Thursday, May 25, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2017
In our yesterday’s note, we had mentioned about the importance of levels of 9380-9400 in the immediate short term. On Thursday, the benchmark NIFTY50 managed to stay afloat above these zone for the major part of the session but the last hour and half of trade saw the NIFTY slipping and ending the day notch below this levels. The NIFTY lost 25.60 points or 0.27%. We enter the expiry of the current derivative series. The zone of 9380-9400 still remains critical to watch out for. Though the session will remain dominated with rollover centric activity, it would be critically important for the Markets to crawl back above 9380-9400 in order to avoid further weakness from creeping in.

The levels of 9400 and 9465 are immediate resistance levels today. The supports come in lower at 9330 and 9280.

The Relative Strength Index – Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 53.4156. Bearish divergence has once again emerged as the RSI has set a fresh 14-period low while NIFTY has not yet. The Daily MACD is bearish as it continues to trade below its signal line.

The pattern analysis in the Close charts show the Markets taking a downward breach from expected lines from the sharp wedge it had created.  NIFTY has retraced after it tested the rising trend line drawn from 9200 levels. In the process, it has marked 9532 as its immediate top for the immediate short term.

The expiry day is very much likely to instill volatility in the session. The NIFTY remains oversold on the Stochastic and it has seen OI increasing over previous two days of decline. This indicates creation of shorts which may lend some stability in the close vicinity of these levels. We reiterate to avoid shorts and preserve cash. Dips should be utilized to make select purchases. Some stability, even if temporary, can be expected in close vicinity of current levels.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, MAY 24, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, MAY 24, 2017
Corrective actions continued to dominate the trade on Tuesday as the NIFTY50 ended the day with net loss of 52.10 points or 0.55%. While going into Wednesday, we expect such corrective activity to continue. The zones of 9380-9400 are important pattern support and the behavior of the Markets vis-à-vis  these levels will be important to watch for. The Markets may see a modestly positive start but the maintenance of the levels of 9380-9400 will be important and any breach below these levels is likely to keep NIFTY under corrective mode for some more time.

The levels of 9425 and 9450 will continue to pose resistance going ahead. Supports come in at 9375 and 9310 zones.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 55.1630 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-periods which is bearish. Also, the RSI has set a fresh 14-period low while NIFTY has not. This has resulted into Bearish Divergence. The Daily MACD is bearish trading below its signal line.  No significant formations were observed on Candles.

The pattern analysis suggests that the Markets have broken on the downside from a sharp wedge that it has created. On the Charts, it has continued to resist to the rising trend line and retracing from there once those levels were tested.

Overall, the corrective mood is likely to persist for some more time. To add to that, we enter the penultimate day of expiry of the current derivative series and this is all likely to induce volatility into the session. We reiterate our view to adopt stock specific approach and continue to keep overall exposures limited. Cash should be preserved while avoiding shorts in the Market.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, May 23, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, MAY 23, 2017
Classical consolidation was what was seen in the Indian Markets on Monday as the Markets headed nowhere and ended the day with minor gains of 10.35 points or 0.11% after paring nearly all of its initial gains. On Tuesday, we expect a quiet start to the Markets. We do not expect Markets to make any meaningful headway in coming days. Consolidation is expected to continue. No structural weakness is expected and the zones of 9380-9400 will act as important pattern support for the short term.

The levels of 9475 and 9510 will continue to act as resistance zone for the Markets. Supports come in at 9380 and 9350 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 61.2181 and shows no divergence on either side against the price. The Daily MACD has reported a negative crossover and it is now bearish while trading below its signal line. No significant formations were observed on Candles.

The pattern analysis shows the Markets remaining in a sharp wedge formation on the Close Charts. The Markets as of now continues to tread below and resist to the rising trend line drawn from 9215 levels.

The rising nature of the trend line will continue to take resistance levels higher with each passing day. This makes achievement of a clear breakout very difficult. Not only this temporarily halts the up move but is likely to put the Markets under consolidation for a longer period. We continue to recommend remaining highly stock specific and keep over exposures to modest levels.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 

Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member

Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA




+91-98250-16331 

Monday, May 22, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY, MAY 22, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY, MAY 22, 2017
The Markets on Friday saw fierce consolidation as the benchmark NIFTY50 not only came off nearly 110-odd points from the high of the day but also recovered 40-odd points from the lows to end the day flat with minor loss of 1.55 points or 0.02%. On Monday, we expect a modestly positive start, but in all senses, the currently consolidation phase is likely to extend itself with the levels of 9380-9400 acting as immediate pattern supports.

The levels of 9460 and 9505 will act as immediate resistance while supports will come in at 9380 and 9350 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 60.4166 and it remains neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Daily MACD is bullish as it still trades above its signal line. However, it may report a negative crossover in coming days.

