Friday, January 3, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, January 03, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                                   January 03, 2014
After remaining buoyant until late afternoon trade, the Markets suddenly saw a wave of basket selling, primarily marking the activities of FII amid low volumes and it caused the Markets to end the day with significant losses from its intraday highs. The Markets opened on a positive note remained buoyant until afternoon trade while forming the intraday high of 6358.30. The Markets resisted around the 6345 levels on expected lines but in the last hour and half of trade, the Markets saw a huge wave of basket selling by few FIIs. The low volumes aided the fall and the Markets lost over 140-odd points from its day’s high. It went on to give the day’s low of 6211 and finally ended the day at 6221.15 posting a net loss of 80.50 points or 1.28% while forming a higher top and sharply lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Today, we would see some weakness persisting in the Markets in the initial trade. The levels of 50-DMA would now come again in the picture. Expect the Markets to open on a lower note and flirt with its 50-DMA. In case of Markets opening below the 50-DMA levels, it would be extremely critical for the Markets to trade above the 50-DMA levels and maintain that as support at Close in order to avoid any structural weakness. The intraday trajectory would be critically important.

The levels of 6260 and 6310 are immediate resistance on the Charts. The supports exist at 6190 and 6155 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 49.4233 and it still continues to remain neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergences or failure swing. The Daily MACD has reported a negative crossover after yesterday’s decline and it now trades below its signal line. 

On the derivative front, NIFTY January futures have shed over 4.95 lakh shares or 2.50% Open Interest. This shows that there has been offloading of positions but if we try and look at the brighter side, then the reduction in OI interest is not as massive as the fall that it accompanied with. This may lead us to believe that there are equal number of shorts that have been created which has tried to offset the reduction in OI to some extent.

All and all, the Markets may open around its 50-DMA or bit lower than that but it would be critically important for the Markets to maintain the levels of 50-DMA as support at Close. The intraday trajectory would be extremely important. Given shorts in the Markets, we strongly advise you to refrain from shorts. However, fresh positions too should be avoided and taken extremely selectively to maintain liquidity. Overall, cautious outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331



Thursday, January 2, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, January 02, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                                 January 02, 2014
The Markets witnessed yesterday a very lack lustre and listless session yesterday and it spent the entire session in a very narrow range to end the day on a flat note. The Markets opened on a positive note and soon formed its intraday high of 6327.20 in the morning trade. However, low volumes and lack of participation continued in the Markets. The Markets slowly pared its gains to trade flat by afternoon. It briefly dipped into negative in the late morning trade while it gave its intraday low of 6298.25. It came back into the green by the end of the session but ended the day at 6301.65, posting a very negligible loss of 2.35 points or 0.04% while forming a slightly higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Today, we would expect the Markets to behave in a similar manner like that of previous few sessions. Expect the Markets to open on a flat and quiet note and also expect the Markets to see low volumes and lack of participation. This is likely to keep the analysis again similar to that of yesterday and the levels of 6345 would continue to act as immediate top.

For today, the levels of 6345 and 6370 would act as immediate resistance and the levels of 6240 and 6192 are immediate supports on the Charts.

The lead indicators continue to remain intact. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 57.3794 and it continues to remain neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergences or any failure swings. The Daily MACD is bullish as it continues to trade above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY January futures have added a nominal 67,950 shares or 0.34% in Open Interest. We can say that the OI remains more or less unchanged and no decline is registered and therefore no shorts or any offloading of positions is seen in the Markets.

The overall tone of the analysis, as we have been off-repeating in some previous editions remains similar for today as well. The Markets continues to remain structurally intact and trades above all its three DMAs. However, the Markets are seeing a very narrow and capped movement over past few sessions due to holiday season and therefore it is witnessing such sessions due to lack of volumes and participation. Also, the levels of 6345 would continue to act as a immediate top for the Markets and fresh sustainable up move shall occur only after the Markets move past this level.

