Tuesday, May 22, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY,MAY 22, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY,MAY 22, 2018

Markets had a thoroughly disappointing session on Monday as after staying very briefly in the green in the morning; it slipped and remained in a falling trajectory all throughout the day. The benchmark Index NIFTY ended the day losing 79.70 points or 0.75%. The broader Markets saw extremely dismal performance with Midcap and  Small Cap universe losing between 1.80% to 2.46%. Poor sector performance was seen in Pharma, Auto, Media, Metal and Realty as they saw losses anywhere from 1.6% to 3.3%.
As we approach Tuesday, the level of 10538 remains extremely important to watch for. This level is the 100-DMA of the Markets. The NIFTY has ended a notch below this level but still remains within its filter.
Tuesday is likely to see a quiet opening and we might see Markets attempting to find some stability at current levels. In any case, for NIFTY to stabilize, moving past 10538 and sustaining above that will be of immense importance for the Markets.
The levels of 10538 and 10590 will act as immediate resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10490 and 10450 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 41.8687 and it has marked a fresh 14-period low which is bearish. RSI, however, does not show any divergence against the price. Daily MACD stays bearish while trading below its signal line. Apart from a black body that occurred, no significant formations were seen on the Candles.
Pattern analysis shows that NIFTY which had broken above 10550-10600 zone which represent multiple resistance area earlier, not only suffered a full throwback but dipped below the breakout level and in the process failing the breakout.
Overall, with the NIFTY dipping below 10550-10600 zones, it now once again trades inside the earlier broad trading zone of 10310-10600. However, it currently flirts with its 100-DMA. It would be important to see if this level is held as support at Close levels. NIFTY presently stays within the filter of this support and for it to stabilize a move above 10538 and sustenance above this level will be important. We recommend keeping overall exposures light in the present scenario. Focus should be now to start reducing the shorts positions if any as the NIFTY is nearly oversold on some of the oscillators. Quality purchases may be made in modest quantities. Cautious view is advised for the day.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Unwinding was seen on counters like HINDALCO, ITC, RNAVAL, PTC, NHPC, ADANI POWER, HDFC BANK, FEDERAL BANK, BAJAJ FINANCE, AXISBANK, VOLTAS and NCC.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Sunday, May 20, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY,MAY 21, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY,MAY 21, 2018

Bearish undertone continued to persist in the Friday’s session as the NIFTY opened negative and remained in the falling channel throughout the session. It ended the day losing 86.30 points or 0.81%. The nervousness was evident on Friday as the political drama shifted to proving majority on the floor on the following day.
What is happening in Karnataka is also being viewed as a prelude to what we can expect in the 2019 general election. Life sprouting out of almost non-existent opposition is seen as a factor which can likely instill political uncertainty in the country. This was first seen during Gujarat assembly elections and now became more evident during the Karnataka polls.
As we step into Monday’s trade, BJP’s resignation even before the floor test is an event that can have knee-jerk reaction in the Markets. There are high chances that the NIFTY might see a weak opening on Monday. However, this being said, it is also likely that post weaker opening, the NIFTY might spend rest of the session trying to improve and in the process, the 100-DMA levels will be very crucial to watch for as a major support at Close.
The levels of 10630 and 10665 will act as resistance for the Markets. Supports come in at 10165 and 10540 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 47.3261. It has marked a fresh 14-period low and this is bearish. RSI does not show any divergence against the price. The Daily MACD stays bearish while trading below its signal line. No significant formations were seen on Candles.
Overall, Monday is likely to turn out to be a volatile day for the Markets. We will continue to see selective buying at any given levels in the sectors that are anyway outperforming the general markets or in the stocks which have posted good results. In event of any possible downside, the 100-DMA levels will be crucial to watch for. Though overall exposures should be kept at modest levels, lower levels can be utilized to make good quality purchases. With political dust nearly settled, Markets may now attempt to find its bottom from lower levels in days to come.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Relatively resilient technical setup is observed in stocks like TATA GLOBAL, MANAPPURAM FINANCE, GUJARAT NARMADA, CADILA HEALTH, UJJIVAN, INDIABULLS REAL ESTATE, KARNATAKA BANK, TECH MAHINDRA, TVTODAY and LINDE INDIA.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Friday, May 18, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY,MAY 18, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY,MAY 18, 2018

