Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, February 26, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                                   February 26, 2014
The Markets had a session of positive consolidation today as it remained in arrange, with some volatility on expected lines and ended the day on a positive note. The saw itself opening on a positive note and after a decent opening, the Markets gained some more strength as it recorded its day’s high of 6216.85. However, the Markets pared all of its gains in the first half of the session. It came off its early highs and in the afternoon trade dipped in the negative for a brief period while forming the day’s low of 6176.60. The Markets saw reversal of intraday trend as it traded back into positive territory and saw much of its losses being recovered. It finally managed to end the day at 6200.05, posting a modest gain of 13.95 points or 0.23% while continuing to form a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets are expected to open on a quiet note again and would look for directions. The yesterday’s session saw some positive consolidation and today’s session would remain more or less on similar lines. Today, we will have expiry of current February series (Tomorrow being a trading holiday) and this would continue to see the session remaining dominated with rollovers and positive consolidation. 

For today, the levels of 6220 and 6255 would act as immediate resistance on the Charts whereas the levels of 6180 and 6165 would act as immediate supports.

The lead indicators continue to remain perfectly in shape. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 57.2139 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.  

On the derivative front, rollovers continued as NIFTY February futures shed over 26 lakh shares  or 21.01% in Open Interest whereas March series added over 35% in total open interest.

Going by the pattern analysis, the Markets have moved past its 100-DMA and 50-DMA at Close. If the consolidation has to the Markets will have to remain in a capped range with the levels of 100-DMA acting as bottom. The Markets will have to maintain levels above of 100-DMA or say, 6160-6150 range in order to avoid any weakness creeping in again and maintain its up move.

All and all, the Markets are likely to spend some time in a range. Given expiry today, the Markets are likely to see some volatility as well and might witness a bidirectional movement. However, the undercurrent certainly remains intact as of now. While avoiding shorts, selective purchases may be made. Any existing profits on the up side should be protected as well. Sectoral out performance would continue. Overall, cautious optimism is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331



Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, February 25, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                               February 25, 2014
After opening on a negative note the Markets inched up for the second day in a row and ended the day with modest gains. The Markets saw a negative opening as it opened modestly down. However, after opening on the negative note, it formed its intraday low of 6130.80 in the early minutes of the trade. The Markets saw itself trading in negative territory in the morning trade but it had remained in upward rising channel since opening. This saw the Markets taking itself in the positive zone by late morning trade. The Markets for the rest of the session remained in upward rising trajectory for the rest of the session and also moved past its 100-DMA and 50-DMA as it kept making gradual intraday lows. It went on to mark the day’s high of 6191.85 and finally ended  the day at 6186.10, posting a modest gain of 30.65 points or 0.50% while continuing to form a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets are expected to open on a modestly positive note and continue with its up move at least in the initial trade. The session would remain dominated today with the rollovers as we enter the penultimate day of the expiry. Tomorrow would be the expiry of the current month, as Thursday is a trading holiday. The Markets are likely to find resistance near their opening levels and we may see some capped volatility today.

For today, the levels of 6215 and 6250 are immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports would exit at 6150 levels and further down at 6125.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 56.0147 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.
On the derivative front rollovers continued as the NIFTY February futures shed over 15.94 lakh shares or 11.41% in Open Interest whereas the March futures added 20.73 lakh shares or 55.14% in the Open Interest.

On the Daily Charts, the Markets have neared its pattern resistance levels. There is a minor double top resistance at 6190 levels. This has been created by the gap down opening that the Markets saw on the 27th of January. The Markets are likely to see some resistance between 6190 and 6120 levels. This is likely to cause the Markets to once again see a ranged consolidation or even some minor correction.

All and all, with the session expected to remain dominated with expiry, it is likely to see a range session with some amount of volatility ingrained in it. However, it is best advised to avoid creating any short positions. Sectoral out performance would continue and it is advised to have very select and stock specific approach while protecting profits vigilantly at higher levels. 

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331


Monday, February 24, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, February 24, 2014

We have not been able to come out with Daily Market Trend Guide in regular PDF Format. We have reproduced the section "Market Trend for Today" in text format below. Inconvenience is sincerely regretted.
 
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
The Markets had a buoyant session
on Friday as it reversed all of its its losses and more and ended the day with decent gains making yet another attempt to move past its immediate resistance levels of 100-DMA. Today, expect the Markets to open on a modestly positive note and continue with its up move, at least in the initial session. The Markets might see yet another day of consolidation with the Markets trading in a capped range with positive bias.

For today, the levels of 6180 and 6245 would act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The levels of 6120 and 6090 would act as immediate supports.

The RSI--Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 53.35 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any kind of failure swing. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY February futures have shed over 9.01 lakhs shares or 6.06% in Open Interest and March futures have added over 8.81 lakh shares or 30.64% in Open Interest. This shows rollover have begun and the Markets have been witnessing long rollovers.

The Markets have closed near its 100-DMA again and today it is likely to open a notch above it. It would be critically important for the Markets to maintain levels above of 100-DMA and not to breach it below at Close levels. Overall, in case of some more consolidation, we might see some more range bound and capped trade but the overall trend continues to remain bullish as the under current remains strong. While protecting profits at higher levels, cautious optimism is advised for today.


Milan Vaishnav,