Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, March 04, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                           March 04, 2015
Markets traded on expected lines as it continued to scale fresh highs and also showed some signs of consolidation initially while it ended the day with modest gains. The Markets saw a modestly negative opening but formed its intraday low of 8925.55 in the early minutes of the trade. Though the Markets crawled back into the greed after initial weakness, the morning trade saw the Markets remaining in very much capped range with no directional bias it kept coming in and out of green. The afternoon trade saw the Markets crawling back into the positive territory and this time, it was followed by fresh up move. The Markets kept forming gradual highs and went on to post fresh lifetime high of 9008.40. These levels were maintained and the Markets finally ended the day at 8996.25, posting a modest gain of 39.50 points or 0.44% while continuing to form a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 04, 2015
The Markets are expected to take a breather after touching fresh lifetime highs and psychologically important 9000-mark and are expected to consolidate once again. We can expect a quiet to mildly negative opening; however, some amount of volatility and intermittent bouts on either side cannot be ruled out. The Markets continues to remain within its upward channel.

The levels of 9025 and 9060 would act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports exist much lower at 8830 and 8750 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 65.6048 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is Bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD remains bullish trading above its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY March futures have added another over 12.30 lakh shares or 4.63% in Open Interest. This signifies continuation of creation of fresh longs in the system which is a positive indicator for the immediate short term showing the current trend intact.

Coming to pattern analysis, as we have often mentioned in our previous editions of Daily Market Trend Guide, the Markets may continue to post fresh lifetime highs but at the same time, it will NOT see any break out unless it very significantly breaches the current rising trend line. This would keep the Markets prone to consolidation and profit taking bouts at higher levels.

All and all, we continue to keep the analysis for today on similar lines. With the Markets continuing to remain within the upward channel below the rising trend line, it is yet to achieve a fresh break out. Given this fact that it is vulnerable to profit taking bouts from higher levels, fresh positions should be kept very curtailed and selective while emphasising more on protection of profits at higher levels.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, March 03, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                     March 03, 2015
Markets continued to post gains yesterday as well but while doing so continued to encounter good amount of volatility as well. The Markets saw a positive opening yesterday and after opening positive went further ahead while forming day’s high of 8972.35. However, post morning trade, the Markets saw some amount of profit taking coming in as it shed all of its morning gains gradually to trade flat. It also dipped briefly into the negative territory forming the day’s low of 8885.45. The Markets traded in a capped range in the afternoon trade without any directional bias. The later part of the session once again saw recovery coming in as the Markets recouped much of its early losses. It went up almost near to its intraday high but finally settled the day at 8956.75, posting a net gain of 54.90 points or 0.62% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 03, 2015
The Markets are expected to open on a quiet note and faces two-fold possibility today. There are chances that they may attempt to continue its up move and move towards the psychological mark of 9000 and at the same time they continue to remain vulnerable to good amount of volatility and profit taking from higher levels. The Markets now enter a crucial stage wherein they would attempt to touch their life time highs and at the same time might also resort to profit taking as well.

The levels of 8985 and 9040 would act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports would exist at 8880 and 8750 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 63.8821 and it does not show any failure swing. However, NIFTY has continued to post fresh 14-period high but RSI has not yet and this is Bearish Divergence. The Daily MACD has now reported a positive crossover and it is now bullish trading above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY March futures have added over 8.73 lakh shares or 3.40% in Open Interest. This is positive indicator signifying the continuation of creation of fresh longs in the system.

While having a look at pattern analysis, the Markets have continued to move towards its life time highs and it is likely that it would continue to do so today as well. There are chances that the Markets attempts to continue with its up move but at the same time, as we had mentioned in our yesterday’s edition of Daily Market Trend Guide, it would be still far from what is known as a “break out” because of ever-rising upper trend line. Therefore, even if it moves towards its highs, it would continue to remain prone to high volatility and profit taking from higher levels.

Overall, it is advised to continue to remain heavily cautious while making fresh purchases. The Markets still has some steam left to not only move towards its life time highs but post fresh lifetime highs as well. However given the technical structure and given the lead indicators, it is advised to continue to keep over all exposure at moderate levels and keeping fresh purchases highly selective.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Monday, March 2, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, March 02, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                March 02, 2015
Markets had a horrifying session on Saturday while it dealt with the first full Budget from the present government and it swung nearly 190-odd points on either side, that too for multiple times before ending the day with modest gains. The Markets saw a near gap up opening on Saturday and while it approached the Budget, it saw gradual paring of its morning gains. Wild reactions and swing started as the proposals start pouring in. Markets, while trying to digest the budget, swung violently on either sides and at one point of time came off nearly 190-odd points from the high point of the day, which was 8941.10, to touch the day’s low of 8751.35. The final hour of the trade saw equally violent and volatile recovery from the low point of the day and it finally settled the day at 8901.85 posting a modest gain of 57.25 points or 0.65% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, MARCH 02, 2015
The Markets shall open today after a greatly violent and volatile session on Saturday while reacting to Budget proposals. However, today, we are again likely to see a gap up opening and the Markets are expected to open on a decently positive note. However, at the same time, it is important to note that even if the Markets opens on a strong and positive note, it is likely that the Markets remains within a rising trend line as evident on the Daily Chart. Therefore, the intraday trajectory that the Markets form post opening would be crucial.

The levels of 8950 and 9060 would act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports would come in at 8830 and 8750 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 61.3861 and it shows no failure swing. However, the NIFTY has formed a fresh 14-day high while the RSI has not and this is Bearish Divergence. The Daily MACD still continues to remain bearish trading below its signal line. On the Weekly Charts, Weekly RSI is 68.5577 and shows no failure swing. However, NIFTY has formed a fresh 14-week high but RSI has not and this shows Bearish Divergence as well. The Weekly MACD continues to trade above its signal line and is therefore bullish.

On the derivative front, NIFTY March futures have added over 15.17 lakh shares or 6.27% in Open Interest. This very clearly shows that fresh buying has been done and the rise that occurred in the second half of the session was not merely due to short covering.

Coming to pattern analysis now, it is very important to take note of few important things. 
Even if the Markets see a gap up opening and touches the psychological mark of 9000; or while doing so, posts a fresh life time highs, it will NOT be giving any fresh breakouts. It is very much likely that it continues to remain within the upper rising trend line. Though it may continue to remain in overall rising trajectory, fresh lifetime highs should not be taken as fresh breakouts. Therefore, again, in such case, consolidation from higher levels cannot be ruled out.

Overall, keeping in view the overall structure of the Charts, the Markets may open positive and continue with its up move but since it would be far from achieving a break out, it would walk towards its pattern resistance of upper rising trend line. Given this fact, it is advised to use all the up moves that occur to reduce positions or book and protect profits on existing positions while taking fresh exposures very selectively.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331