Saturday, December 28, 2013

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, December 27, 2013



MARKET REPORT                                                                                December 27, 2013

The Markets had a relatively quiet and range bound recovery session yesterday as it spent the day in a capped ranged and ended it with minor gains. The Markets opened on a flat and modestly positive note and literally spent the entire session in 20-odd points range moving nowhere. The Markets traded in the most part of the day with lack of directional consensus. However, in the last hour and half of trade, the Markets saw a sudden spurt as it gave its day’s high of 6302.75 and saw equal sudden paring of those gains to slip into negative for a very brief period. After giving day’s low of 6259.45, it came back in to the green and ended the day at 6278.90, while forming a parallel  bar on the Daily High Low Charts.




MARKET TREND FOR TODAY


Today, we can expect a equally quiet opening in the Markets today. Today, the Markets are expected to open on a flat to mildly negative note and look for directions. The trading in January series is likely to open on a subdued note and the Markets can see lack of volumes due to current year-end holidays. The Session is once again expected to remain range bound.

The session is likely to see the levels of 6310 and 6345 as its immediate resistance and the levels of 6250 and 6210 are immediate supports on the Daily Charts.


The lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 56.4490 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any kind of failure swings. The Daily MACD continues with its positive crossover reported yesterday and it remains bullish as it trades above its signal line. 


On the derivative front, the NIFTY January series have continued to add open interest. This signifies that there has been no major offloading at all in any of the previous two sessions and the Markets have kept its underlying trend intact so far.


Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have continued to trade comfortably above all of its DMAs. The overall conclusion remains similar to that of our last few editions that the Markets have managed to keep the underlying trend intact and has not yet shown any structural  breach on the Daily Charts. This leads to the similar conclusion that we have been mentioning in our previous editions that the so long as the Markets keep its head above its 50-DMA, we will not see any significant weakness creeping in.


All and all, today as well, we will expect the Markets to remain range bound with the levels of 50-DMA acting as major support at the Close levels. While continuing to avoid shorts, it is advised to continue to use the downside / range bound consolidation to make selective purchases. Overall, it is advised to continue to approach the day with cautious optimism.


Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,



+91-98250-16331





  

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, December 26, 2013

MARKET REPORT                                                                                December 26, 2013
After remaining flat for the most part of the session the Markets slipped in to the red in the second half of the session to end the day with nominal losses. The Markets opened on a modestly positive note while it gave its day’s high of 6301.50 in the early minutes of the trade. Thereafter, the Markets spent the first half of the session trading in extremely narrow range without any directional consensus. However, the second half of the Markets saw it dipping into the red as it went on to give the day’s low of 6262. The Markets again spent the rest of the session in a very narrow range and ended the day at 6268.40, posting a minor loss of 16.10 points or 0.26% while forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Yesterday was a trading holiday on account of Christmas. Today, the Markets will wake up from the slumber on a very flat and lousy note and look for directions. Expect the Markets to open on a very flat note and trade in a capped range in the initial session. Today is the expiry day for the current derivative series and the session certainly remain dominated with rollover centric activities.

Today, the levels of 6310 and 6335 would act as resistance on the upside whereas the levels of 6225 and 6205 are expected to act as immediate supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 55.7239 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD is bullish as today it has reported a positive crossover as expected in the previous edition of our Daily Market Trend Guide and it now trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, rollovers continued as the NIFTY January futures went on to add 27.09 lakh shares or over 20.47% in Open Interest.

Going back to pattern analysis, the Markets are pretty much structurally sound as we have often mentioned this our previous editions of Daily Market Trend Guide as it continues to trade above all of its Daily Moving Averages. Even if the rollover activities exert some pressure on the Markets, it is likely to remain very temporary in nature so long as it trades above its 50-DMA levels.

