Friday, July 10, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, July 10, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                         July 10, 2015
The Markets remained in corrective mode and ended the day with modest losses after spending the session trading on a flat note and on lower volumes. The Markets saw a good positive start and formed its intraday high of 8400.30 in the early minutes of the trade. The Markets failed to remain above its 200-DMA levels and dipped below it after trading briefly above that. The Markets pared its opening gains and traded into negative in late morning trade. It did manage to recover and trade back into positive territory but it did so very briefly. The Markets slipped in the last hour and half of trade and went on to form the day’s low of 8323. No major recovery was seen from these levels and the Markets finally ended the day at 8328.55, posting a modest loss of 34.50 points or 0.41% while continuing to form lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, JULY 10, 2015
The Markets are expected to open on a modestly positive note and trade positive in the initial trade. The Markets are in consolidation mode and are within its filter of 200-DMA at Close levels and is expected to remain in this range for a while. The Markets are likely to consolidate  with the levels of 200-DMA, i.e. 8384 on the upside. Fresh upsides will only occur above this level and until then, we can expect the Markets to continue to see ranged consolidation. Markets would also react to IIP data coming in evening and also to Inflation figure on Monday.

For today, the levels of 8384 and 8450 would act as important resistance for the Markets. The supports come in at 8300 and 8270 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 49.6701 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days. The RSI has also set a fresh 14-period low but NIFTY has not yet and this is Bearish Divergence. The Daily MACD is bullish as it continues to trade above its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY July futures have shed over 3.20 lakh shares or 1.76% in Open Interest. This shows some unwinding of positions yesterday.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have halted its pullback after failing to move past its 100-DMA. In normal circumstances, it was supposed to consolidate between its 200-DMA and 100-DMA but it has breached its 200-DMA as well. Having said this, it is important to note that it still remains just within the filter of 200-DMA and with today’s positive opening, there are fair chances that the Markets continues to consolidate and shows limited downside risks. However, fresh up move shall occur only after the Markets moves past 8400 levels comprehensively.

All and all, as mentioned, until the Markets moves past 8400-levels, it will continue to consolidate with a mild downside bias. Given this technical structure, it is advised to now restrain fresh purchases and remain away from taking large directional exposures. More liquidity should be maintained and fresh purchases should be curtailed until the directional bias is established. Until then consolidation and mild downside risk would continue. Cautious outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

Consultant to:
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Thursday, July 9, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, July 09, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                  July 09, 2015
Chinese mess took toll on Indian Markets as well along with other Asian peers as the Markets remained corrective today ending with good amount of losses though the levels of 200-DMA has held out as support at close levels. The Markets saw a gap down opening on expected lines and traded with losses in the morning trade. The losses deepened in the afternoon trade as the Markets went on to form the day’s low of 8341.40 in the mid afternoon trade. Post opening of the European Markets, NIFTY did make an attempt to pullback and did manage to recover some part of its losses. However, the last half hour of the trade saw weakness returning again and took the Markets very near to its low point of the day. Markets finally settled the day at 8363.05, posting a net loss of 147.75 points while forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, JULY 09, 2015
Markets are expected to open on a quiet and flat note and look for directions. Markets have taken support at its 200-DMA at close levels and are within its filter. Today’s session remains very critically important for the Markets and today’s behaviour of the Markets vis-à-vis the levels of 200-DMA would determine the trend for the immediate short term. Irrespective of the opening, it would be very important for the Markets to move past the levels of 200-DMA and trade above that.
For today, the levels of 8384 and 8475 are immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports come in at 8320 and 8250 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 52.0088 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. Further, the RSI has set a fresh  14-day low but NIFTY has not yet. This is Bearish Divergence. However, the Daily MACD remains bullish as it trades above its signal line.
On the derivative front, NIFTY July futures have shed over 4.08 lakh shares or 2.19% in Open Interest. This signifies unwinding of the positions to some extent. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.1 as against 1.14.
Looking at pattern analysis, the Markets have attempted to take support at its 200-DMA at Close levels. It has closed a notch below that but remains within its filter. It would be very critically important to see that the Markets moves past the levels of 200-DMA which is 8383 today. Failure to do so will induce some weakness in the near term for the Markets and will also put some question markets on the reversal that it has confirmed in the previous sessions and also make it vulnerable to test its 50-DMA which is 8270 levels.
All and all, though we are likely to see a quiet opening in the Markets, the behaviour of the Markets vis-à-vis 200-DMA would be critical to watch out for. It would be imperative for the Markets to maintain levels above 8383 and Close above that. Fresh purchases may be made but on very selective and in limited quantity. More liquidity should be maintained and provided for until the Markets take a directional bias above 200-DMA. Cautious outlook is advised for the day.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

