Friday, January 2, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, January 02, 2015

We have not been able to come up with regular edition of Daily Market Trend Guide in PDF Format. However, we produce "Market Forecast in Brief" for today. Inconvenience caused is sincerely regretted.
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BRIEF MARKET FORECAST FOR THE DAY -- FRIDAY, JANUARY 2015

As mentioned here  since  last several trading days, the markets continue to be affected by year end holiday inertia. As foretold, the markets are experiencing resistance at its 50 Simple Moving Average, which is 8300 as of today.

Expect the Markets to open on a positive note and attempt to move past its 50-DMA. If the Markets opens and trade above that, we may see successful attempt of continuation of pullback after few days of consolidation on lower volumes.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA


www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331


Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, January 01, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                   January 01, 2015
The Markets ended the year 2014 on a positive note and continued to close with modest gains. The Markets saw a flat opening and post flat opening the Markets saw itself strengthening a bit by the late morning trade. However, once again, the Markets traded with much capped gains and in a narrow range while it continued to drift from its morning gains. The second half of the session saw the Markets inching upwards again. It attempted to move past its 50-DMA levels while it formed its intraday high of 8291, though it resisted there. These levels were maintained as the Markets ended the day at 8282.70, posting a net gain of 34.45 points or 0.42% while forming slightly higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts. So far as year 2014 goes, the NIFTY gained 31.40% posting its best gain since 2009.


MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, JANUARY 01, 2015

The Markets would continue to witness a typically holiday affected session once again as the Markets are likely to remain in slumber as they have been doing since last couple of sessions. We can expect a quiet opening and we would continue to see the levels of 50-DMA being the crucial levels to watch out for. In case of higher opening, the Markets will have to make sure to maintain itself above the 50-DMA levels in order to avoid remaining in sideways consolidating range.

The levels of 8290 (in case of opening lower than this level) and 8365 would act as immediate resistance. The supports come in at 8148 and 8100 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 50.2596 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bearish trading below its signal line but at the same time it is slowly but steadily moving towards giving a positive crossover.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY January futures have shed over 1.48 lakh shares or nominal 0.69% in Open Interest. This shows very mild profit taking ahead of a year close but certainly this figures remains an insignificant one.

Going by trend and pattern analysis, the Markets, as we have been mentioning in our previous couple of editions of Daily Market Trend Guide, has been resisting to its 50-DMA levels while attempting a pullback after making recent lows in mid December. It would be necessary for the Markets to move past these levels with conviction in order to successfully continue with the up move. However, the Markets are seeing some listless sessions due to lack of participation on account of year end holidays.

Overall, the trend continues to remain intact. We would see some good gains if the Markets moves past its 50-DMA and stays about that level in the immediate short term. However, we may see some listless activity due to holidays and therefore see some real momentum coming in the Markets only from next week. However, while maintaining adequate liquidity, cautious optimism is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, December 31, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                               December 31, 2014
The Markets continued to trade on lower volumes reflecting typically holiday affected session as it moved in 30-odd points during the entire session and ended the day on a flat note. The Markets saw a modestly positive opening and it formed its intraday high of 8268.25 in the early morning trade. After trading with extremely capped gains, the Markets drifted into negative territory. It spent most part of the remaining session in a negative territory trading with very modest losses. It formed the intraday low of 8220.55 in the late afternoon trade. However, the late afternoon trade also saw sharp recovery coming in from lower levels as the Markets recouped all of its losses to trade modestly into positive. It finally ended the day at 8248.25, posting flat close with nominal gain of 1.95 points or 0.02% while forming a parallel bar on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31, 2014

Markets have traded nearly on dotted lines have been seeing sessions typically affected by holiday season. Such sessions are characterized by very low participation and sedate volumes. While keeping the analysis more or less on similar lines, the Markets are again likely to see modestly positive opening. At the same time, the levels of 50-DMA which has continued to act as resistance at Close levels would be important levels to watch out for.

The levels of 8280 and 8345 would act as immediate resistance levels while the levels of 8220 and 8160 would act as immediate supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 47.8140 and it continues to remain neutral while showing no bullish or bearish divergences or failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bearish while trading below its signal lines.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY January futures have added another over 2.20 lakh shares or 1.04% in Open Interest. This shows that there have been less, but some modest buying that is being witnessed from lower levels.

