Friday, November 24, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, NOV 24, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, NOV 24, 2017
It was for the fourth day in a row that the benchmark NIFTY50 desist from giving a clear upward breakout from the 10346-10365 levels and continued to consolidate. It ended with a modest gain of 6.45 points or 0.06% on Thursday after seeing a smart recovery from the low point of the day. Markets not retracing from the current levels is certainly a sign of strength. However, going into trade on Friday, we will still have to watch 10365 level until it is breached comprehensively on the upside.

The levels of 10365 and 10395 will continue to pose resistance for the fourth day in a row. The supports come in at 10280 and 10200 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 58.2127 and it continues to remain neutral showing no divergences against the price. The Daily MACD continues to trade below its signal line and it remains bearish. Candles continued to portray gross indecisiveness on part of the Market participants.

The pattern analysis confirms the intermediate resistance of 10345-10365 zones. However, with the creation of each marginal high, the Markets are currently escaping to formation of a definitive lower top. The NIFTY has pulled back after suffering a 100% throwback and the breaching of the 10365 comprehensively on the upside will see it scaling further highs.

All and all, there is no doubt that the Markets have continued to display some inherent strength and it is not declining after repeatedly testing its resistance zones of 10345-10365 zones. However, until those levels are breached on the upside comprehensively, we will not see any meaningful up move. Also, unless the NIFTY moves past those levels, we cannot under estimate the potential resistance in this area just because the NIFTY is not drifting down much. Over all, for a meaningful up move, we will have to wait for the NIFTY crossing this important immediate hurdle and until this happens, as we have been doing over past several sessions, should approach the Markets with a highly cautious stock specific view while protecting profits vigilantly at higher levels.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)


Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK  


+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  

Thursday, November 23, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, NOV 23, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, NOV 23, 2017
We had referred to the importance of the resistance area of 10345-10365 zones in our yesterday’s note and had underlined the necessity of the  Markets to move past it for a continued up move. The Wednesday’s session played out exactly on the analyzed lines as the Markets opened positive but came off after testing 10368. The benchmark NIFTY50 ended the day gaining 15.40 points or 0.15%. Going into trade on Thursday, the analysis remain on similar lines as the levels of 01345-10365 will continue to pose resistance to the Markets. A quiet opening is expected but it would be of paramount importance for the Markets to move past these levels for a meaningful up move.

The levels of 10365 and 10390 will once again continue to act as immediate resistance to the Markets. Supports come in 10250 and 10200 marks.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 57.7557 and it continues to remain neutral showing no divergences against the price. Daily MACD is bearish as it trades below its signal line but it is seen sharply narrowing its trajectory. The Spinning Top on the Candles continued to portray indecisiveness on the part of the markets participants.

The pattern analysis very explicitly shows the tentative mood of the Markets. After taking support near the 100-DMA, the NIFTY presently has managed to precariously hang on to the short term 20-DMA.

All and all, as we often mention, that without disputing the broad uptrend, the levels of 10345-10365 zones are very important levels to watch. The tentative and indecisive mood of the Markets is very much evident and it would be once again fair to conclude that until these levels are breached on the up side, not meaningful gains would be seen. Given the tentative mood of the Markets and reading along with the F&O data for the immediate short term, we continue to recommend vigilantly protecting profits at higher levels adopting a cautious view on the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)


Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK  


+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, NOV 22, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, NOV 22, 2017
In our previous note, we had expressed strong concerns about Markets resisting to the 10345-10365 zones. In line with this analysis, the NIFTY50 Index saw retracement after testing highs at 10358.70. Going into to trade on Wednesday, we expect a quiet start to the Markets. The zones of 10345-10365 will continue to pose stiff resistance to the Markets in general. We will see sustainable rally in the immediate short term only if these levels are meaningfully surpassed despite the fact that the long term setup remains buoyant and the primary trend remains perfectly in place.

