Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, April 29, 2011

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets yesterday failed to capitalize on positive global  cues as it opened positive but soon transformed itself into falling negative trajectory to end yet another session with losses and in the process have formed a sharply lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Today, again, expect a flat to negative opening in the Markets following slightly weak technicals and muted global markets. Today, with the Markets expected to open on a slightly negative note, the levels of 5825 and 5860 shall act as resistance and the levels of 5750 an 5735 shall act as supports.

It is important to note at this point that linking negative opening to the muted global cues would be improper as the global markets have clearly outperformed the domestic markets this week.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 51.4963 and is again neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line. On the candles, no negative formation is still seen.

The markets have clearly underperformed its global peers and so far as technical indicators goes, they are more neutral to bearish than heavily bearish. The another important thing to note at this point is that the Markets have important support at Close at 5748 which is the 200-DMA of the Markets.

So, it is very much likely that the Markets may see a limited downside from these levels and might trade in a range with the levels of 5900-5940 acting as immediate top. The Markets are likely to forma broad trading range of 5740-5940 levels and remain in this  broad trading range in absence of any triggers on either side. This will result in likelihood of range bound sessions. Stock specific approach with cautiously positive outlook is advised for today.

  

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, April 28, 2011

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets expectedly remained tentative and in downward trajectory after resisting at 5900 levels and ended the day with modest losses and in the process have formed similar top and a higher bottom on the Daily High Low charts.

Today, since the Markets ended at the low point of the day yesterday, it should open on a negative note and trade negative at least in the initial session. However, given the positive global markets, we may see flat to positive opening in the Markets today.

Thus, with the Markets expected to open on a flat to positive note, the trend would again depend upon the intraday trajectory that it will form. Also, today being the expiry day of the current series, the session shall remain dominated with rollover activities. For today, the levels of 5880 and 5925 shall act as resistance and the levels of 5805 and 5775 shall act as supports.

All lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 55.5756 and it continues to remain neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The MACD however, continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line.

The Markets may open on positive note and trade positive in the initial trade following positive global cues but, as often mentioned in our previous editions, sustainable up move shall occur only above 5900-5950 levels. Until then all we will see would be intermittent short covering or target based buying until 5900-5950 levels.

All and all, it is continued to advised to protect profits in all long position at higher levels and fresh positions may be initiated only very selective note. In order to avoid any weakness, the Markets will have to remain in positive trajectory to capitalize on positive opening. Positive  but cautious outlook is advised for today. 

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, April 27, 2011

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Taking cue from weak technicals, the Markets opened weak yesterday and also expectedly dipped deep into the red but saw a very smart recovery in the second half of the session to close with nominal losses and in the process have still formed a lower top and sharply lower bottom.

Technically speaking, since the Markets have closed near the high point of the day, it is expected to open on a positive note and trade positive at least in the initial trade.

With the Markets expected to open on a positive note, this is also going to be supported with the stable and positive global markets. However, the intraday trajectory that the Markets forms and its behavior vis-à-vis the levels of 5900 and 5944 shall decide the trend for the day as they will act as resistance levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 58.6475 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergences or a failure swings. The Daily MACD however remains negative and bearish as it trades below its signal line.

On Candles, again  A Spinning Top occurred given the minimal difference in the opening and closing values of the Markets. This is a potential of the prices losing momentum.

Given all this technical reading and also given the important announcements awaited in US and also given the fact that today is the penultimate day of expiry of the current series, we may see tentative moods in the markets and there are chances that the Markets may take some breather around 5900 levels in case of buoyant opening.

All and all, it is still advised to remain stock specific and protect profits at higher levels and longs should be cautiously initiated on very selective basis only above 5900 and sustainable up move shall occur only above 5944. Positive caution is advised for today.

  

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, April 26, 2011

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets yesterday spent the day in a very narrow range and ended the day with modest losses and in the process have formed a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low charts.

Technically speaking, since the Markets have closed near the low point of the day, they are expected to open weak and trade negative, at least in the initial trade.

However, the markets are expected to open on a flat to mildly negative note again and look for directions.

For today, with the Markets expected to open flat to mildly negative, the levels of 5855 are expected to be critical levels to watch for and the behavior of the Markets vis-à-vis this levels shall decide the trend for the day. The levels of 5900 and 5925 shall act as resistance and the levels of 5830 and 5770 shall act as supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 59.1847 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bearish as it trades below its signal line.

On the Candles, A Spinning Top has occurred. During a rally or near highs, such formation signals a potential weakness and the loss of momentum.

Apart from the above reading, there is a falling trend line drawn from the top of 6135 levels joining two tops and this line meets the value of 5855 today. If the Markets slips below this level, it may bring in further weakness.

All and all, there are chances of the Markets continuing to consolidate and remain direction less and weak with a bias towards downside. Also, for any sustainable up move, the Markets will have to move past the levels of 5944. It is thus advised to continue with the stock specific approach with protection of profit at higher levels. Outlook with high degree of caution is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, April 25, 2011

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The session on Thursday remained positive but traded in a  very narrow range and came off its highs to end the day with moderate gains but in the process have formed a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

One of the minor negative for the Markets is that it closed after it came off from its highs. For today, expect the Markets to open on a flat to mildly negative note and look for directions. As it is the case during previous sessions, the intraday trajectory that it forms shall be critical to decide the trend for today as well as for coming week.

For today, with the Markets expected to open on a flat to mildly negative note, the levels of 5944 shall continue to act as immediate top and thereby resistance, The supports exists at 5840 and 5795.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 60.0384 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD however, continues to be bearish as it trades below its signal line.

On the Candles, there are mixed signals. On one hand, A Doji Star occurred. This often signals a reversal of pattern, however, a confirmation is required. On the other hand, A Rising Window occurred. This is a potentially bullish sign.

Going by Chart pattern Analysis, there is a strong resistance in the 5944-5950 range and for any sustainable up move, the markets will have to move past and sustain above those levels.

All and all, with the sustainable up move coming only after 5944-5950 levels, highly stock specific and cautious approach is advised for today that too with policy of continuation of protection of profits at higher levels. Today, as volumes have remained a concern, there are chances of Markets forming a negative trajectory later, after some time of opening. Stock specific cautious approach advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com