Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, January 15, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                January 15, 2015
The Markets continued to remain volatile as it ended the second day in a row with modest losses after positive opening. Keeping in line with its behaviour over previous session, the Markets saw a positive opening and formed its intraday high of 8356.45 in the very early minutes of the trade. The Markets soon came off its highs in the morning trade as it trade flat later on. However, in the early afternoon trade, the Markets gave up further as it dipped into the red. It  saw a sharp decline in the levels as it went on to form the day’s low of 8236.65, coming off nearly 90-odd points from the high point of the day. After trading in a range near the low point of the day, the Markets saw a equally sharp recovery from the lower levels. The volatile behaviour continued and the Markets finally settled the day at 8277.55, posting a net loss of 21.85 points or 0.26% while forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, JANUARY 15, 2015

The analysis for the day continues to remain much on similar lines as of last two sessions. The levels of 50-DMA have continued to resist the pullback and the Markets are consolidating around these levels. Expect the Markets to see a modestly lower to flat opening and look for directions. With the intraday trajectory remaining important, its behaviour vis-à-vis the levels of 50-DMA would continue to remain crucial.

The levels of 8340, which is the 50-DMA for the Markets followed by 8395 would act as immediate resistance. It would find support at 8235 and 8210 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 50.2125 and it remains neutral while it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or failure swings.  The Daily MACD continue to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY January futures have shed over 4.06 lakh shares or 2.26% in Open Interest. This springs some caution as the Markets are witnessing more of short covering than buying from lower levels.

While having a look at pattern analysis, the Markets have continued to resist at 50-DMA levels and for any pullback to successfully continue, it will have to move past this level at the earliest. Until this happens we will continue to see the Markets behaving in this fashion with volatility remaining ingrained in it.

Overall, the Markets will continue to remain volatile. For it to resume it pullback, it will have to move past the level of 50-DMA which is 8340 with volumes and good amount of participation. Though the downside remains limited, caution still need to be exercised while making selective purchases. Continuance of cautious outlook is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, January 14, 2015

We have not  been able to come out with our regular edition of Daily Market Trend Guide in PDF Format. We are producing "Brief Market Forecast" for the day below. Inconvenience is sincerely regretted.
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BRIEF MARKET FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 14, 2015

Markets saw a pretty volatile session yesterday as it swung once again in either direction while it ended the day with minor losses. Expect the Markets to open on a flat to mildly positive note and look for directions. The levels of 50-DMA shall continue to act as resistance today as well and it would be imperative for the Markets to move past this level in order to continue with its up move.

The RSI on Daily Charts stands neutral at 51.5867 and the Daily MACD continues to remain bullish trading above its signal line. The levels of 8341.50, which is the 50-DMA will continue to act as resistance today as well.

Overall, the Markets are consolidating in a ranged manner and the overall trend seems intact going by the pattern analysis. It is advised to refrain from shorts and some selective purchases may be made as stock specific action and sectoral out performance would continue.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA


www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Monday, January 12, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, January 13, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                              January 13, 2015
Markets remained volatile and at the same time continued with its up move and ended yet another day with modest gains. The Markets saw negative opening and post opening on negative note, formed its intraday low of 8245.60 in the early minutes of the trade. The morning trade saw the Markets recovering from the opening lows and trading flat with a capped range. The Markets once again saw a dip in the afternoon and went very near to its day’s low. However, the second half of the session saw good pullback from lower levels. The Markets not only recouped all of its losses again but also went on to trade higher in positive territory. It went on to form the day’s high of 8332.60 and while maintaining these levels, ended the day at 8323, posting a net gain of 38.50 points or 0.46% while continuing to form higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, JANUARY 13, 2015

Markets have continued to pullback but have resisted to its 50-DMA level which is 8338. Technically speaking, the Markets are expectedly to give a flat to modestly positive opening and continue with its pullback. It would be necessary for the Markets to move past this 50-DMA levels in order to continue with its up move. Favourable technical indicators supported by better than expected CPI and IIP data will aid to this.

The levels of 8340 and 8395 would act as immediate resistance. The supports come in at 8245 and 8210 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 53.0424 and it remains neutral as it shows no negative divergences or bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD is bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY January futures have added over 4.42 lakh shares or 2.59% in Open Interest. This is significant as the Markets were rising while shedding its OI. It was necessary for the Markets to add OI while on the rise as it implies that the rise is not merely due to short covering but is aided by fresh long positions.

Returning to pattern analysis, the Markets are still in the process of continuing and confirming its pullback. After retracing sharply from its lifetime highs, the Markets took support twice on its 100-DMA at Close levels and while pulling, it has ended very near to its 50-DMA. It would be imperative for the Markets to move past this level and stays above there in order to continue with its pullback.

Overall, the technical indicators as supported by F&O data stand in favour of the Markets continuing with its pullback. However, lack of volumes, which was evident in previous session, may cause it to consolidate in a given range for some time. However, IIP which stood much better than expected and the CPI coming at notch below expectation will certainly add cheer to the favourable technical indicators. Overall, positive caution is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Sunday, January 11, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, January 12, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                              January 12, 2015
The Markets had a volatile session on Friday as it swung on either side in a wide range before ending the day with modest gains. The Markets had a good positive start and it opened the day on a stronger note as it formed its intraday high of 8303.30 in the early minutes of the trade. However, post this opening, the Markets gradually pared its gains. By afternoon trade, it had come off completely from the day’s high and traded flat. It further went on to dip into the negative territory as it formed its day’s low of 8190.80. It struggled to remain afloat as it traded in a very capped range moving in and out of negative territory. In the last hour and half of trade, the Markets saw some strength returning as it travelled back into the positive territory. It went almost near to its day’s high and finally settled the day at 8284.50, posting a modest gain of 49.90 points or 0.61% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts

MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, JANUARY 12, 2015

Technically speaking, the Markets have once again attempted a pullback after taking support at its 100-DMA at Close levels. Expect the Markets to open on a quiet to modestly positive note and look for directions. The levels of 50-DMA are likely to pose some resistance. It would be important for the Markets to move past this level to avoid any further consolidation at these levels.

The levels of 8335 and 8370 would act as immediate resistance and the levels of 8250 and 8210 would act as immediate supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 50.9454 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD is bullish as it has again reported a positive crossover and now trades above its signal line. The Weekly RSI is 59.1236 and it continues to remain neutral without showing any bullish or bearish divergence or failure swings. The Weekly MACD is still bearish trading below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY January futures has shed over 6.87 lakh shares or 3.86% in Open Interest. This remains an area of concern as the it is essential that the Markets builds up fresh longs in order to continue with the up move.

Taking a cue from pattern analysis, the Markets have taken support at its 100-DMA twice and is attempting a pullback. However, on its way up, the Markets  are likely to face resistance from 50-DMA, the support which it broke on the downside. Until this happens, we might see the Markets trading in a broad trading range.

Overall, the overall trend in the Markets seems definitely intact as there is no structural breach on the Daily Charts. The Markets will have to move past the 50-DMA levels in order continue with its up move in convincing manner. Though sectoral out performance would continue we will continue to see stock specific purchases being made. Overall, while continuing to keep leverage under control, positive optimism is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331