Thursday, November 3, 2011

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, November 03, 2011 (Published in the Morning before the Markets opened)

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets had a flat session yesterday, but traded almost as precisely as expected and analyzed in our yesterday’s edition of Daily Market Trend Guide.
 
The Markets opened lower following weak global cues but the levels of 100-DMA continued to act as support as the Markets expectedly recovered from the opening lows as the session progressed. Though it came off its highs, it ended the day flat at 5258.45, posting a negligible 0.50 points or 0.01% and in the process have formed a almost similar top but lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
 
Today is going to be no different and the Markets are expected to act in similar fashion as yesterday. The Markets are likely to see negative opening again but the levels of 5232 which is the 100-DMA and the levels of 5190-5200 (intraday) shall continue to act as supports. The behaviour of the Markets vis-à-vis these levels should be observed and the intraday trajectory that it forms shall be critically important today.
 
All lead Indices still continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 58.9238 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD too continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.
 
NIFTY Futures have added a nominal 166150 shares in Open Interest. Apart from this, most of the Sectoral Indices recovered from their day’s low and most of the Stock were seen adding opening interest. This signifies both, discomfort at lower levels and thereby, some fresh buying too in selective stocks.
 
Today, again like yesterday, the Markets may see lower opening but there are again chances that Markets spends the session recovering from the opening lows. The Markets are trading comfortably above the important support levels and no structural breach has been seen on the Charts. In view of this, yesterday’s policy, i.e. avoiding shorts and remaining highly selective on fresh purchases may be followed. Overall, cautious but positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav, 
Consulting Technical Analyst, 
+91-9825016331 

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, November 02, 2011 (Published in the Morning before the Markets opened)

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets had a session yesterday wherein it continued to correct as it ended the day with losses forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Post gap up opening and closing on Friday, the Markets have resisted at its 200-DMA and since then have corrected in the following to sessions.

For today, following weak global markets and following weak news from Euro zone, we can expect the Markets to open on a negative note and look for directions. After weak opening today, the intraday trajectory that the Markets form shall be critically important to decide the trend for today as well as coming sessions.

For today, the levels of 5235 and 5205 are expected to act as supports and the levels of 5295 and 5345 are likely resistances on the up side.
All lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 58.8999 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.

At this point, we need to take into account few important things. With the Friday’s gap up gains of 458 points, the Markets had created a big gap on the Daily High Low Charts. While doing so, it had resisted on the upside near its 200-DMA and it had moved past its 100-DMA with a  gap at which it was expected to resist. In last two sessions, the Markets filled up it gap and this can be termed a technical reaction apart from global news flows that we are having. Yesterday also, it took support at its 100-DMA and today also, with the negative opening the levels of 100-DMA of 5235 shall continue to act as major support. Even in the event of Markets opening negative and momentarily dipping below the levels of 5235, another major patter support comes in at 5170, which the Markets broke after trading in range for over two months. All and all, even if the Markets opening lower, it is expected to trade near support and is strongly expected to recover as the session progresses depending heavily on the intraday trajectory that it forms post opening or during the day. It is strongly advised to avoid short positions as lot of shorts are seen in the Markets. Cautious but positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- October 31, 2011 (Published in the Morning before the Markets opened)

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets saw a gap up opening on Friday on back of positive technicals as well as positive news flow from the Euro zone and in the process ended the day with robust gains and also formed a sharply higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

The Markets opened some 150-odd points up and traded in the 20-point range for the entire session and sustained those opening gains in the end.

Today, we can expect a day of consolidation in the Markets. On Friday, the Markets saw resistance coming in at its 200-DMA. For today, expect the Markets to open on a flat note and look for directions.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 66.0531 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any negative divergence. The Weekly MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line. On the Weekly Charts too, the RSI, at 53.1666 has made a new high in last 14-days which is bullish. Further Weekly RSI has set a new 14-day high whereas NIFTY has not, and this is Bullish Divergence on Weekly Charts. The weekly MACD has signalled a fresh bullish sign as it now trades above its signal line.

Having said this, the consolidation is still on the Cards. The NIFTY has 200-DMA at 5408 at this is likely to act as temporary resistance and the Markets will have to move past this levels for fresh continuation of up move. Further, on the Weekly Charts, the levels of 5421 is the Weekly 100-DMA of the Markets. So, it is greatly expected that the Markets will no consolidate in the 50-odd points levels before breaking out further.

All and all, the lead indicators remain perfectly in place which keeps the under current buoyant. However, there is likelihood of consolidation at current levels as mentioned. Stock specific approach is advised. Though intraday trajectory would be critically important for today’s trend, some minor sideward movement or some volatility due to mild profit taking cannot be ruled out. But again, as mentioned, under current remains buoyant. Positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
 +91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- October 28, 2011 (Published in the Morning before the Markets opened)

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets, though it remained flat and in sideward trajectory in the Mahurat session, (it remains so in most of such mahurat sessions), it has laid a foundation for a breakout as it moved past the levels of 5170.

Since the month of August, the Markets have remained in a broad trading range forming a rectangle of broad range of 5170 on the upper side and 4720 on the lower side. The Markets, after almost two and half months have attempted to breakout on the upper side as it moved past the levels of 5170 and sustained above that in the mahurat session.

For today, expect the Markets to open on a stronger note and look for directions. Today, the Markets are expected to open on a stronger note and are expected to continue with their up move. For today, the levels of 5240 and 5475 are expected to act as supports.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the Daily Charts is 59.3024 and it has reached its highest value in last 14 days which is bullish. It does not show any negative divergence. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it continues to trade above its signal line.

The important thing today would be to see the behaviour of the markets vis-à-vis the levels of 5241, which is the 100-DMA of the Markets. The Markets are expected to give a gap up opening but are likely to resist or consolidate a bit around these levels. Until the Markets moves past these levels, it is advised to protect long profits and maintain a stock specific  approach for today. However, this might be just a brief resistance as under current remains strong and trend intact. Positive outlook is advised for today.


Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, October 24, 2010 (Published in the Morning before the Markets opened)

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets saw a sluggish session on Friday as it failed to sustain its gains from the first half of the session as it pared its gains, dipped into the red and ended the day with moderate losses despite positive global Markets. In the process, the Markets have still formed a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low charts.

Even with the negative close, there as been no structural breach on the Charts and thus, the Markets are again likely to take cue from positive global Markets and favorable technicals to move up again today. However, this remains a expiry week with one holiday so larger rollover activities may be seen and the session may likely remain dominated with rollover centric activity.

For today, expect the Markets to open on a gap up note and look for direction and the intraday trajectory would be critically important. The Markets are likely to open on a strong note and it would be important for the Markets to maintain that trajectory.

For today, the levels of 5120 and 5170 shall act as resistance and the levels of 5010 and 4980 shall act as support.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 51.4943 and is neutral and shows no negative divergence or failure swing. The RSI on Weekly Charts too is neutral without any failure swing or negative divergence.

The Daily MACD is bullish as it trades above its signal line. The Weekly MACD trades below its signal line but is likely to report positive crossover this week. On the Weekly Charts too, the Markets have been in Rectangle Trading range with the levels of 5170 being a resistance. Thus, the Markets continues to be in this trading range and as often mentioned, fresh sustainable up move shall occur only above 5170 levels and thus until then volatility will continue to remain. However, the bias certainly remains on the upside. All and all, it is strongly advised to avoid shorts and still continue to remain stock specific until the Markets are in range while protecting profits. Positive caution is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com