Thursday’s session saw the Markets opening a mildly positive note. Soon after this, the NIFTY saw itself slipping in the red and spending major part of the session in a narrow and capped range. It got weaker by the end and ended the day with a net loss of 58.40 points or 0.54%. Thursday’s session saw the Markets extending its weakness but the NIFTY still continue to trade comfortably above its critical supports.
As we approach Friday’s trade, we expect some stability in the Markets. Even if there is a tepid and tentative start to the trade, 10630-10650 is likely to provide cushion to the Markets. NIFTY presently rests at its short term support.
We expect the levels of 10745 and 10785 to provide resistance to the Markets. Supports are expected to come in at 10650 and 10610 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 54.4640 and it has just reached its lowest value in last 14-days and this is bearish. It also shows Bearish Divergence against the price. Daily MACD has shown a negative crossover and it is now bearish while trading below its signal line. A big black candle emerged on the Candles. However, in the present context it is likely to be less harmful as it has not occurred immediately after an up move.
The pattern analysis show the steady retracement of NIFTY after it attempted to breakout from the 10500-10600 mark which represented the upper and the multiple resistance area for the Markets.  NIFTY presently rests at the short term 20-DMA and is likely to seek some support in the vicinity of this zone.
Overall, the rising crude prices and ever strengthening US 10-YR Bond Yields are doing more damage to the Markets than the external political events. With the political events behind us, the Markets in general are focus more on legitimate technical set-ups than anything else. The elevated levels of NIFTY PCR too point towards some more consolidation persisting in the Markets. That being said, we will continue to see sector specific performances in the Markets as well. With no structural damage as of now, focusing on right stocks with sound set-ups is likely to end up rewarding in such volatile Markets.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Long positions were seen being built in stocks like SUN PHARMA, GRANULES, BHEL, COAL INDIA, BAJAJ FINANCE, BAJAJ FINSERV, UJJIVAN, EQUITAS, WIPRO, HINDUSTAN ZINC, MARICO, PETRONET and SAIL.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Thursday, May 17, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY,MAY 17, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY,MAY 17, 2018

After paring of gains and coming off over 120-points from the high point of the day in the previous session, the NIFTY saw follow-up weakness on Wednesday. The NIFTY opened with a modest gap down and drifted lower. The Markets made an attempt to recover from the lows of the day but still ended the Wednesday’s trade losing 60.75 points or 0.56%.
While keeping the prevailing uncertainties in Karnataka aside, though it does have some short-lived sentimental effect, the present technicals continue to point towards some more consolidation in the Markets.  We are likely to see a quiet opening on Thursday, the previous low and its range would be important support to watch for. The levels of 10680-10700 would be immediate levels wherein the NIFTY might consolidate again.
Thursday will see the levels of 10745 and 10785 acting as immediate resistance levels. Supports come in at 10680 and 10625 zones.
The Relative Strength Index –RSI on the Daily Chart is 60.1660. It continues to remain neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Daily MACD stays bullish while trading above its signal line. On the Candles, a Spinning Top was formed. It has a small real body and signifies a session full of indecisiveness on part of market participants.
Pattern analysis reveals that NIFTY has stalled its up move that it had resumed after suffering a throwback. NIFTY has broken out of a broad rectangle formation as evident from the Charts. However, even after a throwback and subsequent resumption of up move, the NIFTY still appears to remain under consolidation.
Overall, though we can expect some stability to reign in, volatility is still likely to remain very much ingrained in the session. Though any structural breakdown may not happen, but still oscillations within a given range are likely to remain volatile. Also, the higher levels of NIFTY PCR (Put to Call Ratio) still remain a concern. We expect consolidation to continue to happen and the NIFTY is likely to oscillate keeping the range of 10785-10930 as its major resistance area for the immediate short term. Highly cautious and stock specific approach is advised for the day.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Selective longs were seen being added in stocks like ITC, PTC, JAIN IRRIGATION, IRB, HCC, ESCORTS, DISHTV, TECH MAHINDRA, DABUR, CAPITAL FIRST, NATIONAL ALUMINUM, MOTHERSON SUMI, YES BANK and ASIAN PAINTS.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Wednesday, May 16, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY,MAY 16, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY,MAY 16, 2018