Going by pattern analysis, there is formation of a sharp wedge on the Close charts. This may temporarily cause some short term disruption to the current up move and keep markets in range bound consolidation with minor corrective declines.

All and all, as mentioned the current consolidation phase is likely to continue. Even if we see a positive opening, the Markets will still remain vulnerable to minor corrective declines from higher levels. The zones of 9380-9400 are expected to act as major pattern supports. Any breach of these levels will keep the Markets under corrective activity for some more time. We reiterate maintaining stock specific cautious approach to the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

Sunday, May 21, 2017

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MAY 22 THRU MAY 26, 2017

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MAY 22 THRU MAY 26, 2017
The Indian Equities consolidated on Friday with nominal gains of 1.55 points. In our previous Weekly note, we had mentioned that we do not expect any significant weekly gains given the overbought nature of the Markets. In line with this, the benchmark NIFTY50 ended the week with minor gains of 27 points of 0.29% on weekly basis. In the coming week, we do not expect any runaway rise in the Markets. The overbought indicators and the expiry week will dominate the directional bias that the Markets will take. We expect minor corrective actions with limited downsides and consolidation to continue through the coming week.

The levels of 9490 and 9550 are expected to pose stiff resistance. The supports are expected to come in at 9350 and 9280 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Weekly Chart is 72.3968. It is bullish as it has made a fresh 14-period high but it trades in overbought territory. The Weekly MACD is bullish but it appears to be losing momentum to some extent. On the Candles, a long upper shadow occurred. This has bearish implications and it is significant as such formation has occurred near high levels. It has potential to continue to temporarily halt the up move.

The pattern analysis depicts a buoyant but a tired picture. The Markets broke out on the upside from the triple top formation and has been inching upwards since then. However, at present, the lead indicators are oversold and some signs of minor fatigue are evident.

All and all, though the Markets have kept its primary trend intact on the upside, there are chances that we see minor corrective actions and consolidation continuing through the coming week. The rollovers will dominate the coming week while some outperforming sectors will take some breather, we can expect good performance in select stocks from AUTO, Banks and Pharma.

A study of Relative Rotation Graphs – RRG show that in the coming week, AUTO and PSUBANKS will continue to improve their relative outperformance with NIFTY. ENERGY and SERVICE stocks will further slowdown in their momentum. CNXIT and PHARMA may relatively under performing in coming week. METALS will look to consolidate its performance and we will also see select out-performance from the NIFTY NEXT50 pack.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show you the relative strength and momentum for a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance as against NIFTY Index and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA

+91-98250-16331 



MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2017
In our previous note, we had categorically mentioned that some corrective activity is long overdue in the Markets. The benchmark NIFTY50 ended the day on Thursday with a net loss of 96.30 points or 1.01%. We may cite fresh political uncertainty in the US and the resultant weak global set-up for Thursday’s decline but the correction that we witnesses remains pure technical in nature. The Markets have marked a immediate top and we expect this corrective activity to continue for some more time while keeping the primary uptrend intact.

The levels of 9450 and 9485 will act as immediate resistance levels. Supports come in at 9375 and 9340 zones.

The Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 60.5907 and it remains neutral. The Daily MACD still remains bullish while trading above its signal line. No significant formation occurred on Candles.

The pattern analysis show the Markets correct after it continuously resisted to a rising trend line. We had mentioned that given the rising nature of the trend line, a clear breakout would be very difficult for the Markets.

We expect the Markets to display corrective tendencies for some more time. It is expected that it forms a fresh area pattern and it is not expected to give any runaway rise. Investors now need to shift their focus on the good quality stocks that had remained laggards in the immediate phase of rally. Effective churning of sectors and investing in stocks that had not participated current phase of rally will hold the key in coming days. Even if the Markets see some more corrective downsides, the primary uptrend remains undoubtedly intact.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, MAY 18, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, MAY 18, 2017
The Indian Equity Markets continued to end yet another day with gains but the gains remained very modest to the extent of 13.50 points or 0.14%. The benchmark has continued to trade the upper Bollinger Band and has once again shown enough signs that some amount of minor corrective action remains inevitable even if it remains in extremely limited proportion. On Thursday, we expect a flat to modestly negative opening and the Markets may see some minor corrective action along with some sector-specific outperformance.

The levels of 9530 and 9565 will remain likely resistance levels. Supports appear much lower at 9460 and 9410 zones.

The Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 72.6752 and it remains clearly in overbought territory. The Daily MACD remains bullish while trading above its signal line. 

