Friday, May 29, 2015

Brief Market Forecast for the Day -- Friday, May 29, 2015

Due to technical reasons,we have note been able to publish full edition of Daily Market Trend Guide. However, brief market forecast has been reproduced herewith. Inconvenience caused is sincerely regretted.
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Brief Market Forecast for the Day -- Friday, May 29, 2015

Today's analysis again continues to remain on similar lines. The Markets may witness a modestly negative opening and therefore moving past is 200-DMA would again continue to remain of paramount important.
 
At  Close levels, the Markets have held on to the levels of 200-DMA and it is expected that these levels would continue to hold at support at Close. 
 
Volatility is expected to remain and the Markets are likely to continue to trade in a broad range. While maintaining liquidity, some selective purchases may be made. Overall, moderate exposures should be maintained.

 
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA


www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, May 28, 2015



MARKET REPORT                                                                            May 28, 2015

Though the Markets ended the day on a flat note, it had a very volatile session during the day after opening on a much lower note. The markets saw weaker than expected opening and after such opening, formed intraday low of 8277.95 in the early minutes of the trade. The Markets saw recovery from the lows of the day in the morning trade itself and attempt to moved past the levels of 200-DMA. It moved in a sideways trajectory after recovering most part of its losses for the remaining part of the session but the Markets also saw some range bound volatile movements. It came off from its previous close but recovered again. It maintained the levels a notch above its 200-DMA and finally ended the day at 8334.60, posting a flat close with minor loss of 4.75 points or 0.06% while continuing to form a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.



MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, MAY 28, 2015

Expect the Markets to open today on a flat to modestly positive note and trade in a caped range in the initial trade. The Markets have attempted to move past its 200-DMA levels yesterday after opening lower and today, it is very much likely to continue with this attempt and also attempt to regain some stability by trading modestly above 200-DMA. The behaviour of the Markets vis-à-vis the levels of 200-DMA will be crucial to watch out for.


The levels of 8375 and 8450 will act as immediate resistance for today whereas the levels of 8325 and 8250 will act as immediate supports.


The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 48.2710 and it continues to remain neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish while trading above its signal line.


On the Derivative front, the NIFTY May future have shed 21.49 lakh shares or 19.99% in Open Interest while the June futures have added 36.01 lakh shares or 54.85% in Open Interest. There has been net addition of 9 lakh shares in the OI. Overall, the NIFTY and market wide rollovers have been in line with its last 3 months average.


Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have been witnessing some short term consolidation with a bearish undertone after it attempted to pullback after forming recent lows. However, though it has so far managed to keep its head above 200-DMA after the pullback, the behaviour of the Markets vis-à-vis the levels of 200-DMA would be extremely important. It will have to keep its head above the 200-DMA levels if it has to attempt to continue with its reversal. Though the Markets have so far trade above this level, it will confirm the reversal only after it moves past its upper levels of broad trading range.


All and all, the Markets are still not completely out of the woods. The Markets are likely to pose a modestly positive opening but it will have to maintain levels above 200-DMA. Today being the expiry day, the rollovers would dominate the activity. Further, the other important triggers for the Markets would be the GDP data coming out tomorrow and the RBI Policy on June 3rd. With some amount of volatility likely overall cautious approach is advised for today.


Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in


+91-98250-16331




Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, May 27, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                     May 27, 2015
Though the Markets pared its losses in the final hour of the trade, it continued to end the day with a modest loss while taking support at its all important 200-DMA at Close levels.  Markets saw a flat opening and remained very briefly into the positive territory while forming its day’s high of 8378.90 in the very early minutes of the trade. However, after remaining very briefly in the positive, the Markets came off and traded in negative territory. It continued to trade with capped losses in the first half of the session but the second half saw some more weakness creeping in. The Markets went on to form the day’s low of 8320.05. However, it attempted to take support again at its 200-DMA and it saw some paring of losses from those levels. The Markets finally settled the day at 8339.35, posting a modest loss of 30.90 points or 0.37% while continuing to form a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, MAY 27, 2015
Today, we enter into penultimate day of expiry of current series. Along with this, this also remains a crucially important day for the Markets that can impact its trend in the immediate short term. We are likely to see negative opening today and there are chances that the Markets sees itself opening below its 200-DMA. If this happens, it would be very critically important for the Markets to move past this level again. Until this happens, we would continue to see some bearish undertone in the Markets.

For today, the levels of 8380 and 8450 would act as immediate resistance levels. The supports are expected at 8310 and 8230 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 48.5271 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD still continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY May futures have shed over 11.64 lakh shares or 9.77% in Open Interest whereas June series have added over 20.99 lakhs shares or 47.02% in Open Interest. Overall, on net basis, NIFTY has added over 9.50 lakhs shares in Open Interest. This signifies rollovers of short positions in the Markets. NIFTY PCR stands at 0.99 as against 1.03.

Coming back to pattern analysis, the Markets gave a technical pullback after posting its recent lows on May 7th. During this pullback, the Markets managed to move past its 200-DMA which it broke on the downside earlier. However, the Markets are not able to confirm this reversal as at least as of today, it has failed to post any higher bottom after recent lows. Today as well, the opening might see the Markets below 200-DMA and therefore, it would be of paramount importance for the Markets to move past this 200-DMA levels again. Until this happens we would continue to witness bearish undertone in the Markets.

