Monday, March 28, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, March 28, 2016

MARKET REPORT                                                                                     March 28, 2016
Markets continued to display remarkable strength while also resisting at key levels as it recovered from the lows of the day to end the day flat with nominal gains. The Markets saw a flat opening and it soon slipped into the red in the morning trade. After spending the morning trade in a capped range, the Markets slipped further and by afternoon session, it went on to form the day’s low of 7670.60. It was in the second half of the session that the Markets saw recovery coming in. The Markets reversed its intraday trend, formed a upward rising trajectory and recouped all of its losses to trade in the positive territory. It went on to form the day’s high of 7726.85. It finally settled the day at 7716.50, posting a flat close with nominal gains of 1.60 points or 0.02% while forming a similar top and slightly higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, MARCH 28, 2016
Markets will open today after trading holidays on Thursday and Friday. Today’s opening is likely to witness the adjustment to the global trade set-up on these two days on which the Markets was closed. The opening today is likely to remain flat and the Markets will look for directions and adjustments. There are high chances that we will see the Markets continuing to consolidate and good amount of chance that it would witness some minor profit taking from higher levels.

For today, the Markets are face likely resistance at 7730 and 7745 levels. Supports come lower at 7670 and 7610 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 67.0111 and it has just reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. However, it does not show any bullish or bearish divergence on the Charts. The Daily MACD stays bullish as it trades above its signal line. On the Candles, a Doji Star occurred. This has followed a candle with long lower shadow and it has some potential to pause the up move of the Markets. On the Weekly Charts, the Weekly RSI is 50.9199 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. The Weekly RSI has also formed a fresh 14-week high whereas the NIFTY has not yet and this is Bullish Divergence. The Weekly MACD remains bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY March futures have added over 6.39 lakh shares or 3.03% in Open Interest. Some amount of rollovers has also been witnessed.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets after pulling back over 900-odd points from the lows of the Budget session, have moved past its important resistance levels of 7550 and also its 100-DMA thereafter. Following this, it now finds itself near a multiple pattern resistance once again and there are bright chances that the Markets consolidate at these levels. There is also fair amount of likelihood that the Markets may witness some amount of profit taking from higher levels as well. Though the lead indicators on the Daily and Weekly Chart indicate a bullish set up, the Markets resisting at its pattern resistances just cannot be ruled out. Some amount of consolidation would be in fact healthy for the Markets in the immediate short term. Given the overall set up on the technical charts, runaway rise is something that would not be expected.

Overall, we also enter the expiry week of the current derivative series. We will continue to see the trade dominated with rollover centric activities and this will infuse some amount of volatility in the Markets as well. The zones of 7730-7765 will act as a major resistance for the Markets going upwards. While remaining in line with this analysis, we continue to reiterate our cautious stand on the Markets and advice more emphasis on protecting profits at higher levels while keeping fresh purchases to moderate levels.


Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

+91-98250-16331

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