Friday, April 10, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, April 10, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                              April 10, 2015
Markets continued to surge ahead and ended with gains for the fifth day in a row though it continued to resist to its 50-DMA for the most part of the session. The Markets saw a modestly positive opening on the expected lines but soon dipped into the red to form the day’s low of 8682.45 in the morning trade. However, it managed to crawl back into the green wherein it traded in positive territory until afternoon, though in a very capped and narrow range. The Markets pared those gain trade flat. However, in the late afternoon trade, the Markets saw itself surging on the upside again and this time, it went on to move past its 50-DMA levels which it had been resisting for the most part of the session. It went on to form the day’s high of 8785.50. In the process, these levels were sustained and the Markets finally settled the day at 8778.30, posting a net gain of 63.90 points or 0.73% while continuing to form higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, APRIL 10, 2015
We can expect a flat to quiet opening once again today and the Markets are generally likely to trade with a positive bias. Though it has moved past the levels of 50-DMA, some amount of consolidation at higher levels still cannot be ruled out with the levels of 50-DMA acting as support. Even in case of any consolidation, the overall bias of the Markets would continue to remain on the upside.

The levels of 8820 and 8865 would act as resistance. The levels of 8720 and 8675 would act as immediate supports for the Markets.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 59.0135 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD remains bullish trading above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY APRIL Futures have shed 96,500 shares or 0.50% in Open Interest. This remains a negligible figure and one can conclude that no major short covering was seen from lower levels yesterday.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have managed to move past the level of 50-DMA and in event of any consolidation, this level is likely to act as support. Barring possibilities some consolidation from higher levels, the overall bias of the Markets certainly remains on the upside. The Markets encounters some minor pattern resistances in between, is likely to consolidate and  likely to move up again. As mentioned often in our previous editions, consolidation would be required and in fact, healthy for the Markets.

Overall, the day remains crucial as the Markets approaches minor pattern resistances. With the quantum of the pullback that we have seen from March 27th lows, even if the Markets consolidates, it would display strength by doing so and would be healthy in the immediate short term. Some amount of volatility is likely to remain ingrained in the Markets. While continuing to make select purchases, cautious outlook is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA


www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331


Thursday, April 9, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, April 09, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                              April 09, 2015
While continuing to trade on analysed lines, the Markets ended the day on a positive note after modestly positive opening but at the same time, the levels of 50-DMA continued to pose resistance to the Markets for the entire day as well. After seeing a modestly positive opening, the Markets traded in a narrow range with capped gains and at one point of time pared them as well but continued to stay in positive territory. The afternoon trade once again saw some strength returning as it formed the day’s high of 8730.50 in the afternoon trade. However, the Markets did not saw any runaway rally as it continued to trade in a capped range. It finally ended the day at 8714.40, posting a modest gain of 54.10 points or 0.62% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, APRIL 09, 2015
Markets have continued to display good amount of strength and today as well, we can expect it to open on a fairly positive note. The Markets, as of now, still trade below its 50-DMA and today’s opening is likely to see the Markets open above its 50-DMA. It would be important for the Markets to maintain levels above this and capitalize on possible positive opening. The behaviour of the Markets vis-à-vis the levels of 50-DMA would be crucial to watch out for.

The levels of 8745 and 8780 would act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports would come in at 8680 and 8640 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 55.5613 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish trading above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the  NIFTY APRIL Futures have added over 6.15 lakh shares or 3.32% in Open Interest. This is certainly a bullish piece of figure especially after shedding of Open Interest that was observed since last couple of sessions.

Coming to pattern analysis, today’s opening is likely to take the Markets above 50-DMA levels. It would be imperative for the Markets to maintain levels above 50-DMA. In event of any consolidation at higher levels, this level would act as support. However, given the rise of over 450-odd points from lows of March 27th, even if the Markets consolidate from higher levels, it would be healthy in the immediate short term.

