Friday, June 5, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, June 05, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                             June 05, 2015
Markets had a session with heightened volatility as it moved 60-odd points on either side but finally ended the day on a absolutely flat note. The Markets saw a flat opening and after trading positive for a brief time, slipped in to the negative. However, it again saw itself moving in the positive territory in the morning trade and formed its intraday high of 8160.05. Markets traded sideways without any directional bias but soon saw itself under selling pressure again amid some global concerns of surging bond prices and weak opening in European markets and formed the intraday low of 8056.75. However, the second half of the session saw the Markets recovering in a remarkable manner especially in last hour and half of trade. The Markets managed to recover almost its entire losses and it finally settled the day flat at 8130.65, posting a very nominal loss of 4.45 points or 0.05% while continuing to form a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, JUNE 05, 2015
Today, though we continue to keep our analysis more or less on similar lines, we can expect some pain in the initial trade today. Expect the Markets to open on a negative note today and attempt to find its bottom just like it did yesterday. There are faint chances that we see some improvement post negative opening as we go ahead in the session. The Markets have continued to pile up short position as evident from the F&O data.

The levels of 8175 and 8230 are likely to act as immediate resistance for today. Supports would come in at 8050 and 8000 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 38.6326 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. Though it does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. Daily MACD remains bearish as it trades below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY June futures have added over 2.31 lakh shares or 1.44% in Open Interest. This makes it evident that more shorts have been added in the system yesterday and there was also some buying that was seen yesterday in last 90 minutes of the trade.

Taking a cue from pattern analysis, the Markets are expected to hold its bottoms formed on May 7th. It is very much likely that the Markets do not go below 8050 levels and in case of it going below this levels, it will take support on the bottoms formed on May 7th. Possibilities of this happening seem very less as the Markets have already started piling shorts and has shown clear discomfort at levels near 8050. On the upside, the levels of 200-DMA will continue to pose resistance. The Markets have not formed any confirmed bottom and have not shown any clear signs of reversal as of now.

All and all, keeping all of the above in view, we continue to reiterate our advice to remain very light on the overall exposure. Though some bargain hunting can be done, it should be very limited and stock specific. Overall, continuance of highly cautious outlook is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Thursday, June 4, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, June 04, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                       June 04, 2015
Contrary to what was expected yesterday,  the Markets continued to show weakness as it ended yet another day with losses after opening on a flat note. This time, the stocks whose promoter pledging was extremely high and who had debts in multiple of their market cap bore severe burnt along with general weakness that prevailed in the Markets. The Markets opened on a flat note and soon slipped into negative territory in the initial trade. After trading with capped losses in the morning trade, the Markets saw selling pressure intensifying in the afternoon trade and at one point of time the Markets went on to form the day’s low of 8094.15 slipping below the psychological 8100-mark. It was in the last hour of the trade that the Markets saw some recovery coming in form of some buying as well as some short covering. Markets saw some 60-odd point recovery but it finally settled the day at 8135.10, posting a net loss of 101.35 points or 1.23% while forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, JUNE 04, 2015
Today, expect the Markets to open on a modestly positive note and look for directions. We can expect some stability to return in the Markets after two days of volatile declines and expect at least a technical pullback in the initial trade. However, as of now, the Markets trade significantly below its 200-DMA and therefore, this level will continue to act as resistance in coming days. The Markets, as of today, has failed to confirm its reversal on the Daily Charts.

For today, the levels of 8190 and 8240 will act as immediate resistance whereas the levels of 8090 and 8020 will act as immediate supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 38.8160 and reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. However, it does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD has reported a negative crossover and it now trades below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY June futures have shed 86,050 shares or 0.5% in Open Interest. Though this figure remains insignificant and small, it certainly indicates that there has been some short covering that took place in the final hour of the trade yesterday.

Taking a cue from pattern analysis, the Markets now trades below all of its moving averages and therefore the intermediate trend remains moderately bearish. There will not be any trend reversal from the lows it posted on May7th unless the Markets moves past its moving averages forming a higher bottom. Until this happens, the Markets will continue to trade in a  broad 300-odd points trading range with quite good amount of volatility and with moderately downward bias.

