Saturday, January 20, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 THRU JAN 26, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 THRU JAN 26, 2018

The benchmark NIFTY50 spent the earlier week in consolidating in a capped range but it utilized this week that went by in extending its gains. The Index saw itself ending on a robust note scaling new life time highs. The NIFTY ended the week posting net gains of 213.45 points or 2.00%. The coming week is the expiry week and it would be obvious that we will see the second half of the week remaining dominated with rollover centric activities.

However, apart from this, going into trade next week, the NIFTY faces a tricky situation. We expect the Markets to remain volatile but trade with positive bias. The NIFTY has currently tested the upper trend line of the 24-month long rising channel drawn from beginning of 2016. It would be extremely important to see if the NIFTY attempts a breakout from this entire rising channel or continues to just track the upper rising trend line. In any case, though volatile but range bound profit taking bouts cannot be ruled out, the overall intent of the Markets will remain generally bullish.  The Markets faces resistance in the 10900-10975 zone and then at 11010 levels.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Weekly Chart is 72.8515 and it has marked a fresh 14-period high which is bullish. It does not show any divergence against the price. The Weekly MACD is bullish as it trades above its signal line. A white candle that emerged shows that the  steady upward pattern is  bullish.
The pattern analysis shows NIFTY testing the upward rising trend line of the 24-month long channel that it has formed. It would be important to see if the NIFTY attempts to break out of that channel or simply keeps tracking the trend line posting marginal highs amid volatile consolidation.
Overall, the lead indicator like RSI is seen breaking out of a pattern which is bullish. Further, the NIFTY has closed above the upper Bollinger Band on both Daily and Weekly Charts. This portrays great possibility of the uptrend continuing but the overbought nature of the lead indicators will require Market participants to also remain vigilant at higher levels.

A study of Relative Rotation Graphs – RRG show that PSU Banks have continued to slow down on when seen on a weekly note. However, this week, we may see them consolidate and attempting to regain some momentum. MEDIA, REALTY, SERVICE Sector stocks along with FMCG may attempt to find base and relatively out-perform the benchmark. METAL, on week-to-week basis may pose no major show but might attempt to consolidate its position. No major action is expected from PHARMA and Public Sector Enterprises. Broader Indices may lose some momentum adding volatility into the trade. However, some stock specific out-performances may remain.
Important Note: RRG™ charts show you the relative strength and momentum for a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance as against NIFTY Index and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.
(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Friday, January 19, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, JAN 19, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, JAN 19, 2018

The Markets had an extremely volatile session on Thursday as the benchmark NIFTY50 gave up nearly 100-odd points from the high point of the day to end the day with modest gains of 28.45 points or 0.56%. Though the Markets saw a gap up opening and scaled yet another life-time peak, it also tested its 24-month long trend line of a rising channel on the Weekly Charts from which it reacted. We expect a tepid start to the day tomorrow. Though there are signs of some tiredness in the Markets, we do not see any significant decline but the levels of 10900-mark will act as fierce resistance tomorrow.

The levels of 10865 and 10900 will resist the up move while the supports come in at 10790 and 10775 zones.
The Relative Strength Index—RSI on the Daily Chart is 73.5869 and it has marked a fresh 14-period high which is bullish. RSI trades mildly in overbought territory. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish while trading above its signal line. A black candle emerged on the Daily Chart. However, in the present context this formation holds no significance.
The pattern analysis show the Markets taking a breather after breaking out from the 10490-mark. However, with the Thursday’s intraday high levels, the NIFTY tested a 24-month long trend line of a rising channel and has resisted there.
All in all, tomorrow and for coming days, though no major downsides are seen, the volatility will definitely remain ingrained in the Markets as they are pushed into some more range bound consolidation. We expect the Markets to resist to the 10900-mark tomorrow and 10900-10975 range for the coming week. As of now there are no signs of any exhaustion of the trend but we are likely to see good amount of volatility remaining ingrained in the Markets. We recommend staying away from creating any major short positions and continue to make select purchases with each volatile corrective dip.
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Thursday, January 18, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, JAN 18, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, JAN 18, 2018

In our previous note, we had mentioned about the Equity Markets exhibiting a continued buoyant intent despite some signs of consolidation. While trading on analyzed lines, the Indian Equity Markets saw a tepid start to the trade on Wednesday. After initial limited downsides, the benchmark NIFTY50 saw a remarkable recovery and went on to end the day at fresh lifetime highs while posting gains of 88.10 points or 0.82%. Going into trade on Thursday, we expect this up move to continue. Speaking purely on a technical note, with the Markets ended near the day’s high on Wednesday, the up move is likely to extend itself, at least in the initial trade.

