Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, April 13, 2016

MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, APRIL 13, 2016

The Markets are likely to open on a decently positive note following stable Global cues. With this, the Markets may attempt to move past the resistance zone of 7700-7730 levels. However, it would be thoroughly important to see that the Markets maintain its expected opening gains and capitalize on it. It is also important to note that we once again have a short week with tomorrow and day-after-tomorrow being holidays on account of Dr. Ambedkar Jayanti and Ram Navmi respectively.

For today, the levels of 7730 and 7775 will act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. Supports come in much lower at 7660 and 7610 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 58.8997 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD is still bearish as it trades below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY April futures have shed over 5.07 lakh shares or 3.30% in Open Interest. The NIFTY PCR stands at 0.86 as against 0.83 levels.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets will attempt to move past the pattern resistance zone of 7700-7730 levels. It will have a minor resistance at 7775 levels. However, apart from all this, the key thing would be the ability of the Markets to capitalize on the expected positive opening. It would be very essential for the Markets to maintain the expected opening gains and continue with the up move. However, the consistently declining Open Interest with every up move certainly raises a question mark on the sustainability of the up moves.

Overall, we continue to reiterate that all the up moves should be utilized to protect and book profits. New positions should be created but the quantity should be kept moderated and purchases should be done on highly selective basis. More emphasis should be laid on booking / protecting profits at higher levels. We continue to reiterate to maintain cautious outlook on the Markets.


Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

+91-98250-16331

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, April 12, 2016

MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, April 12, 2016

Markets are likely to open on a flat note again. However, given that the Markets have ended near the high point of the day and in absence of any negative triggers, the Markets are likely to continue with its up move at least in the initial trade. However, speaking purely on technical terms, the Markets still continue to remain in a broadly defined trading range and still trades below its important pattern resistance.

For today, the levels of 7700 and 7725 will act as immediate resistance levels for today. The supports come in at 7650 and 7590 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 56.9579 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD stays bearish as it trades below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY April futures have shed over 3.15 lakh shares or 2.01% in Open Interest. This makes very much evident the amount of short covering that was witnessed from lower levels. The NIFTY PCR stands at 0.83 as against 0.73.

Coming to pattern analysis, the levels of 100—DMA and the pattern support near 7550 have acted as supports for the Markets for the immediate short term. The way the sloping trend line have acted as stiff resistance at levels 7700 and above, the pattern support at 7550 and the 100-DMA have held out as support at Close levels. Having said this, if we presume that the falling trend line continues to pose resistance for the Markets at levels 7700 and above, we will see the Markets consolidating with falling tops and a flat support. This may see a formation of Descending Triangle on the Daily Charts.However, this would be too early to comment. But as of now, the levels of 7700 and upwards will continue to act as stiff pattern resistance to the Markets.

Overall, the Markets will also remain cautious to the IIP and March CPI numbers that would come up later in the day today after the Market hours. The Markets still rules in a range below its pattern resistance. We reiterate that one should not get carried away with yesterday’s rise and use any up move that we witness to book and protected profits rather than creating any fresh positions. Continuance of cautious outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

+91-98250-16331



Monday, April 11, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, April 11, 2016

MARKET TREND FOR Monday, April 11, 2016                                             April 11, 2016

The Markets are expected to open on a quiet note and slightly into negative and look for directions. It has ended slightly below its 100-DMA and is likely to test its important pattern support of 7550 as well and therefore the intraday trajectory that the Markets form would be important to watch out for. Also, the levels of 7550 and the behavior of the Markets vis-à-vis the 100-DMA which is 7566 will be important at Close level as well. There are chances that both of these levels continue to pose resistance to the Markets.

The levels of 7566 and 7615 will act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports come in at 7510 and 7460 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 50.1965 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD stays bearish as it trades below its signal line. On the Weekly Charts, the Weekly RSI is 47.2070 and this too remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence. The Weekly MACD is bullish as it trades above its signal line. However, the histogram slope has shown minor signs of coming down. On the Weekly Candles, a Big Black Candle has occurred. This has occurred near the pattern resistance of a falling trend line drawn from 8600-levels and therefore has added credibility to this resistance levels.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY April futures have shed yet another 43,200 shares or 0.27% in Open Interest. Though this figure may seem insignificant individually, but the Markets have shed significant open interest over last couple of sessions.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have held the pattern resistance of a falling trend line sacrosanct. This trend line is falling and is drawn from 8600 levels. As per today, this poses major resistance to the Markets around 7700-7730 levels. On the lower side, the Markets have held on to its 100-DMA and it’s another pattern support of 7550. Though the Markets have ended the day slightly below 100-DMA it is still within its filter. However, it is important to note that if the Markets breach 7550 on the downside, we will see some more weakness creeping into the Markets.

Overall, the analysis would remain more or less once again on similar lines like that of entire previous week. The Markets will trade in a range with a downward bias and no significant up move shall occur until they move past 7700 levels. Until that happens will see the Markets attempting to take support around 7550 level. Any breach below this will induce further weakness in the Markets. We continue to reiterate to keep fresh purchases limited and adopt cautious outlook on the Markets for today.


Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

+91-98250-16331