Friday, May 22, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, May 22, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                 May 22,2015
The Markets consolidated in yesterday session as it swung on either side but ended on absolutely flat note after recovering from its lows. The Markets saw near –flat opening but soon formed its intraday high of 8446.35 in the very early minutes of the trade. However, the Markets soon came off from its highs and saw some rapid paring of gains and formed the day’s low of 8382.50 in the late morning trade, coming off nearly 65-odd points from the high point of the day. The Markets attempted to find its bottom again as it saw some recovery coming in and it managed to recover all of its gains and also went into positive territory by afternoon session. No major movement was seen and the Markets spent rest of the session heading nowhere. It finally ended the day at 8421, posting a very minor loss of 2.25 points or 0.03% while forming a near parallel bar on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, MAY 22, 2015
Today’s analysis continues to remain more or less on similar lines. Expect the Markets to open on a flat to mildly negative note and look for directions. Though quiet opening is expected, the Markets will continue to trade in a capped range and some volatility like yesterday cannot be ruled out. The Markets are consolidating going near to its 50-DMA and 
though such consolidations are healthy, it would be crucial for the Markets to continue with their up move especially given the expiry in the next week.

For today, the levels of 8475 and 8540 will act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports come in at 8315 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 53.1863 and it remains neutral showing no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish trading above its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY May futures have shed over 4.39 lakh shares or 3.23% in Open Interest. Though we can attribute this to short covering, merely attributing this singularly to short covering will not be proper as some amount of rollovers too have begun.

Coming to pattern analysis, the reading remains similar to that of yesterday. After moving past the levels of 200-DMA,  the Markets are showing sideways consolidation and in the process, the two immediate resistance for it are its 50 and 100-DMA respectively. Though such consolidation is healthy, it would now be crucial for the Markets to move past these levels. Until this happens ranged consolidation is expected to continue with the levels of 200-DMA expected to act as support.

All and all, keeping the overall analysis on the similar lines that of yesterday, the Markets may see ranged movement post negative opening and intermittent bouts of weakness cannot be ruled out. Some purchase may be made as sector specific  out performance would be seen but overall, maintenance of caution at higher levels is advised.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331


Thursday, May 21, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, May 21, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                   May 21, 2015
Markets ended yet another day with gains today but did so with modest gains as it spent the day in a narrow and capped range. The Markets saw positive opening on expected lines and after a decently positive opening, it gained some further strength to form the day’s high of 8440.35. The Markets tested these levels twice in the morning trade but did not witness a significant breakout from here. The second half of the session saw some minor paring of gains as the Markets came off from its day’s high. Again no sharp movement on either side was seen and the Markets ended up spending the rest of the session in a narrow and capped range in sideways trajectory. It finally ended the day at 8423.25, posting a modest gain of 57.60 points or 0.69% while continuing to form a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, MAY 21, 2015
Today’s session is likely to remain on similar lines and we can once again expect a quiet to modestly positive opening for the Markets. The Markets are likely to approach its 50-DMA levels and therefore it would be again prone to some consolidation from higher levels. With overall bias on the upside some amount of volatility too is expected to remain in the Markets.

For today, the levels of 8487 and 8535 will act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports would come in at 8310 levels which is the 200-DMA of the Markets.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 53.3037 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY May futures have shed 19,600 shares or 0.14% in Open Interest. This is a very negligible figure and one can draw inference that OI has remained practically unchanged and therefore no major short covering has happened.

Taking a cue from pattern analysis, as mentioned in our previous editions of Daily Market Trend Guide, the Markets have attempted a reversal after forming its potential bottom on March 7th and have in the process managed to move past its 200-DMA. In today’s session and in the sessions to come, it would be important for the Markets to remain above this 200-DMA level. Some amount of consolidation can be expected at higher levels but any breach below the 200-DMA will bring in some short term weakness in the markets.