 

Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, July 08, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                        July 08, 2015
Markets spent a cautious session yesterday as it consolidated on expected lines and ended the day with minor losses. The Markets saw a quiet opening and soon formed its intraday high of 8561.35 in the early minutes of the trade. However, soon it pared its opening gains and traded with modest gains in the initial trade. The Markets continued to move sideways in a narrow range for most part of the session. It was in the late afternoon trade that the Markets got weaker and dipped into the negative territory. It went on to form the day’s low of 8483.85. However, again, some recovery was seen from these levels and the Markets finally ended the day at 8510.80, posting a minor loss of 11.35% or 0.13% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 08, 2015
Markets once again remain today at a critical juncture. Even with all technical indicators in place, the Markets are likely to open on a negative note following global weakness. In event of the Markets witnessing a gap down opening again, it is likely to find itself below its 100-DMA levels. It would be crucially important for the Markets to maintain support of its 100-DMA at Close levels. In event of the Markets breaching these levels, it may be seen testing its 200-DMA.

The levels of 8470 and 8410 are immediate supports for today. Levels of 8550 and 8590 would be immediate support for the Markets.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 63.9909 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it comfortably trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY July futures have further added over 8.50 lakh shares or over 4.79% in Open Interest. This suggests some good amount of shorts have been added post yesterday’s high and some fresh buying too is indicated from these levels. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.13 as against 1.12.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have attempted to move past its 100-DMA levels after confirming its bottom after forming a higher bottom at 8195. However, given the rise in the Markets in last couple of session, it is very much likely that the Markets may consolidate at these levels. In any case, the levels of 100-DMA, or in little worse scenario, the 200-DMA is likely to act as its major support. Given the technical indicators and as supported by F&O data, the Markets are likely to have very limited downside. However, in order to consolidate and avoid any weakness, the Markets will have to maintain itself above 100-DMA at Close. If this level breaches, the Markets will find itself consolidating in a little wider range.

Overall, the Markets are likely to see a weak opening but given the technical indicators and the F&O data, we are again likely to see improvement as the session progresses. The Markets are most likely to take support at its 100-DMA at Close levels. If this level breaches, the Markets may find itself consolidating in a wider range with the levels of 200-DMA acting as support. However, we strongly reiterate not to short the Markets as the Markets will have very limited downsides. As usual, while using any initial downsides as a buying opportunity, cautious optimism is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331


Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, July 07, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                          July 07, 2015
Markets traded precisely as analyzed as it did gave a gap down opening, took support at its 200-DMA and then recovered as the day progressed and ended the day with modest gains. The Markets saw a gap down opening following which it made its day’s low at 8386.15 in the morning session. Though this level was formed in the initial trade, the Markets traded in a narrow range in the first half of the session. It was in the second half that the Markets saw recovery coming in. The Markets saw itself changing trajectory in the second half and managed to recover all of its losses. It also went on to trade in the positive territory in the late afternoon trade while forming day’s high of 8533.16. Markets rose nearly 150-odd points from the low point of the day. These levels were sustained and the Markets finally settled the day at 8522.15, posting a modest gain of 37.25 points or 0.44% while forming a higher top but lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, JULY 07, 2015
Expect the Markets to open on a flat and quiet note with a positive bias and look for cues in the initial trade. Though the undercurrent remains intact, the Markets may consolidate in the initial trade as it has risen over 150-odd points in the yesterday’s trade. In event of any temporary weakness or any consolidation, the levels of 100-DMA should act as support. This is the resistance level that the Markets moved past yesterday.

For today, the levels of 8550 and 8595 are immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports come in at 8460 and 8410 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 65.0601 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD remains firmly bullish while trading above its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY July futures have added over 3.87 lakh shares or 2.23% in the Net Open Interest. This is certainly bullish indicators which once again suggest that there has been no short covering in yesterday’s pullback from lower levels. Fresh buying has been seen. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.13 as against 1.11.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have not clearly confirmed its bottom at 7950-8000 levels. After taking support at these levels, the Markets pulled back, declined to form a higher bottom at 8195 and have once a gain pulled back. This has led to confirmation of this bottom, at least as of now. Given the fact that the Markets have risen over 150-odd points from the lows of yesterday, we may see it consolidating briefly but the undercurrent certainly remains intact.

Overall, all technical indicators and supportive figures point towards continuation of uptrend in the Markets. Even if the Markets consolidates a bit, gathers strength, and remains above its 100-DMA, it should be perfectly fine from any angle. One can continue to make purchases in the select stocks while maintaining vigil on profits at higher levels.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331