MARKET REPORT March
31, 2016
The Markets posed a strong comeback as it
ended the day with robust gains but continued to remain within its pattern
resistance levels. The Markets saw a positive opening aided by positive global
set up and remained in positive territory throughout the session. The Markets
saw a near gap up opening and after this it remained in upward rising
trajectory. Such structure of the Markets remained throughout the session and
there was no one point where it witnessed any pressure. It kept making gradual
intraday highs and towards the end formed its intraday high of 7741.95. It
finally settled the day at 7735.20, posting a net gain of 138.20 points or
1.82% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 31,
2016
Even after witnessing a robust up move, the
Markets still continue to remain within the ambit of its resistance levels.
Today would be a critical session as not only the Markets may open flat around
its pattern resistance and attempt to find directions, but today is also expiry
day of the current derivative series and this would see the session remain
severely dominated with rollovers. Any move above 7750 levels will see the
Markets testing inching upwards. If the Markets fail to do so we will once
again see them consolidating in a given range.
For today, the levels of 7750 and 7795 will
act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports come in lower
at 7650 and 7610 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the
Daily Chart is 64.3221 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish
divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD stays bullish as it trades
above its signal line.
On the derivative front, the NIFTY March futures
shed over 15.88 lakh shares or 9.90% in Open Interest. The April series added
over 28.61 lakh shares or 25.26% in Open Interest resulting in net addition in
OI. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.08 as against 0.96.
Coming to pattern analysis, even though the
Markets saw a robust up move yesterday, it still resisted to the falling trend
line drawn from 8600 levels. Having said this, with today’s flat opening
expected, the Markets will spend some time around this level of 7750 and it
would be important to see if the Markets are able to move past this falling
trend line resistance. If the Markets are able to move past this level, we can
expect to test 7800-7825 levels on the Charts. However, in the event of the
Markets not breaching 7750 on the upside, we will continue to remain in broad consolidation
with some intermittent selling bouts from higher levels.
Overall, with today being the expiry day,
we cannot rule out volatility remaining ingrained in the session. The levels of
7750 will be important to watch out for and some runaway rally would occur if
the Markets move past this level. However, with the Markets still trading
within the ambit of its resistance levels we continue to reiterate to use every
up move to book and protect profits at higher levels. Cautious outlook on the
Markets is advised for the day.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst
Member: Market
Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Member: Association of Technical
Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
+91-98250-16331
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