Overall, the going has been good for the Markets in the past sessions but the amount of delivery based buying and the conviction that the Markets would otherwise require is missing and this causes a little cause of concern and opens up some chances of consolidation once again at higher levels. Keeping this in mind, very moderate stock specific purchases may be made but cautiously vigilant approach is advised at higher levels.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, May 20, 2015



MARKET REPORT                                                                                        May 20, 2015

We had mentioned in our yesterday’s edition of Daily Market Trend Guide that we might continue to witness intermittent profit taking bouts. Markets yesterday ended the day with minor losses as it saw bout of profit taking while coming off from its day’s high. The Markets saw a modestly negative opening and it formed its intraday low of 8335 in the early minutes of the trade. After this, the Markets transformed themselves into rising channel and slowly recovered all of its losses. It continued to display strength as it added to the gains and went on to form the day’s high of 8427.80 in the afternoon trade. However, suddenly the Markets saw a profit taking bout and it came off from its highs and even dipped further into the negative territory. It showed some recovery but finally ended the day at 8365.65 with minor loss of 8 points or 0.10% while still continuing to form a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.



MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, MAY 20, 2015

Today, once again, we can expect a day of consolidation for the Markets. The Markets are expected to open on a flat to modestly positive note and trade stable in the initial trade. However, we can expect the Markets to consolidate at higher levels and continue to remain in a broad trading range with the levels of yesterday’s high acting as immediate resistance.


For today, the levels of 8430 and 8500 are immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports come in at 8335 and 8270 levels.


The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 50.7186 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it trades above its signal line.


On the derivative front, NIFTY May futures have shed 21,050 shares or 0.15% in Open Interest. This OI figures is nominal enough to be called unchanged and some amount of FII buying has been witnessed yesterday as well.


Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets are once again consolidating after it moved past the levels of 200-DMA. In normal course of business, this level of 200-DMA is likely to act as support in event of any consolidation and some downside, if any. The Markets are otherwise expected to slowly approach its 100-DMA levels of 8544 levels in due course of time if it successfully continues it’s up move and if it confirms the bottom that it formed on 7th of May. Coming sessions would be critical to see if the Markets continues with its up move and if at all it consolidates, it holds on to its support of 200-DMA or not.


All and all, we can approach the Markets with positive outlook with initially good opening expected. However, volatility will remain at higher levels and just like yesterday, intermittent bouts cannot be ruled out. Delivery based buying has emerged but it has remained very sector specific yesterday. It needs to percolate to broader base as well to lay good foundation for potential and successful bottom formation.


Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in


+91-98250-16331




Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, May 19, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                       May 19, 2015
Markets had a buoyant session yesterday especially in the second half of the session as it moved past its 200-DMA and ended the day with decent gain. The Markets saw a positive opening on expected lines and remained in a narrow range with capped gains in the first half of the session while it continued to resist to its 200-DMA. As mentioned, the second half of the session some more strength coming in as the Markets witnessed quite decisive and secular up move. It went on to form the day’s high of 8384.60 and maintained those gains until the end. It finally settled the day at 8373.65, posting a decent gain of 111.30 points or 1.35% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Chart.


MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, MAY 19, 2015
We can once again expect the Markets to consolidate after yesterday’s gains and it would be crucially important for the Markets to maintain levels above of 200-DMA in today’s trade. Today, we can expect a flat to modestly negative opening and we can see some ranged consolidation in the first half with the levels of 200-DMA expected to act as support in case of any weakness. There has been dearth of broad delivery based buying and this is something that will keep the Markets under some check.

For today, the levels of 8410 and 8465 will act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports will come in at 8305, near its 200-DMA.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 51.0833 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days. This is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD is bullish while it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY May futures have shed over 3.85 lakh shares or 2.75% in Open Interest. This once again indicates short covering and attributes yesterday’s rise more to short covering than fresh buying.

While looking at pattern analysis, the Markets yesterday resisted to its 200-DMA in the first half of the session but finally managed to move past and close above it. It would be now crucially important for the Markets to maintain itself above 200-DMA. This level is now expected to act as support in event of any immediate short term weakness. Any breach below this will bring the Markets back into the broad trading range that it has been trading in.

All and all, the lead indicators and over all structure of the Charts point towards positive bias with some amount of short term consolidation that might happen. However, Markets will also need delivery based buying to make a sustainable up move apart from just short covering that it is witnessing. Intermittent volatile bouts cannot be ruled out. Overall, while maintaining modest exposure, positive caution is advised.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331