Overall, the directional bias of the Markets continues to remain bullish. It is likely to see positive opening and at the same time, it is also likely to consolidate from higher levels. This is likely to keep some amount of volatility ingrained in the Markets. Though some amount of caution is required, selective purchases may certainly be made. Cautiously positive outlook is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331


Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, April 08, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                       April 08, 2015
Markets had a terribly volatile session more so because of technical reason while it also reacted to RBI Credit Policy Review though it more or less remained a non event. The Markets saw positive opening on expected lines and formed its intraday high of 8693.60 in the early minutes of the trade. Thereafter, until the RBI came out with its expected announcements wherein it kept its key rates unchanged, the Markets had pared all of its morning gains to trade flat. It dipped into the negative while the announcements were made but recovered to trade back in the green. However, the second half of the session saw some more pressure being exerted on to the Markets as the Markets once again pared its recovery rapidly. It went on to form the day’s low of 8586.85 losing over 105-odd points from high point of the day. The last hour and half once again saw volatile recovery taking place as the Markets recouped all of its losses to trade back into the green. It finally ended the day at 8660.30, posting a flat close with negligible gain of 0.40 points or 0.01%.


MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, APRIL 08, 2015 B

The Markets are likely to trade more or less on similar grounds like that of yesterday. We can expect a quiet to modestly positive opening today and the Markets are likely to approach its 50-DMA, which is 8720. This level is important to watch out for near term as the Markets are likely to  consolidate around these levels after successfully attempting a pullback from lower levels.

The levels of 8720 and 8745 would act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports exist at 8640 and 8570 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 52.4098 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. Also, the RSI has formed a fresh 14-period high while NIFTY has not yet and this is Bullish Divergence. The Daily MACD is bullish while it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY APRIL Futures have 47,975 shares or 0.25% in Open Interest. This is negligible as compared to OI shedding that we witnessed in the prior sessions.

Coming to pattern analysis, as mentioned in our yesterday’s edition of Daily Market Trend Guide, the Markets have attempted a pullback from its lows posted on March 27th. However, post this pullback, it is likely that the Markets consolidate a bit around these higher levels before it inches upward again. Such amount of consolidation would be healthy for the Markets and any rise after that would confirm the reversal.

All and all, the Markets still trades below its 50-DMA and therefore, this level would be important level to watch out for in the immediate term. There are fair amount of chances that the Markets see a healthy consolidation at higher levels. This can be in a bit wide trading range but this would keep the overall pullback healthy and confirm the attempted reversal for the Markets. Vigilant protection of positions is advised at higher levels.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, April 07, 2015



MARKET REPORT                                                                                        April 07, 2015

The Markets traded precisely on the analysed lines as it opened quiet, traded directionless in the first half of the session but ended the day on a buoyant note. The Markets saw a quiet opening and post such openings traded in a very capped and narrow 20-odd point range until afternoon while slipping in and out of the positive territory. It formed its day’s low of 8573.75. The seconde half of the session, Markets once again saw sustained strength returning. It crawled back into the positive territory and then kept gradually forming new intraday highs. It went on to form the  day’s high of 8667.55 and while sustaining these levels, it finally ended the day at 8659.90, posting a net gain of 73.65 points or 0.86% while continuing to form a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF NIFTY AND MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, APRIL 07, 2015


Today remains a crucial day for the Markets. Expect the Markets to open on a modestly positive note and look for directions with a mild upward bias. The expected positive opening would see the Markets opening near its 50-DMA levels and therefore it would be important to see the behaviour of the Markets vis-à-vis this level. Further Markets would also react to the RBI Policy review slated to come in later today.


The levels of 8720 and 8745 would act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports come in at 8640 and 8570 levels.


The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 52.3867 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. Further, the RSI has set a fresh 14-period high while the NIFTY has not yet and this is Bullish Divergence. As expected and mentioned in our yesterday’s edition, the Daily MACD has reported a positive crossover. It his now bullish trading above its signal line.


On the derivative front, the NIFTY April futures have further shed over 3.70 lakh shares or 1.95% in Open Interest.


Returning to pattern analysis, the Markets moved past one of its important pattern resistance of 8640. With today’s mildly positive opening expected, it would open near its 50-DMA levels. There is great likelihood that the Markets consolidate around these levels. The consolidation would in fact make the Markets healthier and the possibility of the Markets consolidating rather than continuing to move up increases as it has been shedding Open Interest in the previous sessions.


All and all, the Markets would see a modestly positive to quiet opening. It is likely to trade in a given range before it reacts to the RBI Policy review. The reaction would be more to the guidance issued as majority of the participants expects a status quo on the rate scenario. With the likelihood of the Markets consolidating on the higher levels, it is advised to keep booking profits on every rise now while keeping the fresh purchases limited and selective.


Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in


+91-98250-16331