Friday, June 26, 2015

Brief Market Forecast for the Day -- Friday, June 26, 2015

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Thursday, June 25, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, June 25, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                      June 25, 2015
The Markets took a pause yesterday after eight straight days of gains as it ended the day with minor losses after coming off from its high point in the last thirty minutes of the trade. The Markets saw a flat opening and after trading very briefly in the negative in the early seconds of the trade crawled into the positive territory. The Markets went ahead to post minor gains in the morning trade and thereafter spent nearly entire session in the sideways trajectory while forming the day’s high at 8421.35 in the late afternoon trade. However, it was last thirty minutes of the trade that undid the Markets. The Markets came off sharply from that level and traded flat after paring all of its gains. It further dipped into the negative while forming the day’s low at 8338.90. It finally settled the day at 8360.85, posting a minor loss of 20.70 points or 0.25% while forming a higher top and nearly similar bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR Thursday, 25 June 2015
We keep today’s analysis more or less on yesterday’s lines. Paring of gains yesterday was more technical than the Greek reason as rollovers dominated the session. The Markets are expected again to open on a flat and quiet note and look for directions. Today is the expiry day of the current derivative series and we will continue to see rollover dominated activities with some amount of volatility ingrained in it.
The levels of 8425 and 8470 are immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports come in at 8330 and 8290 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 58.5340 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.
On the derivative front, NIFTY added net of 23.50 lakh shares in Open Interest. NIFTY witnessed 45% rollovers and Market-wide rollovers were seen at 56%.
Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have pullback from its near term double bottom support of 7990-8010 levels and while doing so have also moved past the falling trend line and 50-DMA resistance of 8300 levels. Having said this, since the Markets have posted eight days of gains totalling to nearly 400-odd points, it would be no surprise if it consolidates briefly at this levels. With the Close hovering around its 200-DMA which is 8360, it would be perfectly natural and fine if the Markets consolidates between 8290 and 8360 range.
All and all, given the expiry day today, the Markets are likely to remain dominated with rollover centric activities. The volumes remained low yesterday but today it might remain bit higher coupled with some amount of volatility ingrained in it. With the chances of the Markets consolidating briefly at these levels, fresh positions should be taken very selectively and should be kept limited. The Markets will consolidate but resume its sustainable up move only after it moves past 8425 levels. Overall, continuation of vigilant approach is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com
+91-98250-16331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

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Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, June 24, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                June 24, 2015
The Markets continued to gain for the eighth day in a row as they ended the day with minor gains after a range bound trade. The Markets saw a flat opening and soon dipped into the negative territory to form the day’s low of 8334.95. However, within minutes, it soon crawled back into the positive territory after remaining negative for a very brief period. It soon went on to form the day’s high of 83.98.45 in the late morning trade. It was in the early afternoon trade that the Markets came off from its highs again to trade flat. Thereafter, it did recover and spent the remaining part of the session moving in a very range bound manner. It finally ended the day at 8381.55, posting a net gain of 28.45 points or 0.34% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Chart.
MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, JUNE 24, 2015
 Today, we enter into penultimate day of the expiry of current derivative series and therefore we can expect the session to remain dominated with rollover centric activities. The Markets may open on a flat to mildly positive note and look for directions. Yesterday it has kept hovering around their 200-DMA level which is 8364.  In event of the Markets moving past this level, this will become support in the near term.
The levels of 8410 and 8475 are immediate resistance levels for the Markets today. The supports come in at 8364 and 8291-8310 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 59.9979 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. Though, it does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daly MACD remains bullish as it trades above its signal line.
On the derivative front, rollovers continued as the NIFTY June futures shed over 11.23 lakh shares or 8.69% in Open Interest. The July futures added over 20.03 lakh shares or 47.14% in open interest. The NIFTY PCR rose to 1.17 as against 1.14 on the previous day.
Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have attempted to form a bottom by taking a support on the double bottom support levels at 7950-8000 range. It has then pulled back and has moved past its 50-DMA and 200-DMA. The Markets have managed to show strong possibility of confirming its bottom as it moved past  the falling trend line resistance as well as it 50-DMA but it still trades within the filter of its 200-DMA. If it moves past this level, this level would become its support. In event of any temporary weakness, it is likely to consolidate between its 50-DMA and 200-DMA levels.
All and all, the Markets have continued to inch up but at the same time, it is likely that it sees some profit booking at higher levels and might consolidate in a given range before it resumes its up move. Further, the pending rollovers might induce some ranged trade or even some volatility at some point of time. Though the Markets have shown strong signs of confirming its bottom, it is advised to adopt vigilant approach at higher levels.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com
+91-98250-16331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com
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Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, June 23, 2015