The battle for Karnataka infused immense volatility in the Markets as the benchmark NIFTY50 moved over 120—odd points on the either side before ending flat losing just 4.75 points or 0.04%. The possibility of a absolutely majority of the BJP fuelled a rally in the Markets with NIFTY trading over 115-points up from its previous close. However, the second half wherein the possibility of a hung assembly became evident, the NIFTY pared all of its recovery to end flat.
With this political even behind us, and if we inspect the structure of the Markets purely on technical terms, we see that the NIFTY has pushed itself again for some consolidation. As we approach Wednesday’s trade, we see a quiet start to the trade. We are also likely to see volatility remaining ingrained in the Markets. Any slip below 10785 will push the Markets for some prolonged consolidation in the near term.
The levels of 10835 and 10890 will act as resistance levels for the Markets. Supports will come in at 10780 and 10710 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Charts is 66.9352. It remains neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The Daily MACD still remain bullish while it trades above its signal line. On the Candles, a long lower shadow occurred. With this formation occurring after an up move it can potentially stall an up move and can push the Markets into some consolidation.
The pattern analysis saw the Markets failing to break above the 10785 mark. At one point with the Markets trading well above the 10785 mark, it had given a breakout but this was not sustained as the NIFTY pared its gains in the second half of the trade.
Overall, though NIFTY attempted a breakout above the 10785-mark, it is likely that it takes some more time to confirm this. The NIFTY has most likely pushed itself again for some more consolidation. If there is any significant slip below the 10785 mark, some more weakness is likely to creep in. This being said, with the structure on the Charts remaining intact, pain, if any, will remain more visible in the broader Markets than as compared to the frontline Indices. We recommend remaining light on positions and maintaining a cautious view on the Markets. We also recommend utilizing such consolidation dips to make select purchases in the quality stocks.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Short positions were seen being added in stocks like NATIONAL ALUMINUM, CG POWER, NCC, TATA MOTORS, ASHOK LEYLAND, BEL, ITC, PFC, TATA MOTORS, INDIABULLS HOUSING FINANCE, VEDANTA, NBCC  and AXIS BANK.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Tuesday, May 15, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY,MAY 15, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY,MAY 15, 2018

Very much on the expected lines, the session on Monday took the Markets nowhere as the benchmark index NIFTY50 oscillated in a narrow range and ended the day flat gaining 0.10 points or 0.01%. The NIFTY had shown a modest gain in the morning but it pared those gains during the day. The lower levels too did not sustain and the Index ended practically unchanged from the previous levels. However, the levels of 10785 stood defended as of Monday’s Close.
As we step into Tuesday’s trade, we face a domestic event of Karnataka election results. It is likely to instill volatility in Tuesday’s trade. If we speak purely on technical lines, though the levels of 10785-still remain defended, some volatile moves and oscillations in a defined range cannot be ruled out before Markets resumes its uptrend. Presently, it still continues to remain under consolidation.
Tuesday will see the levels of 10830 and 10895 acting as immediate resistance area. Supports come in at 10750 and 10705 zones. Given the likelihood of volatility, the potential range for the Markets remains wider than usual.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Charts stand at 67.4864. It continues to show Bearish Divergence against the price. The Daily MACD stays bullish as it trades above its signal line. On the Candles, a Spinning Top occurred. This is typically a session with very small real body which signifies indecisiveness of the Market participants.
The pattern analysis shows the NIFTY attempting to inch higher after a brief period of consolidation. The NIFTY broke out of a rectangle range, marked a high of 10785 and since then it has been consolidating in a much capped range. Though a breakout has been attempted from this congestion zone, a confirmation is awaited.
All in all, we once  again expect a tepid start to the trade today. The tentative nature of the Markets was evident today and it is likely to remain evident in the Tuesday’s trade as well until the Markets gets clarity on the Karnataka election results. A hung assembly already seems discounted however, a volatile reaction is likely in event of the results turning out in favor of or against the BJP. We recommend remaining light and moderate on overall positions and adopt highly stock specific approach to the Markets. Though shorts may be avoided, fresh purchases may be kept highly selective in nature. A cautious view on the Market is advised for Tuesday.
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Monday, May 14, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY,MAY 14, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY,MAY 14, 2018

