Monday, April 6, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, April 06, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide                                                        April 06, 2015
MARKET REPORT  
The Markets ended the session on Wednesday on a buoyant note after a flat opening and closed with decent gains. The Markets saw a relatively quiet opening and thereafter drifted modestly in the negative territory while forming the day’s low of 8464.75 in the morning trade. The Markets saw itself trading in a very narrow and capped range with no major losses in the first half of the session. The second half of the session saw some strength coming in as the Markets crawled into the positive territory. After some range bound trade, the Markets surged ahead and rose nearly 135-odd points rise from the low part of the day. It went on to form the day’s high of 8603.40, moving past its 100-DMA in the process. These levels were sustained and the Markets finally ended the day at 8586.25, posting a decent gain of 95.25 points or 1.12% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF NIFTY AND MARKET TREND FORECAST  FOR MONDAY 06 APRIL, 2015
The Markets shall open today after a long slumber as Thursday and Friday in the previous weeks were holidays. Expect the Markets to open on a quiet note and trade without any directional bias in the initial trade. However, the Markets have attempted to find their bottom after posting lows of 8269.15 on March 27th and have since risen above its 100-DMA as well while recovering from lows. Today, we might see it consolidating with the levels of 100-DMA acting as support.

For today, the levels of 8645-60 and 8720 will act as immediate resistance. The supports would come in at 8535 and 8490 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 48.0610 and it remains neutral while showing no bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish trading below its signal line. However, it is moving towards reporting a positive crossover in coming days.  On Weekly Charts, Weekly RSI is 54.9090 and this too remains neutral showing bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing.  The Weekly MACD remains bearish trading below its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY April Futures have shed over 5.43 lakh shares or 2.78% in Open Interest. The NIFTY PCR stands at 0.96 as against 0.86.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets showed a sharp correction in the previous week and before. However, at the same time, it also attempted to find its bottom and have recovered some 350-odd points from the lows it posted on March 27th. In the process, it has also moved past their 100-DMA level which is now suppose to act as its support. The Markets are likely to consolidate before it gathers further directional bias and confirms the reversal. The impending RBI Policy review will weigh in some caution and would also provide a trigger to the Markets in the immediate short term.

Taking cues from Weekly Charts as well along with Daily Chart, it should not be surprising to see the Markets consolidating again in the immediate short term. However, the Markets have certainly attempted to find the bottom and while remaining in the consolidation phase again, the overall bias would certainly remain on the upside. The 100-DMA level which the Markets moved past is expected to act as support in the immediate short term. Overall, cautious optimism is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
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