Thursday, November 27, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, November 28, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                         November 27, 2014
The Markets had a volatile expiry as the Markets moved in either direction before closing just a notch below 8500 levels while registering minor gains. The Markets saw a modestly positive opening and after this saw a range bound trade in the morning session before it slipped into the red. By afternoon trade, the Markets slipped further in to the negative territory while it formed the day’s low of 8456.35. However, it was in the second half of the day when volatility creped in. The Markets saw a sudden spurt from the low point of the day as it not only revered all of its losses from lower levels but also traded in to the positive territory. It further went on to form the day’s high of 8506.75 towards the end of the session. It finally settled the day at 8494.20, posting a minor gain of 18.45 points or 0.22% while forming a mildly higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2014

The Markets continue to heavily consolidate sideways along with rising upper trend line as evident on the Daily Charts and this makes the analysis to continue to remain on similar lines as it was in last couple of sessions. We can again expect a quiet opening in the Markets and it would be important for the Markets to trade above 8440 levels in order to avoid any weakness.

The levels of 8500 and 8540 would act as resistance while the supports would come in at 8440 and further down at 8340 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 68.7671 and it continues to remain neutral as it shows no bearish or bullish divergences or any kind of failure swing. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line. However, it has flattened out and may post negative crossover in event of any weakness.

On the derivative front, NIFTY December futures have added over 46.99 lakh shares or 28.94% in Open Interest. It signifies some good amount of fresh long positions created. The rollovers in NIFTY and Stocks have remained above its 3-Month series average.

Going once again by pattern analysis, the Markets is moving across the upper trend line of the broadening formation. The Markets certainly remains at a critical juncture and it will have to continue to maintain levels above of 8430 in order to avoid any weakness creeping in. Any dip below this level would induce some short term weakness in the Markets.

Overall, it is important to understand that the Markets are not completely out of the woods. It has been posting fresh highs but clear breakout is not achieved which is very typically seen in such patterns. Until clear breakout is achieved there are always theoretical chances some correction. There are chances that we might continue to see pressure from higher levels and therefore it is advised to continue with the policy of controlled exposure and caution in the Markets for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, November 27, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                     November 26, 2014
The Markets had a volatile session which is usually typical of rollover activities as it swung on either side before ending the day with nominal gains. The Markets saw a very quiet and flat opening. However, after opening on a quite note, the Markets slipped gradually in the morning trade to form the day’s low of 8438.65. It did not breach this level and spent the first half of the session in a ranged movement. It was in the second half when the Markets recouped its losses and managed to trade flat again. It saw further strength coming in as it went on to post the day’s high of 8500.30 recovering nearly 60+points from its intraday low. The last hour of the trade saw some paring of gains again from the day’s high point. The Markets finally ended the day at 8475.75, posting a nominal gain of 12.65 points or 0.15% while forming a lower top but slightly higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2014

Analysis remains more or less on similar lines once again as the Markets fiercely continue to consolidate above the rising trend line which is evident on the Daily Charts. We can once again expect a very quiet opening in the Markets and the levels of 8440 would remain critical levels for the Markets. It would be important and necessary for the Markets to trade above this level in order to avoid any weakness creeping in.

The levels of 8500 and 8535 acts as immediate resistance and the levels of 8440 and 8310 would act as immediate supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 67.6774 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it trades above it signal line. However, if the Markets continue to consolidate without registering any significant gains, we may see Daily MACD posting a negative crossover.

On the derivative front, NIFTY and Marketwide rollovers continued which remained above its 3-month series average. The NIFTY November futures shed over 36.29 lakh shares or 27.82% in Open Interest whereas the December series added over 44.96 lakh shares or 38.28% in Open Interest.

Going by the pattern analysis, the Markets have been fiercely consolidating along the rising trend line as very much evident on the Daily Chart. On the Weekly Charts, this translate into a distinct broadening formation and it would be very necessary for the Markets to give a clear breakout in coming days. Failure to do so would invite some short term weakness in the Markets. The level of 8440 would remain important as any dip below this level will induce some short term weakness in the Markets.