On the Candles, a Long Lower Shadow occurred. Tough this is not a classical hammer as it contains a small upper body, it has potential to temporarily halt the up move. Also, a spinning top formation on the Candle along with this may cause further temporary halt in the up move.

The pattern analysis very clearly suggests the Markets trading the upper trend line drawn from 9180-9220 zones. As we had mentioned in one of our previous notes, the rising nature of the trend line raises the daily resistance levels for the Markets every day and prohibits the 
Markets from giving a clear breakout.

All and all, there are signs enough that Markets are overdue to take a breather. Again, the downsides may remain limited but some minor corrective activity in overdue and imminent. We recommend keeping exposure to very moderate levels and lay emphasis on vigilant protection of profits at higher levels.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, MAY 17, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, MAY 17, 2017
The Indian Equities continued to enjoy the liquidity driven gush as the benchmark NIFTY50 continued to scale fresh highs and ended the day on a fresh life-time high as well. We cannot ignore the liquidity fuelled upsurge that the domestic markets are currently witnessing but at the same time, also it would not be wise to continue to blindly chase the stocks with badly overstretched indicators. We expect a positive opening to the Markets on Wednesday and upward tendencies might persist. At this juncture, it would be extremely important to protect existing profits at higher levels and effectively churn sectors to rightly participate in the uptrend.

The levels of 9525 and 9560 will now act as likely resistance levels. The supports come in at 9460 and 9410 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 71.9469. Though it is bullish as it has marked a fresh 14-period high, it now remains in overbought territory. The Daily MACD is bullish while staying above its signal line. A rising window occurred on Candles. This is essentially a gap and it usually has bullish implications.

The pattern analysis suggests that the NIFTY has managed to move beyond the rising trend line resistance that it was witnessing over past couple of days. Though this implies a breakout, caution needs to be exercised as the Markets are now overbought. The zones of 9350-9375 which the immediate resistance zone is now expected to act as support.

All and all, given the underlying buoyancy intact, there are all chances that the Markets may take a breather either on Wednesday or in immediate future. The downsides in such an event are likely to remain extremely limited. We reiterate protecting profits at higher levels and effective shift sectors to avoid minor corrective activities. The sectors who had been laggards in the past like IT, AUTO, etc are expected to now participate.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2017
In a better-than-expected session on Monday, the Indian Equities spent the entire session moving sideward in a narrow 20-odd points range and ended the day with modest gains of 44.50 points or 0.47%. The benchmark NIFTY50 closed at yet another high today. On Tuesday, we do expect a modestly positive to flat start to the Markets. At this juncture, we need to take note of two important points. First, the Markets are yet to clear the 9450-9470 zones which are critical pattern resistance; and second, a sharp rising Wedge is created as evident from the Close Charts and this keeps Markets vulnerable to profit taking bouts at higher levels.

The levels of 9350 and 9375 will act as major pattern resistance levels for the markets.  Supports come in at 9410 and 9365 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 68.0285. A Bearish Divergence has emerged as the NIFTY has marked a fresh 14-period high while RSI has not.  MACD is bullish while trading above its signal line. A small while body has occurred on Candles but in the present structure and pattern, it holds no significance.

The Pattern Analysis shows the Markets tracking the upper trend line drawn as likely resistance. As mentioned in our yesterday’s note, given the rising nature of the trend line, the potential resistance levels shifts higher every day preventing a clear breakout in the Markets.

All and all, a sharp rising wedge is formed on the Closing Charts. We reiterate high caution at current levels and though the primary trend remains intact, Markets continue to remain vulnerable to profit taking bouts at higher levels. While keeping exposures at modest levels, cautious outlook is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY, MAY 15, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY, MAY 15, 2017
In our Friday’s note, we had mentioned about possibilities of the Markets continuing to show corrective tendencies as it exhibited enough signs of fatigue. In line with this, the NIFTY on Friday ended the day with losses of 21.50 points or 0.23% though it came off from its intraday lows before closing. We expect Monday to be no different. NIFTY50 is expected to continue to remain in a range, continue to consolidate while remaining vulnerable to profit taking bouts from higher levels although the overall downsides will remain very much limited.

The levels of 9450 and 9470 will act as immediate trend line resistance for the Markets. Supports come in at 9365 and 9310 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 65.0072 and it remains neutral showing no divergences of any kind against the price. The Daily MACD is flattened but it presently trades above its signal line. On Candles, a black candle resembling a “hanging man” occurred. However, this is not a classical formation as the length of the lower shadow is not of adequate size and it is smaller than what it is required for a classical formation.

The pattern analysis shows the Markets continuing to resist to the upper trend line drawn from 9200 level. The nature of the trend line is rising so with each passing day, the resistance it offers to the NIFTY on the upside also rises. So, it becomes much difficult for the Markets to achieve a clear breakout in such scenario.

