Thursday, December 24, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, December 24, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                    December 24, 2015
Markets had a very healthy and stable session yesterday as it opened positive, maintained its gains and went on to end the day with decent gains. The Markets saw positive start as expected and after trading with stable gains, inched up further to post gradual highs. The Markets spent nearly entire session in a sideways trajectory where it maintained its gains in a steadfast manner. In the second half, it got some more strength and formed its intraday high of 7871.45. These levels too were maintained and the Markets therefore successfully defended its critical levels of 7820 for the entire day. While maintaining these gains, the Markets finally ended the day at 7865.95, posting a net gain of 79.85 points or 1.03% while forming higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, DECEMBER 24, 2015
The Markets have advanced yesterday ending near the high point of the day and speaking purely on technical grounds, we can expect a modestly positive opening once again. Markets are expected to open on a modestly positive note and is likely to advance in the initial trade. The most logical target of this continuance of the up move can be the 50-DMA levels, i.e.  7933 levels. However, it remains important for the Markets to defend 7820 levels in event 
of any consolidation.

For today, the levels of 7900 and 7935 will act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports come in at 7840 and 7820 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 53.2270 and it does no tshow any bullish or bearish divergences. However, the RSI has formed its fresh 14-day high and this is bullish. The Daily MACD stays bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY December futures have shed over 13.14 lakh shares or 7.13% in Open Interest. This is a very clear indication of heavy short covering taking place yesterday. The NIFTY PCR stands at 0.83 as against 0.80.

Coming to pattern analysis, as detailed in our yesterday’s edition, the Markets have attempted to confirm the bottom / reversal. It pulled back some 300-odd points from its important pattern support and a 52-week lows and thereafter it oscillated and consolidated in 100-odd points range and attempted to move up once again forming a higher bottom. If it continues to do so and succesfully forms and confirms a immediate bottom, the next logical targets / resistance would be the 7930-7940 range for the  Markets.

All and all, the Markets are likely to open positive, and trade with modest gains in the initial trade. It would be important for the Markets to sustain and continue to buuild up on the expected modest opening that it might get. In event of any consolidation / minor weakness, the 7820 levels would be important to watch out for. Cautiously positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, December 23, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                     December 23, 2015
What seemed to be a stable session turned out to be a disappointing one as the Markets gave up in the second half of the session to end the day with modest losses. The Markets saw a quiet but slightly negative opening and spent the morning session trading with minor losses in a capped and narrow range. The Markets maintained itself above the 7800 mark and in the first half of the session, traded in upward rising trajectory trying to recovery opening losses. The Markets kept advancing gradually but overall remained in a narrow range. At one point in the afternoon, the Markets saw itself trading in positive trajectory while forming the day’s high of 7846.30. It was once gain the final hour and half of the trade which did the most of the undoing. The Markets saw a sharp selling pressure from these levels and pared ground rapidly. It went on to dip once again in the negative trajectory and formed the day’s low at 7776.85. It finally settled the day at 7786.10, posting a net loss of 48.35 points or 0.62% while forming a slightly higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 23, 2015
Markets are poised at a very critical juncture as it has been resisting to a rising trend line which also acts as a important pattern resistance. Today, we can expect a positive opening for the Markets and it would be of paramount importance that the Markets builds up further post positive opening in order to confirm the reversal / formation of a bottom. The trend line has been rising and so is the resistance level associated with this. The levels of 7820 would be important to watch out for in this context.

For today, the levels of 7820 and 7870 will act as important resistance levels for the Markets. The supports come in at 7750 and 7720 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 48.1722 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD is bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY December futures have shed over 1.08 lakh shares or 0.59% in Open Interest. This figure, once again remains relatively negligible. The NIFTY PCR stands at 0.80 as against 0.81.

Coming to pattern analysis, as mentioned often, the Markets have been attempting to confirm a bottom / reversal after it took support at its 52-week lows and a double bottom. Having said this, it pulled back some 300-odd points from there. It has been oscillating in a capped 100-odd points range and have been resisting to its important pattern resistance level of 7800. It is important to note that this pattern resistance is a rising trend line and therefore with each passing day, the level required to move past this resistance also rises. This makes it difficult for the Markets to give a decisive up move. Today, this important level stands at 7820.

