Friday, January 20, 2017

MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 20, 2017

MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 20, 2017
The Equity Markets on Thursday continued to remain range bound as expected on the projected lines. The benchmark NIFTY50 ended the day with minor gains of 18.10 points or 0.22%. We expect the Markets on Friday to once again open on a quiet note and once again continue to see range bound consolidation. It is extremely important to note that though the domestic markets are exhibiting positive bias, the spiking bond yields in the US is likely to put a check on the NIFTY’s up move. Moreover, it is yet to move past the 100-DMA and 8440-8460 zones and this is likely to put the Markets some more time into consolidation.

For today, 8460 and 8495 will continue to act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets.  The supports will come in at 8390 and 8335 levels.

The Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 67.3950 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD stays bullish while trading above its signal line. On the Candles, no significant formation has been observed.

On the derivatives front, the NIFTY January series have shed over 3.62 lakh shares or 1.76% in Open Interest. This signifies some minor profit booking at higher levels. However, the figures do not reflect or point towards any major sentiment change in the Markets.

While having a look at pattern analysis, it remains evident that the Markets have been consolidating after moving past its 200-DMA levels. This further establishes 200-DMA as the interim immediate support for the Markets in event of any ranged consolidation. On the other hand, the NIFTY has been resisting to its 8435-8460 zones which also includes the 100-DMA level as well. On the Weekly note, the set up remain buoyant but the Daily Charts exhibit some possibilities of the NIFTY oscillating in a defined range. The Bollinger Bands on the Daily Charts are 45.16% wider than normal. This suggests higher-than-normal volatility in NIFTY. Therefore, the probability of the volatility decreasing and the NIFTY remaining in a trading range has increased.

Overall, the Charts present a mixed picture. Though the current set-up certainly looks buoyant, external technical factors like the spiking bond yields in the US and other technical indicators may put the Markets into some more time into range bound movement. Fresh up move shall only occur with Close above 8460 levels. Shorts should be avoided given that fact that the NIFTY continues to trade above its critical supp ort levels and the undercurrent remains intact. Major directional bias may be taken after Close above 8460 levels and until then stock specific strategy should be adopted in the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 

Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

Daily Market Trend Guide -- THURSDAY, JANUARY 19, 2017

MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 20, 2017
The Equity Markets on Thursday continued to remain range bound as expected on the projected lines. The benchmark NIFTY50 ended the day with minor gains of 18.10 points or 0.22%. We expect the Markets on Friday to once again open on a quiet note and once again continue to see range bound consolidation. It is extremely important to note that though the domestic markets are exhibiting positive bias, the spiking bond yields in the US is likely to put a check on the NIFTY’s up move. Moreover, it is yet to move past the 100-DMA and 8440-8460 zones and this is likely to put the Markets some more time into consolidation.

For today, 8460 and 8495 will continue to act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets.  The supports will come in at 8390 and 8335 levels.

The Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 67.3950 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD stays bullish while trading above its signal line. On the Candles, no significant formation has been observed.

On the derivatives front, the NIFTY January series have shed over 3.62 lakh shares or 1.76% in Open Interest. This signifies some minor profit booking at higher levels. However, the figures do not reflect or point towards any major sentiment change in the Markets.

While having a look at pattern analysis, it remains evident that the Markets have been consolidating after moving past its 200-DMA levels. This further establishes 200-DMA as the interim immediate support for the Markets in event of any ranged consolidation. On the other hand, the NIFTY has been resisting to its 8435-8460 zones which also includes the 100-DMA level as well. On the Weekly note, the set up remain buoyant but the Daily Charts exhibit some possibilities of the NIFTY oscillating in a defined range. The Bollinger Bands on the Daily Charts are 45.16% wider than normal. This suggests higher-than-normal volatility in NIFTY. Therefore, the probability of the volatility decreasing and the NIFTY remaining in a trading range has increased.

Overall, the Charts present a mixed picture. Though the current set-up certainly looks buoyant, external technical factors like the spiking bond yields in the US and other technical indicators may put the Markets into some more time into range bound movement. Fresh up move shall only occur with Close above 8460 levels. Shorts should be avoided given that fact that the NIFTY continues to trade above its critical supp ort levels and the undercurrent remains intact. Major directional bias may be taken after Close above 8460 levels and until then stock specific strategy should be adopted in the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

Thursday, January 19, 2017

MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 18, 2017

MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 18, 2017
The Equity Markets headed nowhere on Tuesday as the opening levels saw resistance coming in exactly at 100-DMA as the benchmark NIFTY50 came off during the day to end the day with a minor loss of 14.80 points or 0.18%. All indicators clearly point towards consolidation continuing in the Markets and the 100-DMA level which stands at 8436 will continue to remain and act as immediate resistance for the Markets in the immediate short term. There are clear signs of some fatigue creeping in to the Markets and this may prevent the NIFTY50 from giving any runaway rise. It may continue to oscillate in a given range.

For today, 8440 and 8495 will act as immediate resistance levels while the supports to NIFTY will come in at 8365 and 8320 levels.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 64.9643 and it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. It continues to remain neutral. The Daily MACD is bullish while it trades above its signal line. No significant formations are observed on Candles.