MARKET REPORT                                                                                 June 23, 2015

Backed by sharp short covering along with some fresh buying as well, the Markets staged a sharp up move yesterday as it ended the day with decent gains. The Markets saw a positive opening and saw its elf in upward rising trajectory throughout the session. While forming an upward rising channel post opening, the Markets kept posting fresh gradual highs during the day. It also managed to move past the 50-DMA level and downward sloping trend line and tested its 200-DMA levels as well which is 8361.74. The Markets went on to form the day’s high of 8369.45 in the last 30-minutes of the trade. It came off a bit from those levels but decently hanged on to its gains. It finally ended the day at 8353.10, posting a decent gain of 128.15 points or 1.56% while forming a sharply higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, JUNE 23, 2015

Today, once again, the Markets are likely to open on a modestly positive to quiet note and look for directions. There are all chances that the Markets continues with its up move at least in the initial trade but it now trades between its 50-DMA and 200-DMA and some consolidation in between these two levels cannot be ruled out. In event of any minor downside, the levels of 8290-8310, which was resistance earlier on, will act as support.

For today, the levels of 8365 and 8430 will act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports will come in at 8310 and 8265 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 58.6791 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence though. The Daily MACD is bullish as it trades above its signal line. The candles show some more potential upsides for the Markets.

On the derivative front, rollovers continued and roughly stood at 25% as of yesterday. NIFTY June futures shed over 20.81 lakh shares or 13.86% in Open Interest whereas July Futures added over 13.47 lakh shares or 46.40% in Open Interest. NIFTY PCR stands at 1.14 as against 1.04 on the previous day.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have attempted to move past the falling trend line resistance and 50-DMA which coincided at 8290-8310 levels. Having done this, it is likely to resist at close to its 200-DMA which stands at 8362. In any case, if it happens to move past these levels as well, this will become its support later on. In event of any minor downsides or some amount of consolidation, the levels of 8290-8310 will continue to act as support and will help markets confirm its attempted reversal.

Overall, the upside bias will remain but at higher levels some natural amount of profit taking or some amount of consolidation cannot be ruled out. However, apart from technicals, we will also be dictated by rollover centric activities and given the shorts that exists in the system; we might also continue to see some more upside as well. Some amount of volatility may return and profits if any, should be protected at higher levels. However, even if some consolidation happens, overall bias remains on the upside in the immediate short term.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


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Monday, June 22, 2015

BRIEF MARKET FORECAST FOR THE DAY -- MONDAY, JUNE 22, 2015

We have not been able to publish full edition of Daily Market Trend Guide in regular PDF Format. However, Brief Market Forecast for the day is reproduced below. Inconvenience is sincerely regretted.
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BRIEF MARKET FORECAST FOR THE DAY -- MONDAY, JUNE 22, 2015

The Markets continued to end the sixth day with gains on Friday and today as well, the Markets are expected to open on a positive note and look for directions. However, continuing the thread of analysis carried out on Friday, the Markets are approaching its falling channel trend line and 50-DMA as well. This may lead the Markets to consolidate at higher levels.

The RSI--Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 52.0696 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. Further RSI has made a fresh 14-day high but NIFTY has not. This is Bullish  Divergence. The Daily MACD too is bullish as it trades above its signal line. The Candles imply potential continuation of bullish trend.

The levels of 8260 and 8300 are likely to act as resistance on the upside. However, with still some room for upside in the Markets, we may continue to see select purchases and sectoral out performance in the Markets. Again, some possibility of consolidation in the Markets at higher levels cannot be ruled out.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331
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