Friday, March 20, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide - Friday, March 20, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                         March 20, 2015
After an initial cheer, the Markets completely failed to capitalize on the opening gains and pared more than 150-odd points from the high point of the day to end the day with a loss. Following news flow of FED not hiking interest rates in April, the Markets saw a decently positive opening on expected lines it strengthened further as it formed the day’s high of 8788.20. However, until afternoon, the Markets then slowly pared almost half of its gains. In the last hour and half of trade, the Markets saw very sudden paring of gains and it lost all of its gains to trade in negative. It went on to form the day’s low of 8614.65 coming off more than 150-odd points from the high point of the day. It finally ended the day at 8634.65, posting a net loss of 51.25 points or 0.59% while forming a higher top but lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 20, 2015
Expect the Markets to see a quiet and flat opening today. The Markets have tested its support zone of 8620-8660 levels and it would be critically important to see the behavior of the Markets vis-à-vis these levels. It would be extremely crucial to see that the Markets do not breach these levels and its filter. If it does so, we could see some more minor weakness creeping in to the Markets. There is likelihood that the Markets will move back above the 8640-60 levels and remain in a ranged consolidation.

The levels of 8695 and 8740 will act as resistance for the Markets. The levels of 8620 and 8575 will act as immediate supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 43.6483 and it continues to remain neutral while showing no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD remains bearish trading below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY March futures have shed over 2.86 shares in Open Interest. This singular figure, with the expiry week beginning from Monday will be of little help. The NIFTY PCR stands at 0.87 as against 0.89. At this juncture, we would like to point out one important thing. Some suspicious and invisible activities are being observed in the Markets. In all of the last three session, both FIIs and DIIs have remained net buyers to a respectable extent in the range of 1200-1500 crores. There is virtually no data available to show distinctly who the sellers are who have been selling of in the Markets in a very predictable and similar fashion.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have therefore tested its support zone of 8620-8660 levels once gain. As mentioned earlier, it would be crucially important for the Markets to not to breach this levels and its filter in order to avoid some more weakness. If it manages to stay above 8640-8660 range, it would continue to remain in ranged consolidation.

Overall, with some artificial activities observed in last three trading sessions, there are chances that the Markets may slightly disobey and disregard technicals. However, with all external news flow intact, there are chances that the Markets may not see lenient correction and continue to remain in a range bound consolidation. However, while avoiding significant fresh exposure in the Markets, cautious outlook is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA


www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, March 19, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                    March 19, 2015
Markets ended with a modest loss yesterday as caution grew ahead of FOMC meet outcome. The Markets saw a absolutely flat and quiet note and traded in a capped range with minor losses. After range bound movement in the morning, the Markets attempted to recover from its modest morning losses as it traded flat and in positive territory for a very brief period. It traded absolutely flat in the afternoon trade as caution overweighed the overall sentiments. In the second half of the Markets saw some weakness coming in as it gradually lost some more ground. It went on to form the day’s low of 8664. Some minor recovery was seen but the Markets finally settled the day at 8685.90, posting a modest loss of 37.40 points or 0.43% while continuing to form a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 19, 2015
The Markets are to positively react to the FOMC announcements coming in wherein the rate hike in immediate future, i.e. April seems to be unlikely. Reacting to this, Markets are likely to see a decently positive opening. With such decently positive opening, the support zone of 8620-8660 would continue to remain valid. However, it would be important to see if the Markets maintains these gains and capitalizes on it later.

The levels of 8850 and 8920 would act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports would come in at 8620 and 8570 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 46.3906 and it continues to remain neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bearish trading below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY March futures have shed further over 7.43 lakh shares or 3.08% in Open Interest. This signifies some more unwinding of positions. The NIFTY PCR stands at 0.89 as against 0.91 a day earlier.

Coming to pattern analysis, the decently positive opening will keep the support zone of 8620-8660 valid as of now. Also, this will keep the Markets trading comfortably above all of its three moving averages. However, this will also continue to keep the Markets in the overall broad range of consolidation that it has been trading in. In order to continue with its up move, it will have to move past the levels of 8925 with good amount of participation and volumes in order to keep the original trend intact. Currently, the intermediate trend of the Markets remains that of consolidation.

