Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, March 01, 2016

MARKET REPORT                                                                               March 1, 2016
The Markets faced the Union Budget on an extremely volatile note as it swung over 200-odd points either side and after such wild swings of 400-odd points ended the day with modest losses. The Markets opened on a modestly positive note and as expected, it saw a sideways movement in a narrow trajectory in the morning session. However, once the Budget proposals started to pour in, the Markets did not take them kindly and saw a near vertical fall after initial reaction. It went on to form the fresh 52-week low of 6825.80 by afternoon. However, it did also witness a nearly V-shaped recovery as well. The Markets sharply recovered from its lows and recovered all of its gains and also traded back into positive while forming day’s high of 7094.60. After swinging nearly 400-odd points it finally settled the day at 6987.05, posting a net loss of 42.70 points of 0.61% while forming a higher top but sharply lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 01, 2016
Though the Markets posted its fresh 52-week lows yesterday, it has maintained the double bottom support of 6970 levels at Close. Today, we can fairly expect a modestly positive opening to the Markets. We can also expect some more short covering to continue. It would be important for the Markets to maintain the expected opening gains and maintain itself above 6950 levels in order to avoid any weakness.

For today, the levels of 7050 and 7195 will act as immediate resistance levels for today. The supports come in at 6950 and 6860 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 37.2984 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD stays bearish as it trades below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY March series have shed over 4.49 lakh shares or 2.43% in Open Interest. It signifies that there was massive short covering from lower levels that was seen yesterday.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets breached its previous 52-week low of 6869 while it formed a fresh 52-week low of 6825. However, as it recovered from its lows, the support in form of minor Double Bottom at 6970 was held and maintained at Close. Though the Markets may continue to witness good amount of volatility in coming session, it would be important and critical for the Markets to maintain levels above 6750 at Close levels in order to avoid any fresh weakness from creeping in. The Market will continue to witness intraday volatility and the levels of 6825 will act as intraday support as well. However, as of now the Markets continue to remain in its broad range of 6900-7250.

All and all, the Markets are clearly not out of the woods and it will continue to witness some reactive volatility as well. Global headwinds are likely to contribute to the technical structure as well. Having said that, so long as Markets maintain levels above 6850 levels, selective purchases in moderate quantities may be made. Shorts, at these times, should be avoided. While guarding existing positions at higher levels, cautious outlook should be continued for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

+91-98250-16331



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