Friday, November 14, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, November 14, 2014

Due to a technical glitch we have not been able to publish regular edition of Daily Market Trend Guide in PDF Format. However, we reproduce Brief Market Forecast for the Day below. Inconvenience caused is sincerely regretted.

BRIEF MARKET FORECAST FOR THE DAY, FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2014


The Markets corrected from higher levels on expected lines yesterday and continued with its consolidation. Today as well, the analysis continues to remain more or less on expected lines. The Markets may open modestly higher but would continue to resist on the upside while remaining in "overbought" territory. The intraday trajectory that the Markets forms post opening would remain crucial.

With the lead indicators remaining overbought the chances of Markets witnessing pressure from higher levels remains. With the levels of 8410 and 8435 continuing to act as resistance any up move should be continued to be utilized to protect profits at higher levels. While also continuing with very selective purchases, cautious approach is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA


www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, November 13, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                                November 12, 2014
Markets touched yet another fresh lifetime highs as it moved passed psychological 8400 mark in the intraday trade. The Markets saw positive opening on expected lines and after opening positive, the Markets kept making gradual highs in the morning trade. It went past the psychological 8400-mark to form the day’s high of 8415.05 in the late morning trade. However, the Markets saw some resistance coming in as it came off its highs. Markets spent the rest of the session in slowly paring of gains as it drifted lower. However, gains were maintained all throughout and the Markets finally ended the day at 8383.30 posting a net gain of 20.65 points or 0.25% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2014

With the Markets fiercely consolidating since last several sessions, the analysis would remain on similar lines. The Markets may see positive opening if at all the sentiments are aided by the better IIP numbers and lowering of inflation but at the same time the overbought nature of the Markets will make it certainly vulnerable to the pressure from higher levels.

The levels of 8415 and 8440 would act as resistance while the levels of  8270 and 8215 levels would continue to act as immediate supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index  on the Daily Chart is 73.5657 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-periods which is bullish. However, it does not show any bullish or bearish divergence and it trades in “overbought” territory. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish trading above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY November futures have added over 5.80 lakh shares or 2.5% in Open Interest. These figures suggest fresh longs being created. Such action would resist any downside from higher levels and keep the Markets in consolidation in event of any weakness creeping in from higher levels.

Looking at pattern analysis, the Markets have been fiercely consolidating at higher levels on the upper rising trend line of the broadening formation. Having said this, this can certainly be interpreted as very high resilience levels and display of very strong undercurrent and strength by the Markets. This has certainly upward bias but the overbought nature of the Markets calls for caution at each higher levels.

Overall, keeping in line with the overall analysis over last couple of days, we would keep the analysis on such similar lines. Though undercurrent remains certainly strong and buoyant, the overbought markets call for caution at higher levels. This makes the Markets bit vulnerable at higher levels and makes it prone to sharp profit taking at any time from such higher levels. However, given the strong undercurrent, while protecting profits as usual at higher levels, selective purchases may be made. Continuance of positive caution is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, November 12, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                          November 11, 2014
Markets consolidated for the fifth day in a row as it moved in a capped range and ended the day with minor gains after good amount of volatility. The Markets saw a positive opening and after opening positive, it went on to form the day’s high of 8378.70 in the morning trade itself. However, as expected, the Markets saw some selling pressure at higher levels. It not only pared its gains gradually but went on to dip in the negative in the afternoon trade while forming it’s day’s low of 8321.85. However, the remaining second half of the session was spent recovering from the day’s low. The Markets did manage to recover its losses and went back to trade in the positive territory. It finally ended the day at 8362.65, posting a minor gain of 18.40 points or 0.22% while forming a slightly higher top and bottom on the Daily Bar Charts. 


MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2014

The Markets are again likely to see modestly positive openings today and there are chances that the Markets attempts to inch upwards. However, with the Markets remaining in “overbought” zone for a while now, any attempt to up move can meet selling pressure at higher levels and reduce an upward move to ranged consolidation.