Overall, Markets are all likely to see the positive and nearly gap up opening today. At the same time, it would be necessary for the Markets to maintain those gains and capitalize on it as well. Though this would still keep the Markets in the overall consolidation zone, selective purchases may be made. While keeping a vigilant eye on profits, positive outlook is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331


Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, March 18, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                       March 18, 2015
Volatility continued to persist in the Markets as the Markets saw swings on either side before ending the day with decent gains on back of sharp short covering in the last hour of the trade. The Markets saw a modestly positive opening and it saw some more strength in the late morning trade as the Markets formed its intraday high of 8742.55. It flattened its trajectory for a brief period and the afternoon trade saw a steady paring of morning gains. At one point of time the Markets pared all of its gains to trade absolutely while forming the day’s low of 8630.80 coming off nearly 100-odd points from high point of the day. However, the last hour of the trade saw equally sharp short covering from lower levels. The Markets saw a near parabolic rise and it recouped most of its afternoon losses. It finally ended the day at 8723.30, posting a net gain of  90.15 points or 1.04% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 18, 2015
Expect the Markets to open on a modestly positive note and look for directions. The support zone of 8620-8660 has held out as good support levels for the Markets and this would continue to be important support zone for the Markets in intermediate short term as well. It would be important to see the intraday trajectory that the Markets forms post opening which would dominate the trend for the day.

The levels of 8790 and 8845 would act as resistance for the Markets. The supports come in at 8630 and 8600 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 48.4533 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish trading below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY March futures have shed over 8.54 lakh shares or 3.42% in Open Interest. Though this very distinctly shows short covering from lower levels, and it can also be interpreted as validating the support zone as well. NIFTY PCR stands at 0.91.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have managed to hang on above the support zone of 8620-8660 and its filter. This support zone would continue to remain an important support zone as any breach below this level and its filter will see the Markets facing some more weakness in the immediate short term. So long as the Markets continue to remain above this zone, it would continue to see consolidation and would keep its overall trend intact.

All and all, though the Markets have managed to remain above its important support levels, it is not completely out of the woods as yet. It needs to move past the levels of 8920 and remain above that to resume its up move. Until that happens it would continue to remain in a very broad trading range and consolidation zone. While continuing to keep overall exposure at modest levels, selective approach is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, March 16, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide                                                        Monday, 16 March 2015
MARKET REPORT            March 13  2015
As expected by the most, the Market  in previous trading session on Friday 13th March opened on a positive and firm note.  The Market  gained 73 points and went on to register intraday high of 8849.75 in the first hour of trading.
This  intraday high, which was achieved early in the day, was the level,  which fell within the expected and foretold  strong resistance range.  And immediately registering this intraday high, the market started encountering  strong resistance and heavy selling.
The bout of profit booking and selling was  much sharper than expected and the market never recovered from  this for the rest of the trading session and finally closed  at 8647 with damage of 128 points on Nifty.

MARKET TREND FOR  FRIDAY, 16 March 2015
In the  Friday March 13 edition of Daily Market Trend Guide, it was mentioned that  Important resistance exists at 8792 ( 20 Day EMA) and  8871  ( Pattern )  and intraday, with supports at the 50 Day Simple and Exponential Averages ( at Close levels ) , which are 8658 and 8677 range.  .

Likewise, the market in spite of all positive clues, failed to move beyond  8849.75 intraday  and encountered heavy selling pressure, but the all important expected  support of 8644 ( Pattern ) was not breached . The intraday low was 8631, which was not much below the expected range of 8658 – 8677.

The resistance was expected as stated, but the selling bout was much sharper then expected . What was expected in a few trading day, was witnessed in a day, and the market  which saw heavy volatility of 218 points Nifty, gave a tall intraday bar on Daily High Low charts of Nifty touch both resistances and supports in a day.

Pattern Analysis indicate that for today and rest of the week, the  range of 8644 ( Pattern ) and 8665 (  50 Day Simple Moving Average) as of today, has become very decisive range.

On Candle charts, the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal.  The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle's real body. The MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line.The MACD crossed below its signal line 4 trading days ago. The RSI has just reached its lowest value in the last 14 periods.  This is bearish and its is a Failure Swing.

This technical analysis   indicates that the markets are   still not out of woods. Expect  bouts of selling at every rise. 

Today markets are  expected to open on a flat to weak note. 
Today,  If the market opens above this range and manages to hang on above this range,  this range will act as important support levels for the day. On down side, if the Markets breach these levels,  it should find support at  8560 – 8535 range as indicated by Pattern Analysis.
Until the markets move above these decisive and all important  range, weakness is expected and this is applicable today and for  the rest of the week.   


Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331