All and all, enough signs of fatigue continue to persist on the Charts. There are little triggers that would cause any runaway rise to the Markets. We expect some consolidation to continue for some more time and NIFTY is expected to continue to trade in a defined range with relatively limited downsides.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, MAY 12, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, MAY 12, 2017
In our previous note, we stated that though the NIFTY has attempted to achieve a breakout, we remained apprehensive about the Markets continuing with the up move. The Indian Markets looked evidently tired and some profit taking took place at higher levels as the benchmark NIFTY50 came off from its intraday highs end the day with modest gains of 15.10 points or 0.16%. On Friday as well, though we do not see any downright correction, we certainly expect the Markets to show signs of some tiredness while it attempts to scale higher levels. Some intermittent bouts of profit taking just cannot be ruled out.

The levels of 9440 and 9465 will act as immediate resistance levels while supports come in at 9380 and 9350 zones.

The Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 67.8852. It shows clear Bearish Divergence as the NIFTY50 marked its fresh 14-day high but RSI did not. The MACD stays bullish while trading above its signal line. No significant formations were seen on Candles.

The pattern analysis clearly show that post achieving breakout from the sideways consolidation zone, the NIFTY is clearly resisting the upper rising trend line drawn highs of 9150-9200 zones and is tracking the upper Bollinger Band.

All and all, as mentioned often in our previous notes, the inherent trend remains intact but the Markets are also evidently showing signs of tiredness and some fatigue at higher levels. This leaves us exposed to mild profit taking bouts from higher levels. Sectoral out-performance will continue and we reiterate maintaining moderate positions and making select purchases while vigilantly protecting profits at higher levels.      

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, MAY 11, 2017

MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, MAY 11, 2017
The Markets had a buoyant-than-expected session on Wednesday as it ended the day with decent gain of 90.45 points or 0.97%. In this process, the benchmark NIFTY50 not only marked its fresh lifetime highs at Close levels but also attempted to breakout from the sideways consolidation zone that it had created over past couple of days. The breakout is attempted and not yet confirmed. However, we expect confirmation coming on Thursday. A modestly positive opening is expected but the behavior of the NIFTY in the zones of 9425-9440 will be important as it will track the upper Bollinger band. But overall, momentum is very much expected to continue.

The levels of 9425 and 9450 will be immediate resistance levels that we should watch for. The supports come in at 965 and 9320 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 66.9304. A Bearish Divergence is observed as NIFTY has marked a fresh 14-period high but RSI has not yet. The Daily MACD has turned bullish once again and it now trades above its signal line.

The pattern analysis clearly shows that after marking the previous highs of 9367, the NIFTY had formed a sideways trajectory and had been consolidating by oscillating in a capped range. In Wednesday’s session, the NIFTY has attempted to mark a fresh breakout. 
However, this breakout remains unconfirmed. A confirmation would be required and the behavior of the Markets vis-à-vis the levels of 9425-9440 will be critical to watch out for.

All and all, on Charts, it is clearly visible that though a strong breakout is attempted, it still remains an unconfirmed breakout and we will need to significantly move past the 9450-9475 mark until a clear breakout is achieved and the NIFTY moves past the rising trend line that it is currently resisting.  However, odds remain much in favor of the up move continuing. Cautious optimism is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, MAY 10, 2017

MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, MAY 10, 2017
In our previous note, we had categorically mentioned about the possibility of the Markets remaining in a defined range as the Markets will were expected to consolidate. In line with this analysis, the Markets headed nowhere on Wednesday as the benchmark NIFTY 50 oscillated in a 30-odd points band and ended the day with negligible gains of 2.80 points or 0.03%. While we expect a flat opening on Wednesday, steadfast consolidation is expected to continue. While showing no signs of any reversal of trend, the Markets are fiercely consolidating in a given defined range.

The levels of 9350 and 9375 will continue to act as major resistance levels for the Markets. The supports come in lower at 9260 and 9225 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 60.3780 and it remains neutral showing no divergences. The Daily MACD has reported a negative crossover and it is now bearish as it trades below its signal line. No significant formations were observed on Candles.

The pattern analysis very clearly shows the zones of 9350-9375 being established as major pattern resistance and immediate top. Though there are virtually no signs of any reversal of trend, fresh up moves shall occur only after the NIFTY moves past these defined resistance levels.

All and all, as we have mentioned often in our previous note, we reiterate once again that given the direction-less nature of the Markets, it is best advised to continue to adopt stock specific approach. The NIFTY is likely to continue to consolidate and resist to the 9350-9375 zones, but there will be select pockets which will continue to out-perform. While strictly avoiding shorts, stock specific approach while keeping overall exposures modest is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331