Friday, April 17, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, April 17, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                 April 17, 2015
The Markets continued to see corrective activity yesterday as well and ended the second day with losses though it did recover from the low point of the day and the levels of 50-DMA did held out as support at close levels. The Markets saw a flat opening and then remained in falling trajectory for the most part of the day while it kept making fresh gradual lows. In the afternoon trade, the Markets went on to form the day’s low of 8645.65. However, the second half of the session saw the Markets attempting some recovery. The Markets did in fact recovered bulk of its day’s losses but the last half hour of trade saw some pressure being exerted on the Markets again. However, the Markets ended the day at 8706.70 registering significant recovery but with net losses of 43.50 points or 0.50% while continuing to form lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, APRIL 17, 2015
Today’s analysis remains more or less on similar lines. We can expect the Markets to open on a flat and quiet note and look for directions. Though we can expect a range bound trade in the morning, the behaviour of the Markets vis-à-vis the levels of 50-DMA which is 8708 today would be very crucial. It would be important for the Markets to maintain levels above this so as to avoid any further weakness from creeping in.

The levels of 8760 and 8815 will act as immediate resistance on the Charts. The supports come in at 8640 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 52.3584 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish trading above its signal line.
On the derivative front, NIFTY April Futures have shed 52,600 shares or nominal 0.27% in Open Interest. This remains a negligible figure and it appears that significant amount of shorts still continue to exist in the system.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have corrected for the second day after seven days of gains of over 400-odd points. From technical point of view, this correction is healthy and the Markets have so far continue to remain above its critical supports. The Markets have held on to its 50-DMA as support at Close levels. The Markets have another important pattern support at 8640 levels. Even if the Markets continue to consolidate for some more time, there is no structural breach of any major levels as yet. Overall, even some consolidation goes on or some minor downside is seen, it would be healthy correction while keeping the original trend intact.

Overall, while keeping the analysis on more or less the same lines, we continue to reiterate to avoid shorts in the Markets as short traps at lower levels can occur as significant amount of short positions are seen in the Markets. Like yesterday, while keeping the purchases limited adequate liquidity should be maintaining while adopting cautious optimism in the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Thursday, April 16, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, April 16, 2015



MARKET REPORT                                                                                        April 16, 2015

The Markets snapped its 7-day gaining streak as it saw a sharp but otherwise healthy correction in the last hour of the trade wherein it ended the day with losses. The Markets saw a quiet opening but it traded with modest losses all throughout the session. The range remained extremely narrow and capped and the Markets never really attempted any upside movement at all. It opened negative and traded with modest losses for the most part of the day. In the later part of the afternoon trade, it did attempt to move up wherein it went into green for a very brief time while forming the day’s high of 8844.80. Just when it seemed that it will consolidate, it saw a very sharp downside. It was more of a secular basket selling as the Markets lost ground very rapidly. It lost over 100-odd points from the high point of the day while forming the day’s low of 8722.40. It finally ended the day at 8750.20, posting a net loss of 83.80 points or 0.95% while forming a similar top but lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.




MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, APRIL 16, 2015

Expect the Markets to open on a flat to modestly positive note and look for directions. The Markets snapped its 7-day gaining streak yesterday  but has closed above its 50-DMA and as of now this level has held out as support. Today as well, the levels of 50-DMA would be crucial to watch out for and the Markets are likely to hover around those levels. It would be important for the Markets to remain above this level or at least its filters to avoid any further weakness.


For today, the levels of 8795 and 8850 will act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports would come in at 8710 and 8675 levels.


The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 55.4478 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergences or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.


On the derivative front, NIFTY April futures have added over 6.30 lakh shares or 3.36% in Open Interest. This very clearly suggests addition of sizable quantity of short positions in the Markets. This is a crucially positive figure as the buying from lower levels as well as short covering may prevent the Markets from further weakness.


Coming to pattern analysis, post lows of 27th March, the Markets had gained over 400-points in seven straight sessions. The correction that we saw yesterday can prove to be healthy for the Markets. Even if the Markets consolidate in a range bound manner from these levels, it would be, in fact, healthy for the Markets in the immediate short term. The levels of 50-DMA would be important level to watch out for along with its filter as a important support at Close levels.


Overall, the Markets may see buying from lower levels. If not, then at least 50-DMA levels, it can also see some amount of short covering in the Markets. Given this scenario, it is advised to refrain from creating any short positions in the Markets. Purchases may be done but should be kept very limited while maintaining adequate liquidity in the Markets.


Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in


+91-98250-16331






Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Brief Market Forecast for the Day -- Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Monday, April 13, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, April 13, 2015

BRIEF MARKET FORECAST FOR THE DAY

Expect the Markets to open on a flat note again and trade in a capped range in the initial trade. Though the Markets remain in an over all bullish bode and while the trend remains intact, some amount of consolidation in the immediate short term cannot be ruled out. The levels of 8795 and 8845 are likely to act as immediate resistance.

Overall, as mentioned, with some amount of ranged movement and consolidation expected to continue, some amount of volatility would remain ingrained in the Markets. While maintaining vigil on existing positions, very selective purchases may be made. Positive caution is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA


www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331