NIFTY January series point towards some minor profit taking happening at higher levels. It shed over 4.53 lakh shares or 2.25% in Open Interest.

While having a look at pattern analysis, it is very much evident now that the after a decent recovery of 500-odd points from the Double Bottom support formation at 7900-7920 zones, the equities are showing clear signs of range bound consolidation once again. However, it also becomes important to note that the Markets continue to trade above all of its critical support levels and is currently consolidating in a given range which is in fact healthy for the Markets. The Bollinger Bands are 43.80 wider than normal on the Daily Charts. This denotes increased volatility in NIFTY than its normal range. The probability of volatility decreasing and prices remaining in a trading range increases with such formation.

All and all, ranged consolidation is likely to continue and the levels of 100-DMA will continue to remain key levels to watch for. Sector rotation has begun to show once again and we will see some sectoral out-performance in coming days. There is not structural breach on the Daily Charts so long as the NIFTY trades above 200-DMA which will remain its crucial support in such times of consolidation.  While a healthy consolidation happens, select stock specific purchases may be continued.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, January 17, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, JANUARY 17, 2017
The Indian Equities spent a range bound session and continued to consolidate at Close levels as the benchmark NIFTY50 ended the Monday’s session with minor gains of 12.45 points or 0.15%. A modestly positive start is expected today and we will see the NIFTY inching once again towards its 100-DMA levels. The 100-DMA level which stands at 8439 today will remain important level to watch out  for at Close levels. The zones of 8440-8460 will continue to pose area resistance to the Markets.

For today, the levels of 8460 and 8495 will act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports will come in at 8360 and 8325 levels.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 66.7407 and it does not show any failure swing. However, the NIFTY50 has formed a fresh 14-period high while RSI has not and this has resulted into Bearish Divergence. The Daily MACD stays bullish and continues to trade above its signal line. No significant formation is observed on Candles.

The NIFTY January futures have added over 2.22 lakh shares or 1.12% in Open Interest. This indicates positive bias and shows that the undercurrent remains buoyant.

The pattern analysis show very clear picture and shows the zones of 7900-7920 being confirmed as the immediate bottom for the Markets. Further it also makes evident that the NIFTY consolidated around 200-DMA and then moved up again. So, this area – 200-DMA – which earlier acted as the resistance will now act as support in event of any range bound consolidation. On the upper side, the 100-DMA remains a critical resistance to watch out for at Close. As projected on couple of occasions, the NIFTY will not show any runaway rise until it moves past 100-DMA and closes well above it.

The overall structure of the Charts throws distinct possibilities of consolidation happening for some more time. On one hand, the NIFTY has added OI while coming off from its lows which is a sign of underlying positive bias; and on the other hand, the lead indicators are showing mild signs of fatigue. We reiterate that the stock specific approach will hold the key in coming days and all the intermittent dips should be continued to be utilized to make quality purchases.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, January 16, 2017

MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, JANUARY 16, 2017
We had expected NIFTY50 to test its 100-DMA and also resist around those levels in the Friday’s session. While trading very much on analyzed lines, the NIFTY did test its 100-DMA level and then came off from its opening highs to end the day with a minor loss of 6.85 points or 0.08%. The Monday’s session is likely to see a quiet opening and we very much expect the Markets to continue to consolidate at Close levels. The 8440-8460 zones will now become critical to watch out for and they are likely to pose resistance in the immediate short term. The consolidation is expected to remain range bound with limited downsides.

For today, the levels of 8460 and 8495 will act as immediate resistance levels while supports are expected to come in at 8355 and 8320 levels.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 66.0148 and it does not show any bullish or any bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD is bullish while trading above its signal line. No significant formation is observed on Candles.

On the derivatives front, the NIFTY January futures have shed over 7.29 lakh shares or 3.53% in Open Interest. This shedding of OI with the NIFTY coming off its highs indicates that there are high chances that some amount of profit taking has crept in and this may force the NIFTY to consolidate for some time.

Pattern analysis also indicates some amount of likely consolidation on the Daily Charts. After breaking out from the 200-DMA levels, NIFY has gained some 100-odd points and has recovered some 500-odd points from the recent lows formed near 7900-7920 zones. This pullback has of course occurred with intermittent consolidation, but some amount of minor profit taking at higher levels cannot be ruled out. For the NIFTY50 to resume its upward move, it will have to move past and Close above 100-DMA which stands at 8441 today. Until this happens we will see some amount of range bound consolidation happening in the immediate short term.

In the same breath, it is important to note that the Weekly Charts remain relatively more buoyant. So, if we translate its effect on the Daily Charts, it is likely that though consolidation might happen and the area of 8440-8462 might act as immediate resistance levels, the downsides will remain limited on Close basis. Some volatility is likely to remain ingrained in the Markets and we may see NIFTY50 oscillating in a defined trading range. Any intermittent bouts and profit taking should be utilized to pick quality stocks. Individual stock specific approach is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA


+91-98250-16331