Saturday, October 29, 2016

Seasons' Greetings

Wishing you a Happy Diwali


Blissful and Healthy New Year.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT
Technical Analyst

Research Analyst ((SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

+91-98250-16331 / +91- 70164-32277

Friday, October 28, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, October 28, 2016

MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2016
The Markets saw a remarkable recovery from lower levels and ended flat but it traded very much on expected lines and went on to test its 100-DMA levels. The 100-DMA levels were the levels from where the NIFTY saw sharp recovery coming in. Today, we can expect the lower opening in the Markets but resilience round 100-DMA would be very much evident and there are good amount of chances that we see up moves post lower opening and good amount of support around the 100-DMA level which is 8552.

Today, the levels of 8660 and 8695 will act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports come in at 8550 and 8515 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 44.4632 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD stays bearish as it trades below its signal line after reporting a negative crossover. On the Candles, a long lower shadow occurred. It is a hammer-like formation but with a small real body above. If this occurs after a decline, it can mark a potential reversal. However, a confirmation is required on the other day.

Coming to pattern analysis, the NIFTY has still continued to remain in the falling channel drawn from 8968 levels. However, it has attempted to take support at the 100-DMA levels which is 8552 today. In event of declines, this level will continue to act as major support at 
Close levels. Any  breach below this will cause NIFTY to get weaker. On the upper side, the levels of 8690-8720 continue to act as sacrosanct resistance levels for the Markets.

All and all, the Markets still do not seem out of the woods completely and so long as they remain in this falling channel, it will continue to trade in a broad trading range while also continuing to remain vulnerable to selling pressures from above. However, today, we might see some improvement after expected negative opening but we advise to keep exposures limited to select quality stocks and maintain liquidity while adopting a cautious view on the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com


+91-98250-16331 

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, October 27, 2016

MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2016
The Markets had a thoroughly disappointing session yesterday as it opened weak, got weaker and ended the day with net loss of 76.05 points. Today, speaking purely on technical grounds, we expect the weakness to persist. Further, today being the expiry day of the current derivative series, we will continue to see the session remaining dominated with rollovers. The 100-DMA of the NIFTY which is 8548 is likely to be tested and will now be the critical level to watch out for while the 8690-8700 level has been firmly established as the immediate term resistance for the Markets.

For today, the levels of 8650 and 8690 will act as resistance levels while the supports are expected to come in at 8590 and 8550 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 44.4632 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The MACD has reported a bearish crossover and it now trades below its signal line and is therefore bearish. On the Candles, a falling window has occurred. This signifies a gap and it can have short term bearish implications for NIFTY.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY October futures have shed over 16.54 lakh shares or 11.79% in Open Interest. The November futures have added over 34.77 lakh shares or 39.43% in OI resulting into net increase in OI.

While having a look at pattern analysis, the falling channel is now firmly in place with the levels of 8698 acting as the immediate top for the Markets. The falling trend line at 8700 and the 50-DMA of 8710 has now established themselves as important and major pattern resistance for the NIFTY. Having said this, it would not be a surprise if we see the NIFTY testing the 100-DMA levels and therefore the levels of 8548 will act as important support at Close.

All and all, the level of 8548-50 remains critical levels to watch out for and it would be critically important for the Markets to seek support around these levels. Any breach below this will bring in more weakness. Volatility is certainly to exist as today is a expiry day of the current derivative series. We reiterate our cautious view on the Markets. Though selective buying at lower levels is advised, more emphasis should be laid on preservation of cash while maintaining a cautious view on the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com


+91-98250-16331 

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, October 26, 2016

MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2016
Markets headed nowhere yesterday and while remaining in a capped range, the NIFTY ended the day with minor losses while resisting precisely to the upper trend line of the falling channel drawn from 8968 levels. Today as well, we can expect a mildly negative start to the Markets and the levels of 50-DMA and the pattern resistance of the falling channel will continue to pose resistance to the NIFTY today and in coming sessions as well. Further, we enter the penultimate day of the expiry of the current series and we will continue to see the Markets in general remaining dominated with rollover centric activities.

For today, the levels of 8710 and 8745 will continue to act as immediate resistance levels. The supports will come in at 8650 and 8620 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 50.0686 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD is bullish as it trade above its signal line.

On the derivatives front, the NIFTY October series shed over 25.69 lakh shares or 15.48% in Open Interest. The November series added over 34.43 lakhs shares or 64.07% in OI resulting into net addition in the Open Interest.