The levels of 10810 and 10850 will play out as resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10750 and 10715 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 72.2986. It shows a Bearish Divergence as the NIFTY has scaled a fresh 14-period high but RSI has not done so. Also, RSI is now in overbought territory. The Daily MACD stays bullish while trading above its signal line. A big white candle that has emerged after a brief consolidation is significant and indicate that some more up sides may be seen.
Going by the pattern analysis, after breaking out above 10490-mark, NIFTY was seen taking breather in form of some brief consolidation. It is now seen attempting to move out of that brief consolidation.
The Markets are seen attempting to move out of a brief consolidation that is created during last couple of sessions. If NIFTY confirms this then it can result into some more up move. The F&O figures continue to indicate a strong undercurrent as well. It indicates that in event of Markets facing some profit taking, it would still remain range bound and it shows no signs of any exhaustion of the uptrend. We continue to recommend making purchases with any minor profit taking dip if that is witnessed. While protecting profits at higher levels, shorts should strictly be avoided as undercurrent remains explicitly bullish.
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Wednesday, January 17, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2018
The Indian Equity Markets halted their winning streak as it chose to consolidate, though in a bit volatile manner. The Markets remained under modest pressure immediately since opening in the green and finally ended the day with NIFTY50 losing 41.10 points or 0.38%. Going ahead from here, the NIFTY has established 10800-mark as its all important immediate resistance and we will see the Index oscillating in a defined range while continuing to resist at this point. It should be noted that the undercurrent remains evidently bullish and we will not see any significant downsides but will certainly see some consolidation happening.
The levels of 10745 and 10800 will play out as immediate resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10645 and 10610 levels.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 67.7798 and it has just crossed below from a topping formation. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence and stays neutral. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish while trading above its signal line. A Engulfing Bearish candle on the Charts show that the up move may temporarily be halted and we may be pushed into some short consolidation once again.
The pattern analysis show the NIFTY halting its up move after breaking above the 10490-mark. Having said this, it continues to display buoyant undercurrent and points towards some range bound consolidation and no major downsides.
All in all, we may see this consolidation persist for some time however; the possibilities are very less that any major downtrend will emerge. At the most, we expect the Markets to oscillate in a broad range while some volatility will remain ingrained in the Markets. With no signs of any major downsides whatsoever, we recommend refraining from creating any major short positions. Though cash should be preserved and it is advised to remain highly stock specific. However, long bias should be maintained while approaching the Markets on a cautious note.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Tuesday, January 16, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, JAN 16, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, JAN 16, 2018

Indian Equity Markets had a robust start to the Week as the benchmark NIFTY opened higher on expected lines. It scaled yet another fresh peak and though it came off slightly from the high point of the day, still posted gains of 60.30 points or 0.56%. Markets have not officially confirmed its breakout from the 10490-mark and has placed itself into unchartered territory. We expect yet another modestly positive start to the Markets. However, going into trade on Tuesday, we cannot ignore the fact that the Markets are now overbought and may face stiff overhead resistance in the 10800-10850 zones while it tests the 24-month long upward rising trend line on the Weekly Charts.
The levels of 10780 and 10825 will play out as immediate resistance area while the supports will come in at 10690 and 10610 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 72.9336 and it has marked a fresh 14-period high which is bullish. Daily MACD stays bullish while trading above its signal line. On the Candles, a Rising Window occurred. Normally this would imply continuation of uptrend. However, in the present context of the Markets being overbought in nature, might have to make extra efforts for the continuation of up move.
The pattern analysis shows the NIFTY comfortably cruising ahead after a breakout from the 10490-mark and further up after a brief breather and consolidation in between. It is clearly seen inching higher towards its overhead resistance area which falls near the 10800—10850 mark.
Overall, the structure of the Chart and the F&O data point towards likely continuation of up move, we cannot ignore the overbought nature of the Markets. This may result into some volatile profit taking bouts from higher levels. However, as of now, the intent of the Markets remain remarkably buoyant. Though there is some more steam left in the Markets to inch higher, we recommend making select purchases. However, this should be done with extreme caution and with very vigilant protection of profits at higher levels.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Monday, January 15, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY, JAN 15, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY, JAN 15, 2018
The session on Friday remained much volatile while the benchmark NIFTY50 swung nearly 80-odd points back and forth amid good amount of volatility.  The Markets saw a sharp decline in the late morning day while dipping to the day’s low of 10597.10, but recovered over 80-points before ending the day with net gains of 30.05 points or 0.28%. The Markets have ended the day near the high point and speaking purely on technical note, the Markets are expected to open modestly into the green and continue with its up move, at least in the initial trade.  Though the technicals remain slightly overstretched on the Daily Charts, some more upticks with intermittent corrective bouts may not be ruled out.
The levels of 10705 and 10760 will play out as immediate resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10655 and 10610 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 69.8058 and it has continued to mark its 14-period high which is bullish. It does not show any divergence against the price. Daily MACD is bullish while it trades above its signal line. On the Candles a Doji emerged. Also a candle with a long lower shadow emerged. However, these have occurred during an uptrend and the Doji has not gapped above the previous bar and therefore they are less significant in the present context.
The pattern analysis clearly show the rally that emerged after the NIFTY broke above the 10490-mark being extended further. There are chances that the NIFTY  tests the 10750-10775 mark and thereafter sees some corrective consolidation happening again.
Overall, there is still some steam left in the Markets to extend its present rally before it starts consolidating again. However, this further up move may be accompanied with minor corrective bouts. Also, we expect the coming sessions to remain somewhat ingrained with volatility as well. With no signs of any retracements, we recommend picking select stocks and keep effectively rotating the sectors while the Markets reaches for its over-head resistance area once again. Cautious optimism is what is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member: 

CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK  

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331