Monday, March 9, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, March 09, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                    March 09, 2015
The Markets had an curtailed week as the Markets were closed on Friday on account of Holi. On Thursday, the Markets continued to fiercely consolidate and ended the day with minor gains after a volatile session and recovery from lower levels. The Markets saw a modestly positive opening and after that though it dipped briefly in to the red, remained flat and traded in a very narrow and capped range. The afternoon trade saw the Markets weakening further as it went on to shed some more and went on to form the day’s low of 8849.35. However, again, the second half of the session saw a very smart recovery coming in from lower levels. The Markets not only recouped all of its losses to trade back into the green but also went on to trade in positive territory. It further went on to post the day’s high of 8957.55 recovering more than 100-odd points from the low point of the day. Markets finally ended the day at 8937.75, posting minor gains of 15.10 points or 0.17% while forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, MARCH 09, 2015
The Markets would open today after a long weekend and they are likely to open on a lower note. Expect the Markets to open on a lower note today. The reason would be primarily weak technicals as the Markets have resisted to its upper rising trend line and another would be possibility of early rate hike from US. However, even with lower opening which is primarily because of weak technical factors will keep the overall trend intact as of yet.

The levels of 9010 and 9119 would act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports would come in at 8850 and 8790 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 60.6341 and it remains neutral showing no bullish or bearish divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it is  trading above its signal line.  On Candles, A bullish harami occurred (where the current small white body is contained within an unusually large black body).  During a downtrend this pattern implies an end to the decline as the bears appear to have exhausted themselves. During an uptrend (which appears to be the case with NIFTY) the bullish harami pattern is bearish as the bears appear to be gaining strength as the bulls weaken. However, this needs confirmation.

On the Weekly Charts, Weekly RSI is 69.2644 and it does not show any failure swings. However, NIFTY has formed a fresh 14-period high whereas Weekly RSI has not and this is Bearish Divergence. The Weekly MACD remain bullish trading above its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY March futures have further shed over 8.09 lakh shares or 3.01% in Open Interest. This signifies reduction / unwinding in positions and also some short covering from lower levels on Thursday.

Coming to pattern analysis, apart from news flow of sooner-than-expected rate hike from US, the pattern analysis clearly suggests the Markets to see some correction and broad consolidation at current levels. On the Daily Chart, it has resisted to the upper rising trend line at 9119 which is even bit higher today. The same has been the case on Weekly Charts as the Markets have resisted to the upper rising trend line. It would be completely fine and acceptable that the Markets see some mild paring of gains and broad range bound consolidation from here on. Even if it does so, it would keep its original uptrend intact.

Overall, we continue to reiterate to refrain from over exposure in the Markets. All up moves in the Markets from hereon should be used to protect existing profits and positions. Stock specific performance would continue as we will see good quality midcaps outperforming. Sectoral out performance will also be seen. Overall, cautious outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

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