Wednesday’s session will see the levels of 10365 and 10390 continuing to act as resistance levels for the Markets. Supports come in at 10275 and 10180 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 56.4124 and this remains neutral showing no failure swings or divergences against the price. Daily MACD stays bearish while it trades below its signal line. Mixed signals emerged on Candles. A rising window emerged which essentially is a gap and implies continuation of the up move. But at the same time it also had a long upper shadow. When such formations arise, it can damage the impact of a rising window and nullifies the expected bullish implications arising out of it.

Pattern analysis confirms that the NIFTY has managed to cling to its short term 20-DMA which is 10318. It will have to stay above this to avoid any short term weakness in the immediate near term.

All and all, NIFTY50 came off from the highs of the day and resisted fiercely to the 10345-10365 zones. While doing so, it has shed Open Interest. We can fairly conclude that the Markets saw some long unwinding at lower levels. From the technical structure of the Charts and reading F&O data along with it, we fairly feel that we will see consolidation continuing in the Markets in the immediate near term despite the primary trend remaining intact. For any meaningful up move the levels of 10365 will need to be surpassed. Until this happens, we continue to recommend remaining highly stock specific and continue to protect profits at each higher level.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)


Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK  


+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, NOV 21, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, NOV 21, 2017
Indian Equity Markets headed nowhere as the benchmark NIFTY50 oscillated in a narrow and defined range before ending the day with minor gains of 15.15 points or 0.15%. Despite minor gains on Monday, the level of 10345 was not breached on the upside. Going into trade on Tuesday, this level will pose important resistance to the Markets. We might see the Markets remaining vulnerable at higher levels to some profit taking or some consolidation with the zones of 10180-10200 acting as strong base. As of now, NIFTY has attempted to take support at its short term 20-DMA.

The levels of 10345 and 10365 will continue to pose resistance to any up move that the Markets may attempt. The Supports come in lower at 10200 and 10140 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 54.8001 and it remains neutral showing no divergences against the price. The Daily MACD is still bearish while it trades below its signal line. No major formations were observed on Candles.

Having a look at pattern analysis, with the NIFTY not having yet cleared and moved past the levels of 10345, we can consider this as an intermediate short term resistance to the Markets. We can consider it as a lower top formed after 10490 levels marking a formidable resistance area.

As of now, the NIFTY has managed to cling to its short term support of 20-DMA. Also, with the Markets trading above all of the Moving Averages, there are all chances that we still see it continue to consolidate. Despite long term buoyant set up, the Markets will find it difficult to move past 10345-10365 levels and until that happens, we will have to continue to protect profits at higher levels adopt a cautious view on the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)


Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK  


+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  

Monday, November 20, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY, NOV 20, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY, NOV 20, 2017
The Indian Equity Markets reacted positively to the Moody’s upgrade of India’s sovereign rating the benchmark NIFTY50 ended with gains of 68.85 points or 0.67%. Going to trade on Monday, the Markets find themselves in a little tricky situation. We are not disputing the primary uptrend which remains firmly in place, but if we speak of immediate short term, then we may see NIFTY once again being forced into some consolidation. The Friday’s high is likely to pose important resistance despite the long term setup remaining quite buoyant.
The levels of 10340 and 10365 will play out as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. Supports come in at 10250 and 20190 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 53.7832 and it remains neutral showing no divergences against the price. The Daily MACD stays bearish while trading above its signal line. On the Candles, a rising window has emerged. This usually implies continuation of the up move but it requires confirmation on the following trading day.

The pattern analysis makes once thing very evident that the Markets suffered a 100% throwback after breaking out from 10180-10200 zones. In event of any further consolidation, we can expect these levels to act as important support followed by the 50-DMA of the Markets.

As mentioned, despite the overall long term trend remaining firmly in place, the fact that the NIFTY pared nearly half of its gains before Close on Friday would remain an immediate concern. There are all chances that Monday’s session may see the Friday’s high of 10343 acting as immediate resistance and the Markets facing some more consolidation.  We continue to recommend remaining highly stock specific as some isolated out-performances would continue to persist. While avoiding shorts, we recommend cautious view on the Markets for the day.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)


Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK  


+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331