Friday, June 10, 2011

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, June 10, 2011

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY


The Markets in the yesterday’s session remained quite direction less as it moved in a narrow range and ended the day with negligible losses on low volumes and in the process have formed a marginally lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

We draw attention to our edition of Daily Markets Trend Guide dated Monday wherein we had categorically expected this week to be a range bound and directionless week and this is what it has precisely turned out to be as of now in absence of any major triggers.

For today, expect the Markets to open on a flat note and again continue to heavily depend upon volumes and intraday trajectory to find directions with the levels of 5565 and 5605 continuing to act as resistances and the levels of 5505 and 5480 acting as supports.

The lead indicators continue to remain neutral. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 48.7587 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.

Having said that the Markets are lacking any triggers on either side, it is likely to react today to the IIP numbers that will be announced later today. It is also likely to find a major trigger in the interest rate announcements later coming week. The trend for today will remain highly influenced to the reaction to the IIP numbers which are expected to be moderate. We continue to advice to selectively pick up stocks as the activity is likely to remain stock specific. The sustainable up move in the Markets shall occur only after Markets closing above its 100DMA currently at 5567 and it move further above 5600. Until this happens, its going to remain in a range and bit volatile. While remaining selective in the markets, cautiously optimism is advised.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Thursday, June 9, 2011

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, June 09, 2011

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY


The Markets spent  listless session yesterday trading on very low volumes and ended the day with modest losses and in the process formed a lower top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Today, again, it is going to be no different. The Markets will continue to show resilience and will continue to trade / consolidate in a very capped range with the levels mentioned hereinafter continuing to act as resistance.

For today, expect the Markets to open on a flat to mildly negative note and continue to look for directions depending heavily on the intraday trajectory that it forms and the volumes / participation which has constantly remained a concern in past couple of sessions. For today, the levels of 5570 and 5605 shall continue to act as resistance and the levels of 5515 and 5480 shall continue to act as supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 49.2782 and it shows no negative divergence or failure swings and is therefore neutral. The Daily MACD is bullish as it continues to trade above its signal line.

The F&O data suggests the FIIs adding Open Interest in NIFTY and Stock futures signifying creation of shorts and remaining nominal net buyers in Cash segment.

From this, we can fairly conclude that in absence of major triggers the levels of 5570-5605 shall continue to act as resistance and at the same time, low volumes signifies discomfort even at lower levels. Under such circumstances, the Markets usually remain volatile and in capped range. They are likely to break on the upper side only after it breaches the levels of 5600 significantly, and until this happens likely to remain range bound. Again, highly stock specific approach with cautious optimism is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, June 08, 2011

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY


The markets showed resilience against the global weakness as it rose from the opening lows to end the day with moderate gains, though on low volumes and in the process have formed a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

In our Monday’s edition of Daily Market Trend Guide, we had categorically mentioned that this week would remain a consolidation week with the Markets continuing to remain in a broad range in absence of any triggers and this is precisely happening.

Today also, expect the Markets to open on a moderately negative note. Again, it is likely to open low and then spend the day recovering and once again would largely depend upon the volumes and the intraday trajectory that it forms would be critically important.

For today, the levels of 5575  and 5605 will continue to remain a resistance today and the levels of 5520 and 5480 shall again continue to act as supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 51.8705 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.

The F&O data shows continuation of addition of Open Interest in both NIFTY and Stock futures. With the increase in premiums, its evident that there is clear discomfort at lower levels.

All and all, the markets are likely to continue to show resilience to global weakness. In absence of any negative triggers, the Markets are likely to remain in broad range of 5490-5605. It is also likely that post negative opening, it may again spend the session in improving from lower levels. Stock specific purchases may be made at lower levels strictly avoiding shorts. Cautious outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, June 07, 2011

DAILY MARKET TREND GUIDE

The Markets ended the day yesterday on a positive note after it reversed its trajectory in the second half of the trade. The Markets opened on a moderately negative note, but ended the day with modest gains but as expected the volumes remained a concerned as they were lower than average, and in the process, the markets have formed a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Today is going to be no different than yesterday. The Markets are expected to open on a moderately negative note and will look for directions depending as usual on the intraday trajectory that it forms and the volumes. With the Markets expected to open on a moderately negative note, the levels of 5575 and 5605 shall continue to act as resistance and the levels of 5505 and 5480 shall continue to act as supports.

The lead indicators too point towards no direction. The RSI--Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 49.8557 and it shows no negative divergence or failure swings and is therefore neutral. The Daily MACD is bullish as it trades above its signal line.

Though FIIs have remained net sellers in F&O segment on a small note, the overall Open Interest has increased with the NIFTY premium dropping to 2 points from 6 points. This again indicates creation of short positions. Given this reading with the above mentioned technical reading, the markets are likely to remain range bound and are likely to trade in a range, bit volatile and on lower volumes. However, the bias remains on the upside.

In light of this, like yesterday, we continue to advise to refrain from creating naked shorts and use the weakness to make very stock specific purchases and the action would largely remain stock specific. With no triggers on the either side, a cautiously optimistic approach is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Monday, June 6, 2011

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, June 06, 2011

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY


The Markets on Friday had an strong and buoyant opening which eventually fizzled out as the Markets ended the day with modest losses and in the process have formed a higher top but lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Having a close look at the Daily and Weekly charts shows that we can expect a listless and range bound week with no major trigger on the either side.

For today, expect the Markets to open on a moderately negative note. Since the Markets expected to open on a moderately negative note, it is again, as in previous couple of sessions, all likely to remain dependent on the volumes it trades and the intraday trajectory it forms for the trend of the day. For today, the levels of 5577 and 5605 are likely to act as resistance and the levels of 5500 and 5480 are likely to act as support.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 48.5870 and it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to trade positive, above its signal line.
On the Weekly Charts, the RSI is 47.7443 and it also neutral as it does not show any negative divergence or failure swings. The Weekly MACD, however, continues to trade below its signal line.

The NIFTY has ended the week on a moderately positive note. Also, as explained there are no triggers on the either side as the lead indicators are neutral, but certainly has bias towards upside as the Weekly MACD is improving and the Daily MACD is  bullish.  The Markets are expected to remain in a broad range of 5480-5625 and during this range, it may display volatile movement on lower volumes. It is advised to avoid short positions and the only stock specific activity is advised. Dips may be used to make selective purchases. Cautious optimism is advised for today..

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com