Overall, we reiterate our view to curtail over exposure in the Markets. Any purchases, as we have been maintaining in our previous editions, should be extremely stock specific. The session is also likely to remain dominated with rollover centric activities. While continuing to protect profits at higher levels, cautious outlook is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA


www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, November 26, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                              November 25, 2014
The Markets saw some correction setting in after opening levels as it ended the day with modest losses. The Markets saw a quiet and sedate opening but after opening flat to modestly negative, it settled itself in the negative territory. For the entire session, the Markets never really traded positive even once. Once slipped into negative territory post opening, it kept itself in falling trajectory for the entire session. It kept losing ground gradually and in the late afternoon trade, went on to form the day’s low of 8429.45. The Markets briefly traded around these levels but it also saw some minor recovery towards the end. It finally settled the day at 8463.10, posting a net loss of 67.05 points or 0.79% while forming a similar top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts. 

MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2014

The Markets are again poised at a critical juncture and the opening of the Markets would be very critical to decide the trend for immediate short term. The Markets have attempted a breakout and have closed just above its rising trend line. The Markets may see a modestly positive opening. It would be critically important for the Markets to open and trade above 8430. Any dip below 8430 can induce short term weakness in the Markets.

The levels of 8450 and 8475 can act as resistance. Supports come in at 8430 and further down at 8310 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 66.9430 and it has just crossed below from a topping formation. It has also reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. Further, the RSI has made a fresh 14-period low but NIFTY has not yet and this is Bearish Divergence. The Daily MACD still maintains its bullish condition while trading above its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY November futures shed over 58.59 lakh shares or 30.99% in Open Interest while December futures have added 56.88 lakh shares or 93.93% in Open Interest. This being the expiry week, rollovers were clearly seen in NIFTY and stocks.
Going by the pattern analysis, the Markets have attempted a break out but has not yet confirmed it. Trading above the levels of 8430 would be critically important for the Markets. 

Even if the Markets see a up move and sees some selling pressure again, it would be really important for the Markets to trade above 8430 levels. Any dip below 8430 levels can induce short term weakness in the Markets.

Overall, the lead indicators suggest that the Markets may continue to see some selling pressure from higher levels. Given this reading, it is advised to refrain from any aggressive positions. Extensive exposures should be avoided and existing profits should be vigilantly protected. While maintaining adequate liquidity and cash, cautious outlook is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide for Tuesday, November 25, 2014 is not published. Inconvenience caused is sincerely regretted.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA


www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, November 24, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                               November 21, 2014
The markets once again attempted a fresh breakout on Friday as it opened positive and ended the day with decent gains. The Markets saw a decent opening and post positive opening, the Markets saw some further strength coming in as it posted its fresh lifetime high in the late morning trade. However, after this the Markets  saw itself coming of these levels as it retraced a bit and trading in a sideways trajectory in the afternoon trade. The second half of the session saw some strength returning again as it formed a fresh high of 8489.80 in the final hour of the trade. The Markets hovered around those levels and finally settled the day at 8477.35, still posting a decent gain of 75.45 points or 0.90% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2014

Markets have ended near the high point of the day and technically speaking, it is likely to continue the up move. We can expect a quiet but decent opening and further expect the Markets to confirm the attempted breakout. The Markets are trading “overbought”. This warrants some caution but even technically speaking, the buoyant Markets tend to remain overbought while they consolidate at given levels.

The levels of 8500 and 8535 would act as expected resistance levels as the Markets trade in uncharted territory in case of up move. The supports would come in much lower at 8270 and 8215 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 72.8735 and it trades in “overbought” zone. It does not show any failure swing but it shows Bearish Divergence as the NIFTY has formed a fresh 14-period high but RSI has not. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish trading above its signal line. On the Weekly Chart, the Weekly RSI is 73.1207 and it too trades in “overbought” territory. However, it has reached its highest value in last 14-weeks which is bullish as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence. The Weekly MACD is bullish as it has reported a positive crossover.

On the derivative front, the NIFY November futures have shed 4.48 lakh shares or 2.10% in Open Interest. This will have little significance now as we enter the expiry week and this standalone data would be of little use.

Going by the pattern analysis, the markets continue to test the upper rising trend line of a broadening formation on both Weekly and Daily Charts. Given this, it has attempted a breakout from this on the upside. However, at the same time, the Markets remains “overbought” and this may cause the Markets to post gradual up moves while seeing intermittent bouts and consolidation.

Overall, the reading the Daily and Weekly Charts, even though the Markets trade “overbought” at current levels, the under tone remains certainly bullish and buoyant. However, given the overbought nature, the Markets may see volatility remaining ingrained with some profit taking bouts also at intermittent periods. However, defensives are expected to outperform. Overall, while remaining vigilant, cautious optimism is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331