Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, September 30, 2011 (Published in the morning before the Markets opened)

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets showed remarkable recovery after opening quiet and continuing to consolidate in the first half of the session as it recovered and went on to close near the high point of the day and in the process formed a  higher top and slightly lower bottom on the Daily High Low charts.

Yesterday was an expiry day wherein we saw good amount of rollovers in both NIFTY and Stock futures as over 65% NIFTY and 68% market wide rollovers were reported.

Today, again we may again see a subdued opening after over 125-odd point pullback from the day’s low and the Markets may again consolidate in the initial session.

Thus, we can fairly expect the Markets again to open on a flat to mildly negative and quiet note and look for directions and would grossly depend upon the intraday trajectory in the initial session to decide the trend for today.

For today, the levels of 5048 and 5085 are likely to act as resistance and the levels of 4980 and 4965 are expected to act as supports. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 49.2131 and is neutral as it  shows no negative divergence or a failure swing.

The MACD has shown a positive crossover as it now trades above its signal line and this is BULLISH.

Having said this, the Markets are likely to open on a mildly negative and quiet note but likely to decouple later and improve as the session progresses and we may see the Markets continue its pullback like yesterday. The Markets, after taking support in the range of 4720-60 twice, continues to trade in a broad trading range with immediate top at 5140-5170 levels.

All and all, quiet start expected but chances of improvement are seen later. The Markets may continue to trade in a capped range and bit volatile in the initial trade. As like yesterday, stock specific purchases may be made while avoiding shorts. Positive caution is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, September 29, 2011 (Published in the morning before the Markets opened)

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets consolidated in yesterday’s session on expected lines and ended the day moving in a capped range with moderate losses. However, the Markets have formed a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Lox Charts.

For today, expect the Markets to continue to consolidate. The Markets are expected again to open on a mildly negative note and would again continue to look for directions depending very much on the intraday trajectory that it forms.

Today, we enter into expiry day of the current derivative series and thus, we may continue to see the session remain dominated with rollover centric activities. Today, with the Markets expected to open on a mildly negative note, the levels of 5006 an d 5145 shall act as resistance and the levels of 4905 and 4880 shall continue to act as supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 45.1641 and it remains neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings.

The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line.

The Markets showed a pullback of over 200-odd points from its day’s low on Monday before moderately consolidating yesterday. Today, it is expected to continue to do so. Also, the expiry shall keep the session dominated with rollover centric activities. The Stock and NIFTY Futures have shown net addition in Open Interest signifying creation of shorts and also some amount of long rollover in next series. The Market wide rollovers have remained around 59% as against 60% in the previous month, more or less remaining in line. The Markets shall continue to trade in a range today with some amount of volatility ingrained in it.

All and all, Markets shall have sustainable up move only above 5170 but do not show any triggers on the downside either. This keeps markets in a broad trading range with overall bias on the upside. While avoiding shorts and vigilantly protecting profits on higher levels, stock specific activity with cautious outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, September 28, 2011 (Published in the morning before the Markets opened)

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets yesterday continued with its pullback and ended the day with robust gain and in the process formed a sharply higher top and higher bottom on the Daily high Low Charts.

The Markets, at yesterday’s close, have move up over –Points NIFTY from the intraday low of Monday.

For today, after this pullback from the support levels by almost over 200-odd points, the Markets are poised for a brief consolidation.

Following this, expect the Markets for a quiet opening today and look for directions. After opening on a quiet and flat note, the Markets shall depend upon intraday trajectory that it shall form today as this would be important to decide the trend for today, as the Markets continues to trade in a very broad trading range of 5170-4970.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is  46.4165 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or a failure swing. The Daily MACD is bearish as it trades below its signal line.

On the Candles,  A Rising Window  occurred. This formation occurs when the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow. This signifies continuation of a Bullish Trend.

Having said this, it can fairly be concluded that the Markets may consolidate again for a brief while but overall trend remains intact. However, we enter today into penultimate day of expiry of the current derivative Series and thus, we can also expect the session to remain fairly dominated with rollover centric activity. Such rollover centric activity may also make the Markets see some pressure and may also see some amount of volatility ingrained in it.

All and all, it is still advised to refrain from shorts as technical indicators suggests the trend being intact and the Markets trading in a broad range despite not ruling out some amount of  consolidation. It is advised to remain highly stock specific in action while vigilantly continuing to protect profits at higher levels. Positive cautions is advised.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, September 27, 2011 (Published in the morning before the Markets opened)

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets had a highly volatile session yesterday, wherein it ended the day with moderate losses, even after a big attempt to recover from its day’s low. In this process, it has continued to form a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

For today, expect to see the respite from the weakness that we have been seeing. Taking cues from favorable technicals and supportive global cues, expect the Markets to open on positive note and trade in the positive, at least in the initial trade.

The Markets are expected to open on a positive note and its trend for today as well as for coming session would critical depend upon the levels of 4780 which is a trend line support and the levels of 4920 which is a major Double Bottom Support. For today, with the levels mentioned above acting a major and strong support range, the levels of 4890 and 4965 may act as resistance.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 37,8384 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish, but it shows no negative divergence. The Daily MACD has just reported a negative  crossover and it is turned bearish as it now trades below its signal line.

Having said this, we need to take into consideration, the following. The Markets have taken a strong support twice in the important pattern support rage mentioned above from where the Markets have rebounded twice. Having said that, we have seen the up move coming in yesterday from a huge bout of short covering. Having said this, it would be necessary to see that this short covering gets converted into buying. In fact, come amount of long rollovers were seen into the next series as we have entered into expiry week.

All and all, with the Markets showing resilience near the mentioned support zone, it is likely that we continue with the recovery today as stock specific purchases may likely to be seen. While continuing to avoid shorts, positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, September 26, 2011 (Published in the morning before the Markets opened)

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

After spending nearly entire session in consolidation, the Markets on Friday eased little more as it ended the day posting a net loss of 55.90 points, and in the process forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

For today, expect the Markets to open on a flat note and look for directions. Today, we can fairly expect the action to be quited and muted but at the same time, we can also fairly expect stability to return to the Markets and we are likely to see some respite from the weakness that we have been seeing. However, the Markets shall continue to critically depend upon the intraday trajectory that it forms.

For today, the levels of 4905 and 4965 shall act as resistance and the levels of 4940 and 4905 shall act as supports.

The RSI--Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 39.2270 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. However, it does not show any negative divergence. The Daily MACD still continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line. On the Weekly Charts, the RSI is neutral at 35 and it shows no negative divergence or failure swings.

All and all, NIFTY and Stock Futures have went on to add short postions to the extent of 23% in last three session and this signifies creation of big short positions in the system. Baring the movement of some 50-odd points in NIFTY, the Markets is resting at important pattern support on both Daily and Weekly Charts. It is continued to be advised to avoid shorts and maintain liquidity to protect positions. Selective buying may be done. Overall, cautious optimism is advised today as there is no structural damage on the Charts.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com