Thursday, December 25, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, December 26, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                              December 26, 2014
After spending the most part of the session in a sideways trajectory, the Markets saw a rollover instigated jitters as it ended the day with losses. The Markets saw a quiet opening and traded positive in the morning trade.  It traded with modest gains while it formed the day’s high of 8286.40. However, while resisting at these levels the Markets soon returned to its previous close levels to trade flat. Later in the afternoon trade, the Markets dipped slightly in the negative but over all continued to trade with capped and limited losses while moving in sideways trajectory. However, last half an hour of trade saw rollover dominated jitters as the Markets very suddenly pared ground in a near-parabolic manner. It went on to form the day’s low of 8155.25 towards the end. It finally settled the day at 8174.10, still posting a net loss of 92.90 points or 1.12% while forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2014

The Markets would open after Christmas holiday but only for Friday’s session to be followed again by a weekend. The Markets are likely to see quiet opening and no major moves are expected as the volumes are expected to remain on lower side due to holidays. However, it would continue to resist to its 50-DMA levels again on the upside as it has closed below that.

The levels of 8258 and 8290 would act as resistance on the upside while the levels of 8085 would act as support in form of its 100-DMA.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 42.8010 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or failure swings.  The Daily MACD continue to remain bearish while trading below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY January series have added over 49.18 lakh shares or 30.85% in Open Interest. The overall NIFTY and Market wide rollovers have remained slightly below its 30-month average.

Returning to pattern analysis, the Markets have dipped below its 50-DMA level again and therefore this level would act as resistance on its way up again. It would be very necessary for the Markets to move up and past this level in order to avoid any weakness from creeping in again. On the downside, the levels of 100-DMA remains a major support for the Markets.

Overall, given the near-absent volumes again, the Markets are less likely to see any major downsides again. However, the volumes would continue to remain lighter due to holidays and truncated trading week. It is advised to continue to remain light on positions and maintain liquidity. Purchases should be restricted to selective stocks and shorts should be strictly avoided as the overall trend continues to still remain intact.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, December 24, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                          December 24, 2014
The Markets traded perfectly on expected lines as it halted its 3-day gaining streak and ended the day with modest losses while taking support on its 50-DMA levels. The Markets saw a quiet opening and soon gained strength and continued with its up move in the morning trade. It was in morning session that it formed its day’s high of 8364.75. The morning session saw the Markets then trade with capped gains. The second half of the session saw expected profit taking from higher levels as the Markets rapidly lost ground. It pared its morning gains and went further into negative to form the day’s low of 8252.85 losing more than 100-odd points from the high point of the day. It saw some minor recovery but it finally ended the day at 8267, posting a net loss of 57 points or 0.68% while still forming a slightly higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 24, 2014

This session remains crucial for the Markets. First, we have a truncated week with Thursday being a holiday on account of Christmas; and second, because of this, we have a expiry coming up a day ahead. Keeping technicals in view, the Markets are again likely to witness a quiet opening and might trade range bound in initial trade. The levels of 50-DMA, 8254, would be crucial and the Markets should trade above that to avoid any weakness from creeping in again.

The levels of 8295 and 8360 would act as immediate resistance. The levels of 8254 would act as immediate support at Close levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 47.95 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD continues to trade bearish as it trades below its signal line but is attempting a positive rollover in coming sessions after getting flattened out.

On the derivative front, NIFTY December futures shed over 45.90 lakh shares or 25.58% in 
Open Interest. The January series added over 51.53 lakh shares or 47.76% in OI. The rollovers continued and remained in line with its previous 3 months average.

Going by the pattern analysis, as we had mentioned in our previous edition of Daily Market Trend Guide, the Markets have consolidated after nearly 360-odd points of pullback. Also, as expected, it has attempted to take support at its 50-DMA levels. It would be of key importance for the Markets to maintain levels above its 50-DMA.  So long as it remains above 50-DMA levels, it would consolidate and once again attempt to continue with its pullback.