All and all, the trend remains intact and the Markets would continue to see a ranged movement while trading with a upward bias. There are no triggers for creating any shorts and therefore it should be best avoided. There would be stock specific action seen and selective out performance would occur. Any flip side should be utilized to make fresh purchases. Overall, continuation of positive caution is advised in the Markets for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331


Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, January 01, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                                      January 01, 2014
The Markets had it session yesterday in a quiet year-end mood as it remained in a very capped range on expected lines and ended the day with minor gains. The Markets opened on a positive note but soon drifted to the lows of the day as it dipped into the negative for a very brief period while recording its intraday low of 6287.30. However, it recovered those gains again in a very short time and traded back into the green. It gradually inched up to give its intraday high in the late morning trade at 6317.30. However, after this, the Markets spent its session in a absolutely quiet and range bound manner. It finally ended the day at 6304, posting a minor gain of 12.90 points or 0.21% while forming a lower top but higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Today, expect the Markets to usher in a new year on a quiet and positive note and look for directions. The analysis would remain more or less similar again as we would continue to see lower volumes and also some stock specific activities. The session is largely expected to remain capped and the levels of 6344 would continue to act as immediate resistance for today.

Today, the levels of 6344 and 6370 would act as resistance on the charts whereas the supports are expected lower at 6275 and 6230 levels.

The lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 57.6309 and it continues to remain neutral showing no bullish or bearish divergences or any failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it continues to trade above its signal line. 

On the derivative front, NIFTY January futures have continued to act over 4.94 lakh shares or 2.57% in Open Interest. This is a positive reading as this shows that fresh longs were added yesterday even in a capped and range bound markets and offloading was seen.

Overall, the reading here again remains the same as the Markets continues to trade above all of its DMAs and sees no structural weakness on the Charts so long as it continues to trade above its 50-DMA. However the levels of 6344 would continue to act as immediate resistance and the Markets will have to move past this levels for a sustainable up move.

All and all, the reading signifies that for a momentum to catch up and sustain, the levels of 6344 are required to be breached on the upside. In case of any weakness, the markets will have to trade above the levels of 50-DMA. In the present case, until the Markets moves past the levels of 6344, it is likely to continue to see range bound movements. However ,it is advised to strictly refrain from shorts and use such consolidation for making stock specific purchases. Overall, positive outlook is continued to be advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331



Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, December 31, 2013

MARKET REPORT                                                                      December 31, 2013
The Markets had a quiet and modestly corrective session yesterday as it spent the session in a capped range and finally ended the day with modest losses on lower volumes. The Markets opened on a positive note and soon gave its day’s high of 6344.05 in the early minutes of the trade. After trading positive for a brief period, the Markets pared its gains in the late morning trade and dipped into the green. Thereafter, the Markets spent the entire session in a very narrow range with capped losses. In the end, it saw some more paring of gains as it gave the intraday low of 6273.15. It recovered from those levels and finally ended the day at 6291.10, posting a modest net loss of 22.70 points or 0.36% while forming a higher top but lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Today’s analysis for the Markets remains more or less on similar lines like yesterday. Today, we are expected to see a modestly positive opening in the Markets. However, given the year-end holidays, the participation in the Markets is likely to remain lower and we might again see a range bound session with low volumes.

The levels of 6340 and 6365 would act as immediate resistance levels on the Daily Charts while the levels of 6260 and 6225 would act as immediate supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 56.6628 and it continues to remain neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergences or any failure swings.  The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish is at trades above its signal line. 

On the derivative front, the NIFTY January futures have shed over 4.95 lakh shares or 2.51% in Open Interest. This is little negative as it shows that some profit taking was done yesterday which has resulted in shedding of open interest.

As we have often mentioned in our previous editions of Daily Market Trend Guide, that the patterns on the Daily Chart remain intact. The Markets see no structural weakness as it continues to trade above all of its DMAs at present. However, after yesterday’s session the levels of 6344 have become an intermediate top for the Markets. In order to continue with the up move, it would be very important for the Markets to move past the levels of 6345 and sustain above that.

All and all, we will see modestly positive opening but the overall session is likely to remain range bound with lower volumes. The levels of 6345 would be critical to watch  for as it would act as intermediate top in very short term. Markets will have to move past that level before it continues with its up move. However, the overall trend remans intact. Any downside should be used to make selective purchases. Stock specific and cautiously positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331