The levels of 8375 and 8420 would continue to act as probable resistance levels as the Markets would then trade in uncharted territories. The supports would exist at  8270 and 8215 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 72.6228 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-periods which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence and it also trades in “overbought” territory. Daily MACD remains bullish while trading above its signal line.

On derivative front, the NIFTY November futures have added 70,150 shares or minor 0.30% in Open Interest. This can be interpreted as no major shifting of positions on either side has been witnessed. No major unwinding or creations of fresh positions have been observed.

Looking at pattern analysis, the Markets have been severely consolidating near the upper rising trend line of the broadening formation on the Daily as well as Weekly Charts. Normally one can interpret this as extremely bullish in the immediate short term but it also has to be kept in mind that the Markets are “overbought” and this can prevent any runaway rise and can also cause some selling pressure at higher levels.

Overall, there are chances that the Markets continues to attempt its up move and in the process severely consolidates as it has been doing since last 5 sessions. It is advised to utilize any up move to protect profits on long positions. Fresh purchases should be extremely stock specific with more emphasis on defensive and other sector specific stocks. Though under current certainly remains intact,  positive caution is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA


www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Due to a technical glitch we have not been able to publish regular edition of Daily Market Trend Guide in PDF Format. However, we reproduce Brief Market Forecast for the Day below. Inconvenience caused is sincerely regretted.


BRIEF MARKET FORECAST FOR THE DAY, TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 11, 2014

Expect the Markets to open and trade positive in the initial trade. The Markets are likely to extend their advances but are also likely to continue to consolidate as they have been doing in past couple of sessions. RSI on Daily Charts stands at 71.79 and remains in "overbought" zone.

Any up move should be first utilized in protecting profits at higher levels. Selective purchases in defensive stocks can be made that though the Markets may consolidate, the undercurrent remains buoyant.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA


www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

Monday, November 10, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, November 10, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                                November 07, 2014
The Markets on Friday once again continued to tread the dotted lines as analyzed as it consolidated once again to end the day virtually flat. The Markets opened on a quiet note and soon formed  its intraday high of 8360.35 in the early minutes of the trade. Thereafter, the Markets soon dipped into the negative territory. This negative territory got bit deeper as the Markets soon formed its low point of the day at 8290.25 in the late morning trade. The Markets spent rest of the session from recovering from these lows. Throughout the session it kept gradually recovering and in the final hour of the trade it recouped all of its losses to trade flat near the previous close. It finally ended the day at 8337, posting very nominal loss of 1.30 points or 0.02% while forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2014

The Markets are expected to see a quiet opening but looking at the Daily and Weekly Charts, there are all chances that the Markets would continue to consolidate amid some volatility ingrained in it. In event of any up move or positive opening some profit taking from higher levels just cannot be ruled out. Therefore, the analysis continues to remain more or less on similar lines.

The levels of 8365 and 8390 would continue to act as resistance and the levels of 8270 and 8215 would continue to act as supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 71.4728 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. However, it continues to trade in “overbought” territory. The Daily MACD remains bullish trading above its signal line. On the Weekly Chart, the Weekly RSI is 70.6109 and it trades in “overbought” territory. The NIFTY has also formed a fresh 14-period weekly high but Weekly RSI has not and therefore it shows a Bearish Divergence. The Weekly MACD remains bearish as it trades below its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY November futures have added over 3.78 lakhs shares or 1.67% in Open Interest. This shows continuation of building of fresh longs in the segment.

While taking a look at pattern analysis, the Markets on Daily and more on Weekly Charts have very distinctly tested the upper rising trend line of a broadening formation. As mentioned often in our previous editions of Daily Market Trend Guide, it is this formation which is disallowing the Markets to post a clear breakout. Under the given circumstances, it is likely that the Markets may not see a runaway rise and might be prone to consolidation at higher levels with a mild downward bias.

Reading this along with F&O data, there are chances that the Markets would see some profit taking pressure at higher levels. This may get reduced to range bound consolidation but volatility would continue to remain. Stock specific  action would continue. While selective purchases may be made more emphasis should be laid on protecting profits. Overall, cautious optimism is advised.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331