Overall, being expiry day, the session is likely to remain dominated with rollover centric  activities. The volumes have remained on much lower side and this is good in case of downsides. Any up move will have to be accompanied with good participation. The 50-DMA would be crucial to be watched out for and it would be imperative for the Markets to trade and maintain itself above that. Overall, while maintaining controlled exposure, positive caution is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Monday, December 22, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, December 23, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                                December 23, 2014
The Markets resisted for the most part of the day to its 50-DMA levels but at the end saw a sharp spurt and an ending with decent gains. The Markets saw a positive opening on expected lines but after opening positive, it moved in a very narrow range. It traded with capped gains in 25-odd point range for the most part of the day though it never dipped into the negative territory. The late afternoon trade saw the Markets taking a sharp spurt on the upside. It witnessed sudden strength coming it which gave it a near parabolic rise. It went on to form the day’s high of 8330.95 towards the end of the session. These levels were maintained and the Markets finally ended the day at 8324, posting a net gain of 98.80 points or 1.20% while forming a sharply higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23, 2014

Technically speaking, the Markets have ended the day near its high point and it is likely to open positive and continue with its up move at least in the initial session. However, we enter the penultimate day of expiry of current series as Thursday remains a holiday on account of Christmas. The session is likely to see a volatile rollover dominated movements and the levels of 50-DMA would continue to once again act as support.

The levels of 8350 and 8390 would act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The 50-DMA level of 8245 would act as immediate support for the Markets at Close levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 51.4321 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish while trading below its signal line.

On the derivative front, rollovers continued as the NIFTY December futures shed over 18.45 lakh shares or 9.32% in Open Interest. The January Futures added over 44.54 lakh shares or 70.30% in Open Interest.

Going back to pattern analysis, the Markets have seen a pullback of nearly 360-odd points from its intraday low on 17th of December. However, while doing that, it has maintained its support on 100-DMA at Close levels and have moved past its 50-DMA to Close above that. Now, in order to continue with its up move / pullback, even if the Markets sees some consolidation or mild profit taking, the levels of 50-DMAare expected to act as support once again at Close levels.

Overall, though the pullback and the factors affecting it remain intact, some amount of volatility induced by rollovers cannot be ruled out. It may happen that the Markets witness some mild profit taking after a pullback of 360-odd points from its intraday lows and due to this some amount of volatility may remain ingrained. However, overall no major downside is expected in the Markets. With stock specific approach being maintained, cautious optimism is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Sunday, December 21, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, December 22, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                              December 22, 2014
Markets continued with its up move and short covering continued on Friday as well as the Markets went on to end with gains on the second day running though it resisted to its 50-DMA at Close. The markets saw a minor gap up opening again and after opening positive the Markets went on to post gains gradually. It went on to form the day’s high of 8263.45 by late morning trade. The Markets thereafter traded in a sideways trajectory trading in 25-odd points range. In the second half of the session, though the market overall maintained its gains, it came off from its day’s high. It finally ended the day at 8225.20, posting a net gain of 65.90 points or 0.81% forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2014

Markets will now see a very important session as it has resisted to its 50-DMA levels at Close. We are likely to see a quiet to modestly positive opening and the levels of 8235, which is the 50-DMA for the Markets would be the critical levels to watch out for. It would be critically important for the Markets to open or move past this level in order to avoid any weakness from keeping in again. The intraday trajectory would also remain equally important.

The levels of 8235 and 8310 would act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports would come in at 8190 and 8150 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 44.9466 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD still continues to remain bearish trading below its signal line but has flattened out.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY December futures have shed over 22.45 lakh shares or 10.19% in Open Interest. The January futures have added over 27.22 lakh shares or 75.33% in Open Interest. The rollovers have been seen but at the same time, most of the pullback has come in form of short covering. It would be important for the Markets to see fresh buying and addition of OI for it to continue with its up move.

Going by pattern analysis, the Markets have resisted to its 50-DMA which is 8235. On its way down, the Markets had broken the support of its 50-DMA and therefore, this level of 50-DMA is now acting as its resistance on its way up. It would be important for the Markets to move past and end above the 50-DMA levels in order to avoid any weakness from creeping in again. Moving past 50-DMA would be important for the Markets to continue with its up move / pullback.

Overall, while continuing with policy of maintaining limited exposure in the Markets, some minor purchases in very selective manner can be made. Even if we see some minor range bound swings, they would remain rollovers dominated and therefore stock specific action and sectoral out performance would remain. While remaining highly selective and stock specific, positive caution is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331