All and all, today, we can fairly expect a technical pullback in the initial trade. However, as it happened in the past, merely short covering will not sustain an pullback and it will have to be replace with delivery based buying. Minor purchases can be made at these levels. Overall, while the Markets attempt to find its bottom, highly stock specific and selective outlook is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331


Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Brief Maket Forecast for the Day - Wednesday, June 03, 2015

Tuesday, June 2, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, June 02, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                      June 02, 2015
Markets had a volatile but range bound session yesterday as it end the day on a absolutely flat note after oscillating in either direction. The Markets saw a quiet opening as expected and it formed its intraday low of 8405.40 in the early morning trade while trading briefly in the negative. Markets saw some strength as it perked up in the first half of the session and went on to form the day’s high of 8467.15 in the late morning trade. Markets struggled to go beyond this and traded the afternoon session in a ranged manner. It was in the second half that the Markets chose to consolidate and get cautioned ahead of RBI Credit policy. It came off from its highs and pared nearly all of its gains and also dipped into the negative territory. However, some recovery was seen and the Markets ended the day nearly unchanged at 8433.40, posting a nominal gain of 0.25 points or 0.001% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, JUNE 02, 2015
The Markets are expected today to open on a flat to mildly positive note and look at cues from the RBI Credit policy coming up later today.   The Markets have displayed both – strength and caution – ahead of RBI Credit Policy. After Friday’s up move, it showed strength by not correcting and at the same time, preferred to remain cautious ahead expectation of a rate cut. We will witness ranged trade in the initial session and after that, will see the Markets reacting to the RBI. Volatility will remain dominant today.

The levels of 8475 and 8550 will act as immediate resistance to the Markets. The supports will come in at 8405 and 8350 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 54.0343 and it remains neutral with no bullish or bearish divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY June futures have further added over 2.46 lakh or 1.56% in the Open Interest. This shows some positive built up for the Markets. In event of a slightest positive trigger, the Markets may attempt its move towards its 100-DMA.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have attempted to confirm a reversal after forming a higher bottom following the low it gave on May 7th.Having said this, it has managed to move past its 200-DMA while doing so and is now resisting at its 50-and 100-DMA. In order to confirm this reversal, the Markets will have to move past these levels. It would confirm the reversal – which is a potential reversal as of now – if it moves past these levels. Until this happens, it would continue to trade volatile in a broad range with the levels of 200-DMA acting as support.

All and all, the Markets will show obvious trend of remaining range bound in the initial trade and then reacting to RBI Credit Policy. So far as the Markets go, the 25 bps is what is discounted by the Markets. No rate cut will be little negative for the Markets and anything more than 25 bps – which is again not likely at all – will be a big positive trigger. It is advised to refrain from creating over exposure in the Markets and continue to adopt a cautious outlook until the Markets take a definite directional bias.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331


Monday, June 1, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, June 01, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                    June 01, 2015
The Markets had a very robust session on Friday as it ended  the day with decent gains amid one of the highest volumes recorded in recent past. The Markets saw a positive opening and it traded with modest gains in the morning trade. After trading with capped gains, the Markets saw some more strength coming in afternoon session as it added more to its morning gains. The Markets once again traded in sideways trajectory for the most part of the afternoon session and also pared some of its gains later. However, it once again perked up in the last hour and half of the trade. The Markets moved past its previous range and went on to form the day’s high of 8443.90. These levels were maintained and the Markets finally settled the day at 8433.65, posting a decent gain of 114.65 points or 1.38% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, JUNE 01, 2015
Today would remain a crucial session for the Markets. Expect the Markets to open on a flat note and trade in a range in the initial trade.  On one hand, the Markets have resisted to its 50-DMA at Close and there is 100-DMA ahead of that, and on the other hand, non-technical factors are likely to fuel the bullish bias of the Markets. The GDP Data of 7.5% and 7.3% sequentially and YOY has remain in line with the estimates and other factors such as expectation of rate cut and development in China where debt facilities were drastically reduced are likely to aid the upward bias of the Markets.

For today, the levels of 8438 and 8550 are immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports come in at 8370 and 8330 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 54.0504 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bullish while it trades above its signal line. On the Weekly Charts, the Weekly RSI is 50.9581 and this too is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Weekly MACD, however, continues to remain bearish trading below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY June futures have added over 28.77 lakh shares or massive 22.18% in Open Interest. This is a very clear and very significant indication that there has been huge buying in index futures which is certainly a positive indicator. The NIFTY PCR stands at 0.95.

While taking a look at pattern analysis, the Markets have once again attempted to confirm the reversal after the bottom that it formed on May7th. It has attempted to form a higher bottom after Friday’s up move and it would be critically important to see that the Markets move past its 50 and 100-DMA as well in order to convincingly confirm the bottom formation. However, in event of any untoward movement, the level of 200-DMA will continue to act as support. On the Weekly Chart, the Markets continue to trade above all of its moving averages.

All and all, the Markets have seen a good amount of buying from lower levels. It is advised to continue to make select purchases and the overall bias remains on the upside. However, vigilant protection of profits too is advised as the Markets are yet to move past the 50 and 100-DMA at Close and it is yet to react to RBI Credit Policy tomorrow. Due to all this volatility is likely to continue to remain ingrained in the Markets. Overall, cautious optimism is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331