All and all, today as well, even if we see a flat and drowsy opening, the session may see some volatility on account of rollovers. This can even make a range bound markets appear little volatile. We continue to advice you to strictly avoid short while continue to make selective purchases with any available downside while protecting existing profits. Overall, continuation of positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331



Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, December 24, 2013



MARKET REPORT                                                                                   December 24, 2013

The Markets continued to remain in a consolidation mood while it continued it rollovers and ended the day on a flat note with modest gains. The Markets opened on a positive note but spent most part of the session in a 25-odd point capped range. The Markets remained very much sideways right from morning trade until later afternoon trade. Post opening modestly positive, the Markets had no directional consensus and thus while remaining sideways, it continued to trade in a very narrow band on lower than average volumes. The Markets saw a mild spurt in the late afternoon trade as it gave its day’s high of 6317.50. It did not sustain this gain at all and pared it equally fast and suddenly while it traded flat, and even dipped into the red for a brief while giving day’s low of 6266.95. It finally ended the day at 6284.50, posting a minor gain of 10.25 points or 0.16% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.



MARKET TREND FOR TODAY


Tomorrow being a trading holiday on account of Christmas, today we enter the penultimate day of expiry of current derivative series. Today, the markets are expected to open on a flat note and look for directions. The directions and trend of the Markets is likely to remain more or less like yesterday as they are expected to trade in a range with lower volumes.


Today, the levels of 6310 an 6345 are immediate resistance levels on the Charts. The support exists at 6260 and 6235 levels.


The lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 57.0769 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line. But it is moving towards reporting a positive crossover in coming days which would be a bullish indicator.


On the derivative front, the rollovers continued across markets as NIFTY January futures added over 52.48 lakh shares or 65.69% in Open Interest.


Going by the technical charts, the Markets are likely to remain in a range bound consolidation while keeping their overall trend intact. Though we may see some volatility creeping in causing sharp movements on either side driven by rollovers, the overall trend remains intact as the Markets have not shown any sign of weakness or any kind of bearish developments on the Daily Charts. 


All and all,  we can expect a flat opening in the markets followed by a range bound trade at least in the morning session. Though intraday trajectory would be important to decide the trend for today, the session would certainly remain dominated with rollover centric activities. While keeping exposures at moderate levels, cautious optimism is advised for today.


Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,



+91-98250-16331






Monday, December 23, 2013

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, December 23, 2013

MARKET REPORT                                                                                   December 23, 2013
The Markets staged a smart pullback, much on the lines as analysed in our Friday’s edition of Daily Market Trend Guide as it opened positive, surged during the session to end the day with decent gains. The Markets opened positive on expected lines and remained range bound with capped gains in the morning trade. However, in remaining session from afternoon until the end, it gained some more strength and surged further. It kept making gradual intraday highs as it went on to give the day’s high of 6284.50. It maintained those levels and finally ended the day at 6274.85, posting a very decent gain of 107.60 points or 1.74% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Today, expect the Markets to open on a modestly positive note and continue with its up move, at least in the initial session. The Markets are expected to open positive and it would be important for the Markets to remain positive or else at least consolidate to capitalize on Friday’s pullback. The intraday trajectory would remain critically important. The levels of 50-DMA have so far successfully held out as support at Close levels.

For today, the levels of 6310 and 6345 would act as immediate resistance on the Daily Charts. The supports would exist at 6250 and 6215 levels.

All lead indicators primarily remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 56.4518 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it still trades below its signal line.  On the Weekly Charts, the RSI is neutral at 59.2557. The Weekly MACD is bullish as it continues to trade above its signal line. 

 On the derivative front, NIFTY showed some rollover activity as the December futures shed over 6 lakh shares or 3.16% in Open Interest while the January futures added over 20.93 lakh shares or 35.50% in Open Interest.

Going by the pattern analysis of the Daily Charts, the NIFTY remains very much in intact structure as it continues to trade above all of its DMAs  while the levels of 50-DMA has successfully continued to act as support at Close levels.  Given this, it should not be a surprise as the Markets continues with its up move and even if it does not, it is likely that it sees some amount of mere consolidation and no major profit taking.

All and all, the undercurrent continues to remain buoyant and there is no likelihood of any major correction coming in. At the most we can see some minor profit taking from higher levels or some amount of consolidation. In the present case, it is strongly recommended that while continuing to avoid shorts, profits in existing positions should be protected vigilantly at higher levels. Overall, continuance of positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331