The Markets attempted a breakout in the Friday’s session as the Markets opened positive and continued to trade below 10785-mark. However, the second half of the session saw Markets gaining strength and attempted to break out of the consolidation zone it created. It ended a notch above the 10785-mark gaining 89.95 points or 0.84%.
As we step into the fresh week, we have political event of Karnataka election results which is likely to effect the Markets and along with this, it will also infuse some volatility in the trade. With various opinion polls predicting a hung assembly in Karnataka, we might see a tepid start to the trade. In any event, with the breakout not yet been confirmed, the levels of 10785 still continues to remain critical levels to watch for.
Monday is likely to see 10835 and 10880 acting as immediate resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10750 and 10710 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 67.4812. It shows a bearish divergence as while NIFTY marked a fresh 14-period high, RSI did not do so. Daily MACD stays bullish while trading above it signal line. A white body occurred on Candles and apart from this, no significant formations were observed.
Pattern analysis shows that after breaking out of the rectangle formation, the NIFTY suffered a minor throwback after marking high of 10785. After a brief consolidation, the NIFTY has attempted to move past 10785-mark. However, a confirmation to this attempted breakout is awaited.
Overall, apart from the political event of Karnataka election results that is likely to infuse volatility in to the Markets, the 10785 continues to remain critical levels to watch for. Unless the 10785-level is breached on the upside, Markets may continue to remain under consolidation. Internal technicals suggest strength and more likelihood of NIFTY inching higher. We continue to recommend making selective purchases with any opportunity that expected volatility might offer. Though cautious, positive outlook is advised for the day. However, until the results come out next week, we might see tentative approach prevailing in the Markets.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Good technical set up is observed in stocks like VEDANTA, YES BANK, HINDZINC, CG Power,  NATIONAL ALUMIUM, PETRONET, LARSEN & TOUBRO, PETRONET LNG, CAPITAL FIRST and BHARAT FINANCIAL.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Saturday, May 12, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MAY 14 THRU MAY 18, 2018


WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MAY 14 THRU MAY 18, 2018

In our previous Weekly note, we had pointed out emergence of 10785-mark  as not only a likely-lower-top but also an important resistance area for the Markets. The week that went by saw fierce consolidation happening in the Markets and the NIFTY resisted all week along to the 10785-mark. On the last day of the trading week, the NIFTY which had showed so much resilience all through the week, attempted to move past this resistance area. The benchmark NIFTY ended the week closing a notch above this level gaining 188.25 points or 1.77% on a weekly note.
As we enter into next week, the behavior of the Markets vis-à-vis the 10785 level would be extremely critical to watch for. If the NIFTY manages to move past this level in a convincing manner, we will see NIFTY moving towards its previous highs. Any slip below this will push the Markets again into some consolidation.
The coming week will see the levels of 10890 and 10975 acting as immediate resistance area. Supports come in at 10730 and 10610 zones. The range for the Markets is likely to remain little wider this week.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Weekly Chart is 61.9829 and it has marked a fresh 14-period high. Also, RSI is seen breaking out of a pattern and is likely to lend strength to the Markets. Weekly MACD has reported a positive crossover and it is now bullish while trading above its signal line. No significant formations on Candles were noted this week.
The pattern analysis had raised the possibility of the level of 10785 acting as an important resistance mark for the Markets. It had also raised the possibility of it becoming a lower top. However, with the NIFTY attempting to move past this level, the coming week will remain extremely crucial to determine the short term trend of the Markets.
Overall, we are expected to see a modestly positive opening in the Markets if there are no overnight surprises in the global picture. Markets have political event of Karnataka election results to face which is likely to infuse some volatility in the Markets. Apart from this, if nothing untoward comes out of it, we will see NIFTY marking higher levels. We recommend remaining very selective and identify sectors which show strength once directional confirmation is established. Cautious but positive outlook is advised for coming week.
A study of Relative Rotation Graphs – shows though we did see some performance from IT Stocks in the week, it has continued to lose relative momentum on week-on-week basis. The broader indices like NIFTY Next 50 and NIFTY MID50, along with NIFTY INFRA has suddenly seen lows of relative momentum if seen on a weekly note. The coming week is likely to see relative out-performance from AUTO, FINANCIAL SERVICES, and select stocks of BANKNIFTY and PSU Banks which is showing mild improvement in its relative performance. Select ENERGY, MIDCAPS, and REALTY will see selective outperformance against the general Marktes.
Important Note: RRG™ charts show you the relative strength and momentum for a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance as against NIFTY Index and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.
(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com