around current levels and going ahead in the immediate short term, the zones of 10276-10310 will hold out as strong support area for the Markets. Also important to note here is that the NIFTY has defended the 100-DMA levels at Close.
All in all, we expect a modestly positive start to the trade. Sooner the Markets move past the 10500-mark and stay above it higher will be the chances that it will see itself inching higher. We strongly recommend traders to strictly avoid attempts to short the Markets at higher levels as it has confirmed the formation of a base for the immediate short term. We will now see sectoral out-performance happening and will see select picking of stocks with each available opportunity. Global scenario remains favorable to this reading as well. Positive outlook is advised for the day.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Resilient technical set up is seen in stocks like JP ASSOCIATES, JAYPEE INFRA, SUZLON, TATA STEEL, JINDAL STEEL, NHPC, ASHOK LEYLAND, BEL, MOTHERSON SUMI and ADANI POWER.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Sunday, February 25, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FEB 26 THRU MAR 02, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FEB 26 THRU MAR 02, 2018

The week that went by saw the benchmark NIFTY ended the with flat once again for the second time as the Index closed flat with minor gains of 38.75 points or 0.37%. If we analyze the past month (i.e. 4 weeks), the first two weeks ended with net loss of 3% each week and the previous two weeks have ended flat with NIFTY gaining 0.03% and 0.37%. Going by this data, we can fairly assume that the benchmark has struggled but fiercely attempted to find base in the support area of 10276-10370 zones.
The next week is a short week with Friday, 30th March being a holiday on account of Holi. We had mentioned last week that longer the Markets remain around 100-DMA on the Daily Charts, larger will be the chances of short covering. Going into trade on Monday, we see that the Indian Markets may get a positive start and it is likely to continue with the up move that it saw on Friday. We are likely to see a follow through move, at least in the initial trade on Monday.
The next week will see the levels of 10300-10276 acting as strong support even if the NIFTY see weakness once again. Though seeing such weakness is relatively unlikely. On the upper side, the zones of 10620 and 10735 will act as immediate resistance area for the Markets.
Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Weekly Chart is 54.9661 and it stays neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Weekly MACD is bearish as it trades below its signal line. On the Candles, a long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal especially when it occurs after a decline.
While having a look at pattern analysis, we see that the NIFTY has taken support at its 20-Period Moving Average on the Weekly Charts. It still continues to remain in the 24-month long upward rising channel and has not shown any structural damage on the Charts post the recent correction. Also, it has evidently out-performed some of the markets which saw correction in the range of 8-10%.
Overall, positive start to the trade is likely to Monday and some follow through up move is expected. The F&O data also suggest that short covering took place and some of the shorts also stood replaced with fresh buying. We will see NIFTY inching towards 10615-10650 in all likelihood. We continue to remain positive for the coming week and recommend making select purchases while continuing to protect profits at higher levels. Shorts may be avoided. Positive outlook is advised for the coming week.
 A study of Relative Rotation Graphs – RRG shows that sectors like PSU Banks, Public Sector Enterprises, (PSEs), INFRA, Financial Services, BankNIFTY, AUTO, have continued to slip further in the lagging quadrant losing both on relatively ratio and momentum. In the coming week, we see that IT is likely to hog the limelight remaining strong relative outperformer along with select Media and FMCG. Media and FMCG remain in leading quadrant but still continue to lost momentum. METAL pack is also likely to see improved relative performance in coming week as it is seen sharply improving its relative momentum when benchmarked against the NIFTY.
Important Note: RRG™ charts show you the relative strength and momentum for a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance as against NIFTY Index and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.
(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com