All and all, as mentioned above, the levels of 7820 would be important and it would be critically important for the Markets to move past this level. Until it does so, the Markets will continue to oscillate and will remain of any devoid of any decisive up move. No clear directional bias or confirmation of bottom will take place until this happens. While remaining moderate on overall exposures, selective and cautiously positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, December 22, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                         December 22, 2015
Markets saw a negative opening but also saw a smart rally from the opening lows and ended the day with decent gains. The Markets saw a modestly negative opening on expected lines and formed its intraday low of 7733.45 in the morning trade. The Markets traded with capped losses in the morning trade but the late morning trade saw a sharp up move from the low point of the day. However, the Markets resisted to its important resistance levels of 7800 as it traded in sideways trajectory after touching these levels. However, the second half of the session saw some more strength coming in as the Markets remained in upward rising trajectory and kept forming new highs gradually. It finally formed its intraday high of 7840.75 in the late afternoon trade and the Markets were able to maintain these levels. It finally settled the day at 7834.45, posting a decent gain of 72.50 points or 0.93% while forming a higher top but lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2015
We are likely to see a flat opening today and the Markets are likely to oscillate in a capped range. The Markets have attempted to remain above 7800 levels and today as well, in event of any minor downsides, it would be very important for the Markets to remain above this level in order to just consolidate and avoid any weakness from creeping in. The volumes would continue to remain lower as well.

For today, the levels of 7850 and 7910 will act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports come in at 7800 and 7730 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts stands at 51.2887 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY December futures have shed nominal 88,875 shares or 0.48% in Open Interest. This certainly indicates minor short covering in net terms but the change in OI remains negligible. The NIFTY PCR stands at 0.81 as against 0.78.

Coming to pattern analysis, if we take a broader look, the Markets bounced back nearly 300-odd points from its very important pattern support and 52-week low levels of 7540. Having done this, it is now attempting to confirm a bottom. In previous couple of sessions, the Markets have consolidated in a broad range of 100-oddpoints and have so far managed to remain above one of its important pattern resistance levels of 7800. In ideal situation, we can see the Markets consolidating in a ranged manner for some more time and ultimately resuming its up move. In order to confirm its bottom and resume its up move, it would be important for the Markets to stay above 7800 levels.

All and all, the levels of 7800-7810 remain critical to watch out for. Any breach below these levels will delay the confirmation of a bottom and will keep the Markets vulnerable to selling pressures. The volumes would be important but due to the week shortened by holidays, we can expect volumes to be thin. It is advised to continue to adopt very cautious and stock specific outlook on the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Monday, December 21, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, December 21, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                           December 21, 2015
Markets failed to confirm its reversal and consolidated on expected lines as it gave up nearly all of its Thursday’s gains to end the day with losses. The Markets saw modestly lower opening but traded in a capped range above its critical pattern support levels of 7800. However, Markets slowly pared its gains and by early afternoon, traded flat and in sideways trajectory near its pattern support. It was in the second half that the Markets saw some pressure coming in. The Markets slipped below its important pattern support of 7800 and dipped further into negative. It saw some recovery coming in the late afternoon trade but the final half hour of the trade saw a even sharper decline. The Markets formed its day’s low of 7753.35 and as it did not see any major recovery coming in, finally settled the day at 7761.95, posting a net loss of 82.40 points or 1.05% while forming a lower top but higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, DECEMBER 25, 2015
Markets have traded very much on analyzed lines on Friday as it tried to defend the levels of 7800 in the morning but later slipped and ended below it. Today, we can fairly expect the Markets to open on a modestly negative note and trade with minor losses in the initial trade. Today, the Markets would again face a resistance at 7800-7810 range and the behavior of the Markets vis-à-vis these levels would be critical to watch out for. Until the Markets moves past these levels, it will not confirm any reversal and would remain susceptible to selling pressures.

For today, the levels of 7800 and 7835 will act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports come in at 7740 and 7680 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 46.4664 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it trades above its signal line. On the Weekly Charts, the Weekly RSI is 42.5261 and this too remains neutral without showing any bullish or bearish divergences or any failure swings. 
The Weekly MACD remains bearish as well while trading below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY December futures have shed over 4.216 lakh shares or 2.24% in Open Interest. This clearly signifies unwinding of long positions in the Markets. The NIFTY PCR stands at 0.78 as against 0.82.

While having a look at pattern analysis, the Markets have continued to resist to 7800 level. Though it defended this level in the first half of the session on Friday, it ultimately slipped below that level and closed well below that. This level was a major pattern resistance that the Markets needed to move past and sustain above that. Therefore, this level will continue to pose resistance for the Markets in the immediate short term. Further, in this situation, even though the Markets have shown good amount of pullback from recent 52-week low and pattern support, it is yet to confirm its bottom and therefore continues to remain susceptible to some more weakness.

All and all, in event of the Markets not confirming its bottom, it becomes necessary that we continue to wear a cautious outlook on the Markets. Until the Markets meaningfully crosses 7800-7810 levels and sustain above that, short term weakness will continue to persist and the Markets will remain vulnerable to selling pressures from higher levels. While remaining highly selective, continuance of cautious stand is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com