All and all, non-technical factors such as currency weakness, weak earnings from key stocks, etc., will continue to weigh on the Markets as well. However, the Markets still are under the process of confirming its reversal and as of now, the bottom of May 7th holds valid and crucially important. Absence of delivery based buying in the Index components is also weighing in the Markets. Given this scenario, we would reiterate to remain extremely light on the exposure and maintain adequate liquidity until the directional bias is established.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, May 26, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                            May 26, 2015
Markets turned bit corrective today as it opened negative and grew weaker in the second half to end the day with losses. The Markets saw a negative opening on expected lines and traded within a narrow range with capped losses. It spent the morning trade in a sideways manner on low volumes as many major Markets like UK, US and Hong Kong remained shut which led to a lesser participation. However, it was in the second half that the Markets saw some weakness intensifying and it grew weaker. It went on to form the day’s low of 8364.15 towards the end of the session. While no major recovery was seen at lower levels, it finally ended the day at 8370.25, posting a net loss of 88.70 points or 1.05% while forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, MAY 26, 2015
After the Markets remaining in corrective mode yesterday, we can expect a quiet opening in the Markets today. The Markets are likely to open on a flat to mildly positive note and look for directions. They are likely to continue to remain in a broad trading range with the levels of 200-DMA acting as support and the levels of 50-DMA acting as resistance in the immediate short term.

Today, the levels of 8420 and 8465 will act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports come in at 8320 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 50.1338 and it remains neutral as it does not show any bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD remains bullish while trading above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY May futures shed over 9.50 lakh shares or 7.39% in Open Interest while June NIFTY Futures added over 6.81 lakh shares or 18.01% in Open Interest showing a net of decline in Open Interest. However, modest rollovers have begun and they are expected to pick up as well.  The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.03.

Going by pattern analysis, the Markets currently trade in a broad range with the levels of 200-DMA expected to act as support and the levels of 50 and 100-DMA posing resistance on the upside. However, given the expiry week, the Markets are likely to continue to remain in a broad trading range. Also, the Markets will have to see a conviction based up move with more amount of delivery buying taking place if it has to move past the upper levels of the trading range. Broadly speaking, the Markets have attempted to find a bottom after posting lows as on May 7th and has attempted a pullback since then. However, it needs to form a higher bottom anytime now and move past the remaining two DMAs in order to confirm the reversal.

All and all, until the Markets moves past its 50 and 100-DMA, it would continue to witness such intermittent bouts of profit taking. Though 200-DMA is all likely to act as major support in case of any downside, the Markets may continue to remain volatile and trade in a broad range. It is advised to continue to remain light on exposure while maintaining a stock specific outlook in the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Monday, May 25, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, May 25, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                May 25, 2015
The Markets continued with its up move on Friday as well and ended the day with modest gains but at the same time, it did so in a bit reluctant manner. The Markets saw a quiet and positive opening on expected lines and in the first half of the session it remained in upward rising channel and remained in positive territory. After stable opening, the morning trade saw some strength in the Markets and it kept on making fresh gradual highs while demonstrating some strength.  By afternoon trade, the Markets saw some continuing stability while it formed the day’s high of 8489.55. However, the second half of the trade saw some paring of gains. Markets came off from its intraday highs and pared nearly half of its gains. Though it did not dip into the negative, it finally ended the day at 8458.95, posting a modest gain of 37.95 points or 0.45% while continuing to form a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, MAY 25, 2015
We can expect a muted start to the Markets today. The Markets may open on a very quiet note and might continue to trade in a given range while showing little negative bias. Though all cues remain positive some amount of minor weakness may be seen because of some stock specific pressure that we might see today. Today, we also enter into expiry week and therefore we can expect bulk of the activities being dominated with rollover centric actions.

For today, the levels of 8470 and 8550 will act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports would come in at 8380 and 8320 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 54.9866 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. Daily MACD remains bullish as it trades above its signal line. On the Weekly Chart, Weekly RSI is 51.6538 and it remains neutral showing no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. Weekly MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY May futures have shed over 2.79 lakh shares or 2.12% in Open Interest. NIFTY June Futures have added over 12.70 lakh shares or 50.3.5% in the OI. NIFTY PCR stands at 1.11.

Looking at pattern analysis, the Markets have resisted to its 50-DMA at Close levels and this level is likely to continue to act as resistance in the immediate short term followed by the 100-DMA. On the Daily Chart, there is slight structural weakness as the 50-DMA has cut 100-DMA from above couple of sessions back and this may infuse some very short term weakness for the Markets. Having said this, in event of any weakness, the Markets may not show any significant downside but may continue to trade in a broad trading range with the levels of 200-DMA acting as major support. On the Weekly Charts, all DMAs remain positive and the Markets continue to trade above all of its DMAs.

All and all, keeping this in view, the Markets may not still completely be out of woods. It has continued to face shortage of delivery based buying. At the same time the lead indicators and other factors do not present any significantly negative cues as well. While remaining dominated with rollover centric activities in the coming days, it would continue to show some stock specific out performance. Overall, with no major downsides expected, ranged consolidation is likely to continue in the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331