Friday, June 16, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, JUNE 16, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, JUNE 16, 2017
In the Thursday’s session, the Indian Equity Markets continued to witness corrective activities on expected lines as the benchmark NIFTY50 ended the day with net loss of 40.10 points or 0.42%. The Markets once again tested the short term support of 20-DMA which stands a 9577.On Friday, we expect a flat start but in any given case, the zones of 9600-9575 will remain critical zone to watch for. Any dip below this will bring delay the pullback in the Markets and cause such corrective activities to continue.

On Friday, while the levels of 9600 and 9645 remains immediate resistance levels for the Markets, the supports will come in at 9550 and 9475 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 55.0265 and it has marked a fresh 14-period low which is bearish. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line.

If we have a look at pattern analysis, the NIFTY has now breached the upward rising trend line which was drawn from 9200-level and now trades a notch below this support.

A minor addition of over 1.62 lakh shares or 0.76% was seen in the NIFTY JUNE Futures. This implies that minor shorts have started to build up in the system.

Overall,  we once again reiterate cautious view on the Markets. It may happen that the Markets see a temporary pullback but unless it trades well above the 9600-mark, it will continue to remain vulnerable to minor selling pressures. We recommend keeping away from creating any major positions. Cash should be preserved while maintaining modest exposures in the Market.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

Thursday, June 15, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, JUNE 15, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, JUNE 15, 2017
The Markets saw a sharp recovery from the low point of the day and recovered all of its intraday losses on Wednesday to end the day with minor gain of 11.25 points or 0.12%. We expect a quiet start to the Markets tomorrow. Further to this we do not expect any run-away up move in the Markets as the recovery that we saw on Wednesday has been evidently due to short covering from lower levels. Since the NIFTY took support at its short term 20-DMA, this level will continue to play out as support in the near term and the zones of 9570-9600 will remain critical to watch out for.

The levels of 9640 and 9675 will act as resistance in the coming session. Supports come in at 9570 and 9510 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 60.4025 and remains neutral showing no divergences against the price. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish. On the Candles, a candle with a long lower shadow has emerged with a spinning top. The long lower shadow remains significant as it has occurred near a support. It is likely to potentially halt the decline. However, this need confirmation in the following session.

Going by pattern analysis, the NIFTY has so far managed to cling on to its short term pattern support of 20-DMA. So long as it manages to hang on above this, we will see ranged consolidation continuing.

All and all, there is evident tentativeness in the Markets. In the immediate short term, we see higher chances of minor corrective activities to continue. The levels of 9570-9600 will be important because any dip below this will bring in some more weakness in the immediate short term. We will see sectors being rotated and stock specific out-performance will be seen.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 

Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member

Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA




+91-98250-16331 

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, JUNE 14, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, JUNE 14, 2017
Though the Indian Equity Markets on Tuesday ended with very a nominal loss of 9.50 points or 0.10%, the benchmark NIFTY50 declined just short of 60-odd points from the high point of the day. This is enough sign in the Markets that participants have turned cautious and for Wednesday, the level of 9600 is crucial to watch for. It would be important for the Markets to keep its head above 9600 and any dip below this will increase the chances of the Markets testing its short term 20-DMA around 9565-9550 levels.

For Wednesday, while resistance stands at 9645 and 9670, supports come in at 9565 and 9520 levels.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart 59.3684 and it has marked a fresh 14-period low which is bearish. RSI has also gone on to market a fresh 14-period low while NIFTY has not done so. This has resulted into Bearish Divergence. The Daily MACD remains bearish while it trades below its signal line.

The pattern analysis suggests that NIFTY continues to remain above the rising trend line drawn from 9200 level. However, given the rising nature of the trend line, it will not be long that even if the NIFTY consolidates, it falls below this trend line.

Overall, there are enough signals that corrective activities may continue and in the given circumstances, the levels of 9600 will be critical to watch out for. However, there would be no structural breach on the Charts even if the Markets slip below 9600 mark to test its short term 20-DMA. We reiterate very cautious view on the Markets and recommend keeping overall exposure on very moderate levels.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, JUNE 13, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, JUNE 13, 2017
The Indian Equity Markets witnessed a long overdue but healthy corrective activity on Monday as the benchmark NIFTY50 posted a modest decline while ending the day with net loss of 51.85 points or 0.54%. Again, while not expecting any significant downside, we expect a quiet start to the Markets and in all likelihood; we expect such corrective activity to continue. The levels of 9600-9550 zone will be important to watch for in the immediate short term. The breach of 9550 zone will bring in some more weakness in the Markets.

For Tuesday, the levels of 9600 and 9550 will act as important support levels. On the upper side, the zones of 9650-9675 will act as immediate resistance.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 60.6096 and it remains neutral showing no divergences against the price. The Daily MACD has reported a negative crossover and it now trades below its signal line which is bearish.

The NIFTY also shed over 1.90 lakh or 0.87% in Open Interest. This indicates that the decline that we saw on Monday has been on account of long unwinding in the Markets.

The pattern analysis still shows the Markets hanging on above the rising trend line that is drawn from 9200 levels. Given its rising nature, the NIFTY has immediate support at 9600 and then at 9550 in form of its 20-DMA.

All and all, Markets are not yet fully out of the woods and there are high chances that the corrective activities will continue. Stock specific out-performance will be very evidently seen. However, the zones of 9600-9550 will remain extremely important to watch out for. We reiterate maintaining cautious out-look on the Markets while keeping exposures at modest levels.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

Monday, June 12, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY, JUNE 12, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY, JUNE 12, 2017
Last week, the Markets headed nowhere and on similar lines, we see the week beginning on a flat note. In Friday’s trade, the benchmark NIFTY50 saw itself ending with modest gains of 21 points or 0.22% but we see all likelihood of a tepid start on Monday. Even if we see modest gains, the overall upsides are very much likely to remain capped at 9710 levels. No significant upsides can be expected until the Markets moves past these levels. Range bound oscillations are set to persist and continue.

The levels of 9680 and 9710 will act as resistance levels. The supports come in at 9580 and 9550 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 67.7924 and it remains neutral showing no divergences against the price. The Daily MACD is bullish as it continues to trade above its signal line but its trajectory is flattened. No significant formations are observed on Candles.

The NIFTY saw shedding of over 1.88 lakh shares or 0.85% in Open Interest. Given the spurt that we saw in last hour of the trade, we can fairly attribute this to the short covering. Key would be to see if this gets replaced with fresh buying.

The pattern analysis suggests NIFTY comfortably trading above the rising trend line drawn from 9200 levels. Any mild correction can see the NIFTY testing 9600 levels.

All and all, though there may be some intermittent upsides that we may see, the Markets overall remains very much overbought on Weekly Charts. Given this fact, any upsides, until the levels of 9710 are breached, will see chances of profit taking bouts from higher levels. We continue to reiterate caution and advise moderate exposure while protecting profits at higher levels.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331