While having a look at pattern analysis, the NIFTY has been resisting to the 50-DMA which is 8710 and also to the trend line drawn from 8968 levels. There is a falling channel that has appeared and NIFTY has been resisting to the falling trend line drawn from the 8968 levels. The 50-DMA now also coincides with this pattern resistance and therefore the levels of 8710-8720 will continue to pose resistance at Close levels as well. Until the NIFTY moves past 8750, there won’t be any resumption of up move visible in the Markets.

Overall, there has been lack of conviction seen in the participants and the NIFTY has not be able to move past its critical resistance zones. Until this happens, we will continue to see NIFTY trading in a range and heading nowhere. Volatility will remain ingrained in the Markets and we continue to reiterate to protect profits at higher levels as all upsides will remain vulnerable to intermittent selling bouts.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com


+91-98250-16331 

Monday, October 24, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, October 25, 2016

MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2016
The Markets on Monday traded exactly on analyzed lines. They continued to exhibit positive bias but also resisted to the 8710-8740 levels while it ended the day with minor gains. Today we keep our analysis on similar lines as the NIFTY is likely to continue to resist to 8740 levels which is a important pattern resistance as well. Markets also have a news developments at Tata Group as well to which it might react with a knee jerk reaction. However, in the long run, these developments will be viewed as a proactive actions from a sensitive Board in the general interest of the stakeholders at large.

For today, the levels of 8740 and 8775 will act as immediate resistance levels. The supports will come in at 8650 and 8625 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 51.4669 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD has reported a bullish crossover and it now trades above the signal line.

On the derivative front, some rollovers were witnessed as NIFTY October futures shed over 16.30 lakh shares or 8.94% in Open Interest while November futures added over 19.15 lakh shares or 55.36% in Open Interest resulting in to net addition in the OI.

While we have look at the pattern analysis, the NIFTY continued to resist to the upper trend line of the falling channel that the NIFTY has formed from the previous highs of 8968 level. Having said this, it has also been resisting at Close levels to the 50-DMA level which is 8709. With the NIFTY exhibiting positive bias, any move beyond 8740-50 zones will see the NIFTY making hard attempts to resume its up move. The reading of lead indicators and F&O data support this view as well.

Overall, though will might still witness some intraday volatility and choppiness and even minor declines, the inherent trend of the NIFTY continues to remain strong and it is likely to show resilience to any possible downside dips. Though some intermittent selling bouts cannot be ruled out, Markets will be seen making efforts to resume its up move and show good amount of resilience to downsides. While all dips should be continued to be utilized to make fresh purchases, cautious optimism is advised for the day.


Milan Vaishnav, CMT

Technical Analyst

Research Analyst ((SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA



+91-98250-16331 / +91- 70164-32277

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, October 24, 2016

MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2016
Though the equity markets on Friday recovered off its lows to end the day with minor losses, it continued to resist at 8690-8710 levels for the entire session. Today, on Monday as well, we will continue to see the NIFTY resist to these levels and the behavior vis-à-vis the 50-DMA of 8709 will be critical to watch out for. However, we may continue to see some resistance at these levels, some consolidation will happen but will happen with a positive bias as lead indicators are showing possible resumption in uptrend in coming days.

For today, the levels of 8710 and 8745 will act as immediate resistance levels. The supports will come in at 8650 and 8605 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 50.3060 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD stays bearish as it trades below its signal line. However, if the NIFTY continues to consolidate, we may see this indicator reporting a positive crossover. A minor engulfing candle on the Candles indicates a potential positive bias. However, this needs confirmation on the following day.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY October futures have shed over 3.90 lakh shares or 2.10% in Open Interest. This shows some possible short covering that happened in the second half of the session on Friday. The key would be to see if this gets replaced with fresh buying in coming days.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets continues now to remain in a falling channel drawn from 8968 levels. In between this formation, it is resisting to its 50-DMA which is 8709 and this may act as immediate resistance at Close levels. However, for the NIFTY to resume its up move, it needs to move past the levels of 8740-50. Until this happens, we will continue to see the NIFTY oscillating in a trading range.

As it has happened in previous week, we will continue to see out-performance from select stocks and individual stock specific performance may continue. However, given the indications from the lead indicators, we advice to refrain from any major short positions and use downsides to make fresh purchases. MidCaps, Energy, and Auto stocks will continue to outperform. Overall, cautiously positive outlook is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com


+91-98250-16331