While having a look at pattern analysis, the Markets are attempting a pullback after a sharp decline from a broadening formation on the Daily Charts. The Markets have been attempting a pullback since last several sessions since December 17th, but in the process has been witnessing some resistance by its 50-DMA levels. This level is acting as a resistance, a support the Markets broke while on its way down.

Overall, though it would be necessary for the Markets to move past the levels of 50-DMA and above, the chances of this happening are higher as supported by F&O data. Until this happens, this level would be critically to watch out for. Again, once can certainly continue to make very selective purchases as stock specific action would continue.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Monday, December 29, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, December 30, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                              December 30, 2014
Markets had a relatively stable session as it opened on a decently positive note but came of a bit to end with modest gains. The Markets saw a positive opening and after a buoyant opening the Markets moved in a sideways trajectory for the most part of the morning session. In the afternoon, the Markets saw some more strength coming it as it formed its intraday high of 8279.15. However, it never decisively broke its 50-DMA levels and it continued to resist. The second half of the session saw some paring of gains from the intraday high. The levels of 50-DMA continued to act as resistance and the Markets finally ended the day at 8246.30, posting a modest gain of 45.60 points or 0.56% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, DECEMBER 30, 2014

The analysis for the Markets continue to remain on similar lines as the Markets have continued to resist at its 50-DMA. The Markets may see a modestly positive opening again and may inch upward in the initial trade. The Markets have attempted to continue with its pullback as it has formed a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Charts but the levels of 50-DMA would be crucial to watch out for.

The levels of 8272 and 8325 would act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports would come in at 8150 levels and then at its 100-DMA which is 8093.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 47.7073 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY January futures have added over 3.82 lakh shares or 1.85% in Open Interest. This shows some fresh buying has been seen in the Marketts.
Going by the trend and pattern analysis, the Markets saw a sharp correction from its lifetime high levels and went on to correct over 66% from its top. It touched an intraday low of 7961.35 on 17th of December and has thus attempted a pullback from there. On its way up, the Markets have been resisting to its 50-DMA levels which is 8272 today. It would be necessary for the Markets to move past and trade above this level to continue with its pullback successfully.

Overall, the volumes are likely to continue to remain sedate due to holidays. However, the general trend is likely to remain intact and we might see gradual inching up of the Markets. In event of any downside, it is not expected be any major decline. It is advised to continue to make selective purchases while keeping adequate amount of liquidity. Stock specific and sectoral out performance is likely as well. Though we might see some ranged movements and some more resistance at current levels, the overall trend continue to remain intact.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Sunday, December 28, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, December 29, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                               December 29, 2014
The Markets had a sedate session on Friday after a Christmas holiday as it spent the most part of the session in sideways trajectory but ended the day with modest gains. The Markets saw a positive opening and it soon formed its intraday high of 8234.55 in the early minutes of the trade. It soon pared its gains to trade flat near its previous close. It spent the most part of the session thereafter moving in a sideways trajectory moving in a very narrow range. It continued to hover in the 20-odd points range until the late afternoon trade. The Markets saw some upside towards the end of the session and finally settled the day at 8200.70, posting a modest gain of 26.60 points or 0.33% while forming a slightly lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, DECEMBER 29, 2014

The Markets are likely to see quiet to mildly positive opening again but overall, it is likely to continue with a sedate performance on lower volumes due to year-end holidays. The levels of 50-DMA would be important and it would be critically important for the Markets to move past the 50-DMA levels in order to continue with its pullback.

The levels of 8264 and 8290 would act as immediate resistance whereas the levels of 8150 and 8100 would act as immediate supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 44.6264 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish while trading below its signal line. On the Weekly Charts, the Weekly RSI is 58.4898 and this too remains neutral without showing any bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Weekly MACD too remains bearish while it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY January futures have shed nominal Open Interest of over 1.47 lakh shares or 0.71%. This shows no major offloading was witnessed in the previous session.

Going by pattern analysis, there is no major breach on the Daily as well as Weekly Charts. The Markets have dipped below its 50-DMA and it will have to move past this level again in order to continue with its pullback. During the downside, there has been near-absent volumes. The lack lustre Markets are more due to lack of participation than due to weak technicals.

Overall, one can continue to make very selective purchases. The volumes are likely to continue to remain thin due to year-end holidays. However, given everything, the 50-DMA levels would continue to remain crucial and it would be important for the Markets to move past that level. While overall trend continuing to remain intact and with no major downside seen, positive caution is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331