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Thursday, May 8, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, May 08, 2014

We have not been able to come out with regular edition of Daily Market Trend Guide in regular PDF Format. Market forecast in brief has been given below.Inconvenience caused is sincerely regretted.
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BRIEF MARKET FORECAST FOR THE DAY

Expect the Markets to open on a modestly positive note and trade with gains in the initial session.However, given the technicals, the Markets may continue to correct once again from higher levels. Though a technical pullback cannot be ruled out, the overall bias continues to remain towards continuing correction.

Overall, it is advised to continue to remain moderate on exposure until the Markets find bottom for itself. Apart from intermittent pullbacks, correction might continue with volatility ingrained in it. Very selective purchases apart, moderate exposures with caution are advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

+91-98250-16331

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, May 07, 2014

MARKET REPORT May 07, 2014

Yesterday’s session turned out in the manner as precisely analyzed in our yesterday’s edition of Daily Market Trend Guide as the Markets opened higher but pared most of its gains by the end but yet managed to keep its head in the green. The Markets opened on a positive note and it formed its intraday high of 6743.45 in the early minutes of the trade. Thereafter the Markets transformed itself into a falling channel and kept losing the morning gains gradually. By late afternoon trade, it had pared almost all of it’s gains while it formed the day’s low of 6701.90. The Markets never really attempted to pullback but in the last minutes of the trade it saw some minor recovery from those lows and finally ended the day at 3715.30, posting minor gains of 15.95 points or 0.24% while forming a slightly higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Today’s analysis would again remain more or less on similar lines as that of yesterday. The Markets would see a quiet opening with a downward bias and they are expected to remain in the corrective mode at least in the initial trade. Though as mentioned yesterday, intermittent technical pullbacks cannot be rule out all other indicators continue to point towards continuation of consolidation / corrective activities in the Markets.

For today, the levels of 6740 and 6775 would act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports exist lower at 6650 and 6610 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 53.9294 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY May futures have shed over 2.45 lakh shares or 1.87% in Open Interest. This signifies that there has been offloading / unwinding of long positions while the Markets pared its gains during the day.

Going by the pattern analysis, the Markets may confirm the top it formed at 6869 levels if it shows no pullback in coming days. It would mean that it would slowly but gradually inch towards its 50-DMA and it would do so while witnessing some intermittent technical pullbacks. During this time, in order to continue with its overall up move the Markets will have to form a higher top and higher bottom in the channel and move back towards its previous top. Until this happens the Markets would continue to remain in the corrective mode.

All and all we continue to reiterate our advice to continue to vigilantly protect profits at higher levels with each pullbacks. However, since the Markets are correcting and they are not in a downtrend, fresh shorts should be avoided and any decline should be utilized to make very selective purchases. While continuing to remain moderate on exposures, cautious approach is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

+91-98250-16331

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, May 06, 2014

MARKET REPORT May 06, 2014

The Markets stopped its 5-day losing streak yesterday as it ended the day yesterday on a minor green tick, though after lot of volatile movement during the day. The Markets opened negative and formed its intraday low of 6680.45 in the very early seconds of the trade. It crawled into the green immediately in the morning trade. The Markets remained in upward rising trajectory and kept forming gradual new highs. In the late afternoon trade, the Markets went on to form the day’s high of 6741.05. However, it was only now that the Markets changed its trajectory. It formed a downward falling channel and kept paring its gains gradually. At one point it pared all of its gains and traded flat. The Markets finally ended the day at 6699.35, posting a nominal gain of 4.55 points or 0.07% while forming a higher top but lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Today’s analysis would remain more or less on similar lines as the Markets are expected to open with a mild up tick but there are chances that the Markets continues to remain in the corrective mode and it pares its opening gains as we go ahead in the session. The intraday trajectory would be important and despite the possibility of the technical pullback that the Markets may continue to witness the overall corrective state of the Markets may continue to persist.

The levels of 6725 and 6750 would act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports exist at 6655 and 6610 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 52.0858 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bearish as it trades below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY May futures have added over 2.89 lakh shares or 2.25% in Open Interest. This signifies hat there has been some fresh shorts that have been created, mostly in the second half of the session. The NIFTY PCR stands at 0.92 as against 0.91.

The pattern analysis continue to paint the same picture. The Markets are likely to continue to remain in the corrective mode. However, given some fresh shorts in the system, it might witness some intermittent technical pullbacks in the immediate short term but overall structure still continue to point towards the correction in the Markets continuing for some more time.

All and all, despite mildly positive opening that is likely today, there are chances that the corrective activities in the Markets continue. Given the fresh shorts some intermittent pullbacks may be seen with some amount of volatility remaining ingrained in the Markets. Given this reading, any up tick should be utilized to protect profits and downsides should be utilised to make fresh purchases, but on very selective note. While continuing to remain moderate on the overall exposure, caution is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com
+91-98250-16331

Monday, May 5, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, May 05, 2014

MARKET REPORT May 05, 2014

The Markets continued to remain in a consolidating mode in the Friday’s session as it opened the day with gains but gradually pared all of those gains to end with minor losses. The Markets opened the day on a positive note and formed its intraday high of 6737.65 in the very early minutes of the trade. The Markets pared all of its gains in the morning trade itself to trade flat in capped range with very limited gains. Thereafter, the Markets spent the most part of the session in a 20-odd points range while remaining in falling trajectory making lower tops. It dipped into the red in the last minutes of the trade to form the day’s low of 6689.50. The Markets finally ended the day at 6694.80, posting a minor loss of 1.60 points or 0.02% while forming a lower top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Expect the Markets to open on a modestly positive note and trade with gains at least in the initial trade. However, while continuing with our Friday’s analysis, we expect the Markets to continue to remain in a range bound consolidation. Given this, it is once again likely that the Markets may see initial technical spurt but later on pares its gains while continuing to correct / consolidate at these levels.

For today, the levels of 6720 and 6745 are likely to act as immediate resistance on the Daily Charts. The supports exist much lower at 6650 and 6605 levels.

The lead indicators continue to point towards weakness in the markets continuing. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 51.5724 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. Further to this, the RSI has set a new 14-period low while NIFTY has not yet and this is Bearish Divergence. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish while trading below its signal line. On the Weekly Charts, the Weekly RSI continues to remain “overbought”. The Weekly MACD too continues to remain in “overbought” territory.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY May futures have continued to shed 98,100 shares or 0.76% in Open Interest. This signifies that offloading / unwinding of positions continued though in moderate quantities.

Going by the pattern analysis, as we have mentioned often in our previous editions of Daily Market Trend Guide, the Markets have retraced and have corrected after forming a top at 6869 levels after it failed to breakout on the upside. Since then, the Markets have been correcting and keeping in view the pattern formation and this being supported by F&O data and lead indicators, the Markets are all likely to remain in this corrective / consolidation stage for some more time.

All and all, we continue with our analysis of Markets remaining in corrective mode for some time. However, some intermittent technical pullbacks should not be ruled out. Any such pullbacks should be utilized in booking profits in long positions and dips should be utilized in making very selective purchases. However, overall exposure should still be kept at moderate levels and cautious approach should be maintained for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

+91-98250-16331