Sunday, April 23, 2017

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 24 THRU APRIL 28, 2017

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 24 THRU APRIL 28, 2017
Our previous Weekly note mentioned the benchmark NIFTY50 to head nowhere and remain in a broad range. In line with the analysis, the NIFTY50 ended the week flat with modest loss of 31.40 points or 0.34% on weekly basis. We had also expected REALTY sector  to handsomely out perform. The CNX REALTY Index ended the week with 10% weekly gains. In the coming week, we continue to expect the NIFTY50 to consolidate in a broad range and also expect the 8970-9000 zone to act as a very crucial and strong support.

The levels of 9185 and 9270 will act as resistance over coming week. The supports are expected in the zones of 9065 and 8970 levels.

The Relative Strength Index on the Weekly Chart is 65.4629 and it remains neutral showing no divergences on either side. The Weekly MACD stays bullish while trading above its signal line. Small candle with a spinning top – a small real body—dipicts indecisiveness on part of participants.

The pattern analysis show deliberation on part of NIFTY post its breakout from 8970-9000 zones. Post breaking out from those levels, the overbought nature of the Markets at that time did now allow for a runaway rise. Since then, the NIFTY has been consolidating on lower-than-average volumes. However, the breakout above the zones of 8970-9000 mark remain absolutely intact and these levels will act as a very strong support in case of the throwback happening.

Overall, we will continue to see the Markets showing tentative mood over coming days. We might see lack of explicit triggers and lack of conviction due to some portion of global uncertainties, but we reiterate that the primary trend remains intact. We advice investors to continue to utilize this classic consolidation period to rotate sectors effectively and pick quality stocks.

A study of Relative Rotation Graphs – RRG show relative outperformance from REALTY and select ENERGY stocks is likely to continue. In any upward swings in NIFTY, we will see participation coming from MIDCAP universe. SMALL CAP universe will also host pockets of outperformance. We will see PHARMA attempting to consolidate its relative outperformance. No significant outperformance will be expected from AUTO and PSUBANKS. METALS will continue to lag while BANKNIFTY and NIFTYJR will see some slowing down in momentum. Select Financial Services stocks are expected to relatively outperform.

 Important Note: RRG™ charts show you the relative strength and momentum for a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance as against NIFTY Index and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA

+91-98250-16331 



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